数据来源: Wind,北京大学国民经济研究中心 美联储降息预期下降,人民币震荡前行 预计 2026年 1 月在 6.90~7.05 区间波动 (北大国民经济研究中心) 2025 年 12 月，人民币汇率总体 6.9755 至 7.0794 区间内震荡升值。12 月公布数据显示 美国失业率上涨、通胀率下降, 12月主要发达国家货币政策分化,叠加年底集中结汇是影 响 12月美元兑人民币汇率走势的主要因素。展望未来,中国经济社会相对稳定,国际政治 大环境相对平稳,1 月美联储继续降息预期下降,国内"反内卷"经济增速或阶段性下调, 外部环境在大国博弈下愈发复杂,投机机会增加,资本市场宽幅波动。综合考虑,预计 2026年 1 月人民币汇率在 6.90～7.05 区间双向波动震荡前行。 一、市场回顾 2025 年 12 月，人民币汇率震荡前行,总体 6.9755 至 7.0794 区间内震荡升值。其中, 人民币在岸汇率在 6.9890 至 7.0725 间波动；人民币中间价在 7.0288 至 7.0794 间波动; 人民 币离岸汇率则是在 6.9755至 7.0720 间波动。第一,最新数据显示,美国失业率上涨、通胀 ...

这次讲话与以往截然不同，特朗普全程严格照稿宣读，表情严肃，没有一丝玩笑。语速也相当快，有时 让人难以跟上话题的转变。本以为这场讲话会传达出清晰的执政信号，结果内容一出来，立刻让事实核 查员忙得不可开交。 大家好，今天小墨将分析特朗普的全国讲话风格突变，探讨其内容引发的争议以及背后的现实原因。 特朗普以往的演讲风格大家都知道，通常随性而不拘小节，尤其在竞选集会上，经常脱稿发挥，嬉笑怒 骂，甚至会说出一些让人意想不到的话。但12月17日的全国电视讲话却让人大吃一惊，这位政坛网红竟 然在讲话中完全变脸。当晚7点，美国各大电视台暂停正常节目，全程转播了特朗普的18分钟全国讲 话。 特朗普的讲话风格变化并非没有原因。全国电视讲话是美国最高规格的官方发言，通常用于宣布重大政 策或应对全国性危机等重要场合。在这次讲话之前，特朗普政府正面临巨大的执政压力。根据人民网的 报道，路透社和益普索集团的最新民调显示，仅有33%的美国成年人支持特朗普的经济政策，这是他第 二任期以来的最低支持率。 即使是特朗普的核心支持者——让美国再次伟大阵营的选民，他的支持率也比今年4月下降了8个百分 点。更令人担忧的是，美国的民生困境。美国劳工部1 ...

【12月20日晚间加密货币集体拉升，近24小时6.6万人爆仓】12月20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体 拉升，纷纷飘红。CoinGlass数据显示，近24小时内，一度近8万人爆仓，截至发稿，共有6.6万人爆仓。 事实上，美股已连涨2天。随着节日临近，多位市场人士对行情抱有期待。有分析师称，数据巩固了人 们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。11月美国通胀率远低于预测，失业率意外上升。有机构认为，当前 通胀数据大幅超预期上行空间有限。若劳动力市场保持现状，失业率每月升0.1个百分点，明年进一步 降息空间可能被低估。 扫码查看原文 【12月20日晚间加密货币集体拉升,近24小时6.6 万人爆仓】 12月20日晚间,仍在交易的加密货币集 体拉升,纷纷飘红。CoinGlass数据显示,近24小时 内,一度近8万人爆仓,截至发稿,共有6.6万人爆 仓。事实上,美股已连涨2天。随着节日临近,多位 市场人士对行情抱有期待。有分析师称,数据巩固 了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。11月美国 通胀率远低于预测,失业率意外上升。有机构认 为,当前通胀数据大幅超预期上行空间有限。若劳 动力市场保持现状,失业率每月升0.1个百分点,明 ...

北京时间20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红。CoinGlass数据显示，近24小时内，加密货币一度共有近8万人爆仓。截至发稿，近24小时 内，加密货币共有6.6万人爆仓。 | | 加密货币数据分析 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行生品 | | 现货 分类 | 代币解锁总览 | Memes | ETH | SOL | BSC | Layer-1 | AI | | | 排名 | 币种 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | | 资金费率 | | 24小时成交额 | 成交额(2 | | 4 | 1 | B BTC | $88262.7 | +0.32% | | 0.0063% | | $271.36亿 | -69.11 | | 27 | 2 | + ETH | $2974.56 | +0.12% | | 0.0033% | | $351.28亿 | -54.63 | | 4 | 3 | S SOL | $125.69 | -0.14% | | 0.0076% | | $59 ...

