Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][3] - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11-1 vote, with the only dissenting vote coming from Stephen Moore, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's decision has raised questions about its independence, particularly in light of President Trump's previous pressures for rate cuts [2][8] Economic Data - The Fed's economic projections indicate that the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate is expected to reach 2.6% next year, up from a previous forecast of 2.4%, with the 2% target not expected to be met until 2028 [3] - Employment data shows a downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating a weaker job market than previously anticipated [3][4] - The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, with a notably high unemployment rate among recent graduates [4] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose [6] - Analysts suggest that the rate cut may lead to a gradual decrease in housing, auto, and credit card loan rates, but the overall impact on stocks remains uncertain [6][7] - Historical context indicates that previous Fed rate cut cycles have typically involved larger cuts, suggesting that the current cycle may not be as aggressive [7] Political Implications - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a response to Trump's economic policies, particularly in light of the tariffs that have increased household expenses [8] - There is a perception that the Fed's independence is compromised, with some media outlets suggesting that the current Fed is effectively operating under Trump's influence [8] - The internal contradictions between Trump's policies and the Fed's actions may lead to political repercussions for Trump in the future [8]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Despite rising inflation rates, the Fed's decision was influenced by lower-than-expected job growth in recent months and a slowdown in economic activity [1] - The Fed predicts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year and 25 basis points cuts annually for the next two years [1] - The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities while maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The Fed's decision led to a 0.13% decline in the U.S. dollar index, bringing it to 96.48 [1] Economic Outlook - The Fed forecasts a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.4% in June, with a long-term growth rate projected at 1.8% [1] Diverging Opinions - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Milan was the only dissenting voice, advocating for a 50 basis points cut instead of 25 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, in response to lower-than-expected job growth and economic uncertainty [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is influenced by rising inflation and a slowdown in job growth, with recent indicators showing a deceleration in economic activity [3]. - The Fed's forecast indicates an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with further cuts of 25 basis points each year for the next two years [5]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities while maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [5]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve projects a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.4%, with a long-term growth rate expectation of 1.8% [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.13% to 96.48 [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that two members opposed the decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 31 meeting [1] - Former President Trump has been vocal against the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, expressing dissatisfaction with the current chair, Jerome Powell [2] - The meeting minutes reflect a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. macroeconomic situation, with high inflation preventing the Fed from hastily resuming rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The committee noted a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remained low and the labor market was considered robust [3] - However, the August non-farm payroll report showed a surprising increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with only 73,000 jobs added, contradicting the earlier assessment of a stable labor market [3] - Trump's strategy appears to target Fed officials who support maintaining rates, potentially to intimidate others into favoring rate cuts without changing the Fed chair [2]

特朗普宣布关税的4月美国通胀降低至2.3% 金十数据5月13日讯，今年4月，也就是特朗普对全球征收关税的当月，美国通胀率降至2.3%，分析师 预期维持在3月份2.4%的水平。尽管特朗普已经削减了他在4月2日宣布的许多关税，但经济学家警告 称，进口关税的大部分影响尚未显现，美联储官员预计价格压力将进一步上升。特朗普向鲍威尔施压， 要求其降息并在上周补充说，与美联储主席打交道就像"对牛弹琴"。美联储青睐的通胀目标不是CPI， 而是PCE。3月份，PCE降至2.3%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 ...

Core PCE Overview - The Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is projected to have a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 3.0% in March 2025, rising to 3.8% by December 2025, and then decreasing to 2.7% by December 2026 [1] - The contribution to the change in Core PCE from December 2025 to December 2026 is expected to be -0.3% [1] Core Goods Analysis - Core Goods, which account for 24.3% of the Core PCE, is expected to see a significant YoY increase from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025, contributing 1.4% to the change [1] - New Vehicles and Used Vehicles show contrasting trends, with New Vehicles projected to increase from -0.4% to 3.7% and Used Vehicles from -0.1% to 8.3% [1] - Household Appliances are expected to rebound from -3.2% to 7.8% YoY, contributing positively to the Core Goods category [1] Core Services Insights - Core Services, which make up 75.7% of the Core PCE, are projected to decrease from a YoY increase of 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.0% in December 2025, with a further decline to 2.9% by December 2026 [1] - Housing, a significant component of Core Services, is expected to see a decrease in its contribution from 4.3% YoY in March 2025 to 3.5% in December 2025 [1] - Financial Services & Insurance are projected to decline from a YoY increase of 7.3% to 3.3% by December 2025, indicating a potential slowdown in this sector [1]

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. fell to 0.06% in March, down 0.17 percentage points from February, significantly below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth turned negative at -0.05% in March, down from 0.22% in February, also below the market expectation of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI and core CPI decreased by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding market expectations of 140,000 and significantly up from 117,000 in February[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.15% in March, compared to 4.14% in February[2] Tariff Impact - The weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. increased from 20.5% to 25.9% since Trump's administration, potentially raising inflation by 1.1 to 2.3 percentage points[3] - If the "reciprocal tariff" policy is fully implemented, the inflation impact could rise to 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points[3] Interest Rate Outlook - The forecast remains for 2-3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year, although uncertainty due to tariff policies has increased[4] - The Federal Reserve may need to observe the situation before making decisions, as tariffs could push inflation higher[5] Economic Risks - Risks include slow rate cuts leading to recession and the potential for stagflation due to aggressive tariff policies[6]