又到了每年的这个时候。 距离2025"进化的力量·刘润年度演讲"，只剩最后的一个月了。 按照惯例，我也正式进入了"闭关"状态，不出差，不开会，不见客户，全身心地筹备今年的年度演讲稿。 未来的一个月，我就只干这一件事。 当然，这么干，是有代价的。这意味着，我肯定要掉一层皮。也意味着，"润米咨询"这家公司，每年都有一个月是不能营业的。所以，很多人会问，为什 么要用一个月的时间筹备？会不会太久了？这一个月，具体要做些什么？ 其实，没有什么特别的秘密。今天，我们就来聊聊。也当是给今年的年度演讲，预个热。 为什么要用一个月的时间筹备？ 因为，需要梳理的内容，确实是多。 准确来讲，年度演讲的筹备时间，并不是一个月，而是一年。从去年年度演讲结束的那一刻起，今年年度演讲的准备工作，就已经开始了。 因为我始终相信，高质量的输出，一定来自于大量高质量的输入。所以，我会用11个月的时间，疯狂输入。再用一个月的闭关时间，从11个月的输入里， 提炼精华。这样，最终提炼出来的4个小时的输出，才能有足够的分量和密度。 那么，这11个月的时间，具体要怎么输入呢？ 我经常说，商业顾问，有两样极其重要的工作。一个是思考，另一个是寻找。而寻找，比 ...

Core Insights - Barry Diller emphasizes the importance of intuition over traditional foresight in predicting industry trends and making business decisions [3][4][5] - The limitations of data in predicting audience preferences are highlighted, suggesting that most predictive research is often futile [4][5] - Diller advocates for a non-goal-oriented approach to leadership, focusing instead on the process and the importance of passionate debate in decision-making [5][7][9] Group 1: Leadership Philosophy - Diller believes that maintaining a pure intuition is crucial for innovation, warning against cynicism that can stifle creativity [3][4] - He argues that setting specific business goals can be counterproductive, preferring a more organic approach to career development and business strategy [5][10] - The value of passionate debate in decision-making is emphasized, as it can lead to better outcomes and clearer insights [7][9] Group 2: Business Strategy - Diller recounts a critical moment during the acquisition of Expedia, where a decision was made amidst uncertainty, highlighting the importance of decisive action [6][10] - He stresses the need to evaluate risks before making investments, suggesting that limiting expectations on potential returns can be detrimental [9][10] - The focus on building strong, recognizable brands is presented as a key strategy for navigating the challenges posed by AI and changing market dynamics [14] Group 3: Hiring Practices - Diller critiques traditional hiring practices that rely heavily on resumes, advocating for a focus on dynamic and capable individuals [11][12] - He suggests that the best hiring strategy involves recruiting from the ground up, allowing for mutual learning and growth within the organization [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Diller expresses skepticism about the ability of AI to create genuine content, emphasizing the unpredictability of its impact on the industry [12][13] - He warns that the rise of AI could disrupt traditional content distribution methods, urging companies to focus on strengthening their brand identity as a defensive strategy [14]