Core Viewpoint - The trade deficit of the United States expanded to $78.3 billion in July, contrary to the expectations set by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which aimed to reduce this deficit [1][3]. Trade Deficit Analysis - The trade deficit increased by 32.5% compared to the previous year, significantly surpassing market predictions of $75.7 billion [1]. - The goods deficit reached $103.9 billion, a surge of 21.2%, while the deficit with China expanded to $14.7 billion despite a reduction in trade volume [4]. - The trade deficits with Vietnam and Mexico have now exceeded that with China, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4]. Economic Factors - The persistent trade deficit is attributed to the U.S. economy's "low savings - high consumption" model, which leads to a demand-supply gap that necessitates imports [4][6]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has declined from 25% in 1960 to an estimated 10% in 2024, highlighting the severity of industrial hollowing [6]. Service and Financial Surplus - Despite the large goods trade deficit, the U.S. enjoys a significant service trade surplus, projected to reach $295 billion in 2024, driven by its advanced technology and financial sectors [10]. - The cycle of goods deficit leading to dollar accumulation allows foreign nations to invest back into U.S. assets, including Treasury bonds and equities [10]. Tariff Strategy - The imposition of tariffs appears to be a strategy to generate revenue for the U.S. government, which is facing a debt exceeding $37 trillion [12]. - The burden of tariffs is shared among production countries, U.S. companies, and consumers, leading to increased costs for American buyers [12]. Global Economic Sentiment - The increase in gold reserves by central banks, including China's, reflects a growing distrust in the established financial system, indicating a potential shift in global economic confidence [13].