Core PCE Overview - The Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is projected to have a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 3.0% in March 2025, rising to 3.8% by December 2025, and then decreasing to 2.7% by December 2026 [1] - The contribution to the change in Core PCE from December 2025 to December 2026 is expected to be -0.3% [1] Core Goods Analysis - Core Goods, which account for 24.3% of the Core PCE, is expected to see a significant YoY increase from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025, contributing 1.4% to the change [1] - New Vehicles and Used Vehicles show contrasting trends, with New Vehicles projected to increase from -0.4% to 3.7% and Used Vehicles from -0.1% to 8.3% [1] - Household Appliances are expected to rebound from -3.2% to 7.8% YoY, contributing positively to the Core Goods category [1] Core Services Insights - Core Services, which make up 75.7% of the Core PCE, are projected to decrease from a YoY increase of 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.0% in December 2025, with a further decline to 2.9% by December 2026 [1] - Housing, a significant component of Core Services, is expected to see a decrease in its contribution from 4.3% YoY in March 2025 to 3.5% in December 2025 [1] - Financial Services & Insurance are projected to decline from a YoY increase of 7.3% to 3.3% by December 2025, indicating a potential slowdown in this sector [1]