Core Viewpoint - The trade deficit of the United States expanded to $78.3 billion in July, contrary to the expectations set by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which aimed to reduce this deficit [1][3]. Trade Deficit Analysis - The trade deficit increased by 32.5% compared to the previous year, significantly surpassing market predictions of $75.7 billion [1]. - The goods deficit reached $103.9 billion, a surge of 21.2%, while the deficit with China expanded to $14.7 billion despite a reduction in trade volume [4]. - The trade deficits with Vietnam and Mexico have now exceeded that with China, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4]. Economic Factors - The persistent trade deficit is attributed to the U.S. economy's "low savings - high consumption" model, which leads to a demand-supply gap that necessitates imports [4][6]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has declined from 25% in 1960 to an estimated 10% in 2024, highlighting the severity of industrial hollowing [6]. Service and Financial Surplus - Despite the large goods trade deficit, the U.S. enjoys a significant service trade surplus, projected to reach $295 billion in 2024, driven by its advanced technology and financial sectors [10]. - The cycle of goods deficit leading to dollar accumulation allows foreign nations to invest back into U.S. assets, including Treasury bonds and equities [10]. Tariff Strategy - The imposition of tariffs appears to be a strategy to generate revenue for the U.S. government, which is facing a debt exceeding $37 trillion [12]. - The burden of tariffs is shared among production countries, U.S. companies, and consumers, leading to increased costs for American buyers [12]. Global Economic Sentiment - The increase in gold reserves by central banks, including China's, reflects a growing distrust in the established financial system, indicating a potential shift in global economic confidence [13].

Group 1 - India's merchandise trade deficit in June was $18.78 billion [1] - The services trade surplus for India in June was $15.26 billion [1]

据新华社报道，世界贸易组织13日在瑞士日内瓦召开服务贸易理事会年度第二次会议。中方指出美 国"对等关税"误导性叙事和错误逻辑，要求美方切实遵守世贸组织规则，通过多边合作而非单边措施解 决分歧，与各方共同维护全球贸易体系的稳定。中方代表指出，美国是全球最大的服务贸易顺差国，对 主要贸易伙伴长期保持服务 贸易顺差，2024年顺差接近3000亿美元。不仅如此，美国通过深度参与全 球价值链中附加值最高的研发、设计、销售等环节，在国际贸易和经济全球化中获取远高于贸易数据所 显示的收益。此外，美方只谈货物贸易"吃亏"，避谈服务贸易"获利"，这显然是片面和具有误导性的。 美方不能采取双重标准，对于不同领域规则"合则用，不合则弃"，更不能只允许自己获利，不允许其他 成员，特别是发展中成员获利。 ...

美国3月份贸易逆差扩大至1405亿美元，创纪录新高。 美国3月服务贸易顺差降至2023年4月以来最低水平。 ...

美国服务贸易顺差降至2023年4月以来最低水平。 ...