Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Resources Beer (00291) is expected to outperform its peers, with projected sales and adjusted EBITDA growth in Q3 2025 showing low single-digit and double-digit increases, respectively [1] - The beer industry is currently experiencing a polarization trend, characterized by both premiumization and downgrading [1] - Despite ongoing pressures in the liquor business, there has been improvement compared to the summer, which may lead to goodwill impairment, but this will not affect dividends [1] Group 2 - The dividend payout ratio for China Resources Beer is expected to increase from 52% in 2024 to 60% in 2025, and further rise to 70-80% by 2027-2028 [1] - Following changes in the management team, the business has maintained resilience and steady development [1] - The management has reiterated its full-year targets for 2025, expecting adjusted profit growth (excluding special income related to the relocation agreement with joint ventures in the first half of 2025) to be in the range of low single-digit to double-digit year-on-year growth, with sales growth projected at low single-digit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that China Resources Beer (00291) will achieve low single-digit sales growth and double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth by Q3 2025, outperforming Qingdao Beer (00168) and Budweiser APAC (01876) [1] Industry Summary - The beer industry is currently experiencing a polarization trend, characterized by both premiumization and downgrading [1] - The white liquor business continues to face pressure, although there has been some improvement compared to the summer [1] Company Summary - China Resources Beer plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 52% in 2024 to 60% in 2025, with further increases to 70-80% expected in 2027-2028 [1] - Following changes in management, the company's business remains resilient and its development pace is steady [1] - The management has reiterated the full-year targets for 2025, expecting adjusted profit (excluding special income related to the relocation agreement with joint ventures in the first half of 2025) to grow by high single digits to double digits, with sales growth projected at low single digits [1]