▲ATFX图 近期，特朗普密集抨击美联储维持利率不变的政策，对美联储主席也表现出不满情绪。但是，美联储在美国是独立机构，并不受到白宫决策的影响。特朗 普想要美联储将基准利率大幅调降至1%左右的企图很难达成。现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期到明年5月份，在无法合理辞退鲍威尔的前提下，特朗普只能 在下一任美联储主席人选方面做文章。 美联储每一次利率决议，都是那些想要成为下任美联储主席的委员的考验。显而易见，只有那些坚定支持降息的委员，才有可能被特朗普选中。那些支持 按兵不动的委员，非但不会有机会成为下任美联储主席，还有可能被迫离开美联储，比如因个人原因缺席7月份利率决议的库格勒。最新消息显示，特朗 普开始对美联储理事库克发难，指责其存在的两处房产在按揭方面存在问题。特朗普表示，库克必须立即辞职。 在7月份的利率决议上，美联储理事库克支持按兵不动，这显然违背了特朗普的意愿。特朗普指控丽莎·库克，表面看是因为按揭流程违规，但更有可能 是"杀鸡儆猴"，通过逼退库克来震慑美联储其他票委，以期在不更换美联储主席的前提下，实现降息的目的。 ATFX汇评：今日2:00，美联储发布会议纪要，对应7月31日利率决议，当时决议结果维持4. ...

Core PCE Overview - The Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is projected to have a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 3.0% in March 2025, rising to 3.8% by December 2025, and then decreasing to 2.7% by December 2026 [1] - The contribution to the change in Core PCE from December 2025 to December 2026 is expected to be -0.3% [1] Core Goods Analysis - Core Goods, which account for 24.3% of the Core PCE, is expected to see a significant YoY increase from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025, contributing 1.4% to the change [1] - New Vehicles and Used Vehicles show contrasting trends, with New Vehicles projected to increase from -0.4% to 3.7% and Used Vehicles from -0.1% to 8.3% [1] - Household Appliances are expected to rebound from -3.2% to 7.8% YoY, contributing positively to the Core Goods category [1] Core Services Insights - Core Services, which make up 75.7% of the Core PCE, are projected to decrease from a YoY increase of 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.0% in December 2025, with a further decline to 2.9% by December 2026 [1] - Housing, a significant component of Core Services, is expected to see a decrease in its contribution from 4.3% YoY in March 2025 to 3.5% in December 2025 [1] - Financial Services & Insurance are projected to decline from a YoY increase of 7.3% to 3.3% by December 2025, indicating a potential slowdown in this sector [1]

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. fell to 0.06% in March, down 0.17 percentage points from February, significantly below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth turned negative at -0.05% in March, down from 0.22% in February, also below the market expectation of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI and core CPI decreased by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding market expectations of 140,000 and significantly up from 117,000 in February[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.15% in March, compared to 4.14% in February[2] Tariff Impact - The weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. increased from 20.5% to 25.9% since Trump's administration, potentially raising inflation by 1.1 to 2.3 percentage points[3] - If the "reciprocal tariff" policy is fully implemented, the inflation impact could rise to 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points[3] Interest Rate Outlook - The forecast remains for 2-3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year, although uncertainty due to tariff policies has increased[4] - The Federal Reserve may need to observe the situation before making decisions, as tariffs could push inflation higher[5] Economic Risks - Risks include slow rate cuts leading to recession and the potential for stagflation due to aggressive tariff policies[6]