格隆汇12月20日｜11月美国通胀率远低于经济学家的预测，当月失业率意外上升。由于联邦政府停摆43 天造成的信息失真和不完整，投资者一直不愿过多解读这些数据。Manulife Investment Management美国 利率和抵押贷款交易主管Michael Lorizio称："即使考虑到这一点，这也凸显出当前通胀数据大幅超预期 上行的空间非常有限。如果劳动力市场继续保持目前的轨迹，即失业率每月上升0.1个百分点，我认为 明年进一步降息的空间可能有点被低估了。" ...

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 美国非营利无党派机构FactCheck的独立分析人士指出，通胀率仍维持在同比约3%的水平，并质疑有关 数万亿美元新增投资和就业增长的说法，指出自1月以来美国制造业就业人数已出现下降。 美国非营利无党派机构FactCheck的独立分析人士指出，通胀率仍维持在同比约3%的水平，并质疑有关 数万亿美元新增投资和就业增长的说法，指出自1月以来美国制造业就业人数已出现下降。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations in early trading on December 5, rebounding in the afternoon to surpass the $4,250 mark, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4,257 per ounce at the close of A-shares [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.81%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 2.25%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) gained 2.21% [1] - Recent labor market data has shown mixed signals, with initial jobless claims dropping to a three-year low, but the ADP report indicated a decrease in private sector employment [1] Group 2 - Market focus has shifted to the upcoming release of the U.S. September PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, noted signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is likely [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that rising inflation rates in the U.S. are unlikely to disrupt their forecast for the federal funds rate, with potential inflation rates having dropped to around 2% [1]

新华财经北京11月20日电美国联邦储备委员会周三（11月19日）公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，美 联储官员就12月份是否进一步降息出现显著分歧。市场对降息的押注缩减，美国国债收益率普遍上涨1- 2个基点。 在10月货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以10票赞成、2票反对的结果通过降息25个基点的决 议。反对者中一名成员投票支持降息50个基点，一名成员投票支持维持利率不变。 据"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos，美联储官员10月会议上对下次会议是否应该降息的分歧加深，持"在 本年度剩余时间里保持目标区间不变可能是适当的"观点的与会者人数多于支持在12月进一步降息的人 数。"越来越多的政策制定者（可能形成微弱多数）对12月降息感到不安。"Nick Timiraos表示，"12月 份的投票结果看来会非常胶着。" 截至19日尾盘，10年期美债收益率涨1.55个基点，报4.13%。2年期美债收益率涨1.48个基点，报 3.59%。CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率由前一日的接近五成，下降至略超三 成。 美联储在10月货币政策会议结束后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3. ...

Economic Growth Forecast - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% after inflation adjustment, up from the previous prediction of 1.3% in June [1][1][1] - The upward revision is primarily due to a significant increase in expectations for business investment [1] Employment Growth Outlook - The NABE group anticipates an average monthly job growth of 60,000 for this year, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 87,000 [1][1] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in U.S. job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again by 25 basis points this year, followed by an additional 75 basis points reduction in 2026 [1][1] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group predicts that U.S. inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year, with the PCE price index expected to decrease from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [1][1][1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][3] - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11-1 vote, with the only dissenting vote coming from Stephen Moore, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's decision has raised questions about its independence, particularly in light of President Trump's previous pressures for rate cuts [2][8] Economic Data - The Fed's economic projections indicate that the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate is expected to reach 2.6% next year, up from a previous forecast of 2.4%, with the 2% target not expected to be met until 2028 [3] - Employment data shows a downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating a weaker job market than previously anticipated [3][4] - The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, with a notably high unemployment rate among recent graduates [4] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose [6] - Analysts suggest that the rate cut may lead to a gradual decrease in housing, auto, and credit card loan rates, but the overall impact on stocks remains uncertain [6][7] - Historical context indicates that previous Fed rate cut cycles have typically involved larger cuts, suggesting that the current cycle may not be as aggressive [7] Political Implications - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a response to Trump's economic policies, particularly in light of the tariffs that have increased household expenses [8] - There is a perception that the Fed's independence is compromised, with some media outlets suggesting that the current Fed is effectively operating under Trump's influence [8] - The internal contradictions between Trump's policies and the Fed's actions may lead to political repercussions for Trump in the future [8]