Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to curb the "spreading pancake" style of urban expansion in China, indicating a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development and from incremental expansion to qualitative improvement in urban growth [4][8][13]. Group 1: Reasons for Curbing "Spreading Pancake" Expansion - The phrase "firmly curb" indicates a stronger stance on limiting urban expansion compared to previous mentions [7]. - The recent Central Urban Work Conference introduced the concept of transitioning urbanization from "rapid growth" to "stable development" [8]. - The shift from an "incremental era" to a "stock era" marks a significant change since the 1980s, moving away from land-driven development models [9][10]. - Over the past two decades, the rapid proliferation of new cities and districts has led to an oversupply, with over 3,000 new cities planned at one point, capable of housing 3.4 billion people [11]. Group 2: Three Red Lines and Urban Development Boundaries - The recently approved 2035 overall plan outlines three red lines: arable land and permanent basic farmland, ecological protection red lines, and urban development boundaries [16][17]. - Urban development boundaries directly influence the scope of urban expansion, determining the scale of industrial, commercial, and residential land [17]. - Major cities like Beijing, Chongqing, and Shanghai have extensive development boundaries, with over 20 cities exceeding 1,000 square kilometers [18][23]. Group 3: Urban Development Intensity - Urban development intensity is crucial, with only six major cities having a development intensity exceeding 30% [30]. - Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Shanghai have development intensities over 50%, indicating a strong focus on industrial development [32]. - Shenzhen's unique situation is highlighted, as it has a high development intensity despite a mid-range development boundary area [34]. Group 4: Population Caps in Major Cities - The 2035 plan sets population caps based on resource capacity, with Chongqing having the highest cap at 36 million [45]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have caps exceeding 20 million, while Shenzhen's cap is set at 19 million [42][45]. - The actual service population, which includes temporary residents, is projected to push several cities into the 20 million club [47]. Group 5: Remaining Population Growth Potential - Cities like Shanghai and Beijing have limited remaining population growth potential, while Guangzhou has over 3 million [50][52]. - Many second-tier cities have substantial growth potential, with Chongqing, Tianjin, and others exceeding 4 million [53]. - The article suggests that achieving significant population growth in the coming years may be challenging due to declining birth rates and slowing urbanization [54].