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国际干散货运价:4 月先抑后扬 5 月回暖
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 06:30
Core Viewpoint - The international dry bulk freight market experienced a decline followed by a recovery in April, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reporting a decrease of 13.48% compared to the beginning of the month, but showing signs of recovery towards the end of the month [1] Market Performance - As of April 25, the BDI stood at 1373 points, with a monthly average of 1357.53 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 11.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.59% [1] - The BCI dropped from 2465 points at the beginning of the month to 1889 points by the end, a decline of 22.58%, with a monthly average of 1924.76 points, down 23.26% month-on-month and 20.32% year-on-year [1] - The BPI decreased from 1501 points to 1392 points, a drop of 7.14%, with a monthly average of 1317.29 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 26.53% [1] - The BSI fell slightly from 988 points to 977 points, a decrease of 0.61%, with a monthly average of 958.18 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.08% [1] Supply Side Analysis - As of April 2025, the global dry bulk fleet consists of 14,273 vessels with a total capacity of approximately 104.4 million DWT, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.27% and a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [1] - In March 2025, 41 new dry bulk vessels were delivered, adding approximately 2.97 million DWT, which accounts for 0.28% of the existing fleet capacity [1] - There were 4 new orders for dry bulk vessels in March, adding approximately 500,000 DWT, while 4 vessels were scrapped, totaling about 150,000 DWT [1] - As of April 2025, there are 1,324 vessels on order, representing a total capacity of approximately 10.7 million DWT, which is 10.27% of the existing fleet capacity [1] Demand and Future Outlook - The demand for transportation was insufficient in early April, leading to a decline in freight rates, but a brief rebound occurred mid-month due to easing policies [1] - The overall freight rates remained weak due to excess capacity and lack of demand growth, although there was an increase in transportation demand towards the end of the month [1] - Expectations for May indicate a continued improvement in transportation demand, particularly with rising iron ore production and decreasing domestic port inventories [1] - Coal demand is in the off-season with high terminal inventories, while Brazilian soybean shipments are expected to perform well [1] - The international dry bulk freight market is anticipated to continue its recovery and warming trend in May, with short-term freight rates expected to fluctuate positively [1]