地空天一体化综合监测网络
Search documents
晴雨预报准九成,暴雨预报仍是挑战 解码天气预报的准与难
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-08-16 09:16
Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Meteorological Station has issued a total of 2,776 weather warnings since the onset of the flood season, highlighting the critical role of meteorologists in providing timely weather forecasts and warnings to ensure public safety and effective disaster response [1][6][12]. Group 1: Weather Monitoring and Forecasting - The meteorological team utilizes various data sources, including radar, cloud images, and numerical weather prediction models, to analyze and forecast weather conditions [5][11]. - The operational routine includes multiple daily forecasts and meetings to assess weather conditions, especially during significant weather events like typhoons and heavy rainfall [5][6]. - The accuracy of weather forecasts has improved significantly, with a projected 90% accuracy rate for general weather predictions by 2024, while the accuracy for heavy rain forecasts remains at 20% [12][13]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The Shandong meteorological network has evolved from manual analysis to a sophisticated digital forecasting system, incorporating advanced observational technologies [12]. - The province has established a comprehensive monitoring network, including ground and satellite stations, to enhance real-time weather data collection [12]. - Continuous improvements in forecasting technology and methodologies are being pursued, including the integration of artificial intelligence to enhance prediction accuracy [18]. Group 3: Challenges in Weather Forecasting - Forecasting localized severe weather events, such as short-term heavy rain and strong convective systems, remains a significant challenge due to their unpredictable nature [13][17]. - The limitations in current observational data and the complexity of atmospheric dynamics contribute to the difficulties in achieving high accuracy for localized weather events [17][18]. - Meteorologists emphasize the probabilistic nature of weather forecasting, acknowledging that complete accuracy is unattainable due to the inherent variability of weather systems [17].