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美国消费习惯生变,零售股中藏风险!本周警惕这只股票
美股研究社· 2025-03-04 10:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, highlighting the impact of tariffs, inflation, and economic fundamentals on major indices, while focusing on specific companies like Costco and Foot Locker as potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][21]. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with major indices showing monthly declines due to multiple negative factors, including tariff policies and inflation concerns. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 1% last week and 1.4% in February, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4%, marking its largest monthly decline since April 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1% last week but still recorded a 1.6% monthly drop [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with expectations of 156,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.0%. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are expected to speak this week [5]. Company Focus: Costco - Costco is set to release its Q2 earnings report for fiscal year 2024 on March 6, with the stock price expected to experience significant volatility, projected at 4.4% based on options market data [8][10]. - Analysts have generally optimistic views on Costco's performance, with 15 upward revisions to earnings expectations and only 5 downward adjustments prior to the earnings release [10]. - The market anticipates Costco's earnings per share (EPS) to reach $4.08, a 4.1% increase from $3.92 in the same period last year, with revenue expected to grow by 9.9% to $63 billion, driven by strong grocery sales and high membership renewal rates [13]. Company Focus: Foot Locker - Foot Locker is facing significant challenges, with analysts predicting an EPS of $0.72 and a revenue decline of 2.5% to $2.32 billion due to high inflation and reduced discretionary income affecting consumer demand [21]. - The company is expected to lower its earnings outlook for the upcoming quarter, as traditional retail models struggle against the shift towards online shopping and direct-to-consumer sales [22]. - Foot Locker's stock closed at $17.32, marking a 52-week low, with a year-to-date decline of 20.4%. The company has a financial stability score of 1.5 out of 5, indicating significant operational and financial challenges [22][23].