大盘风格资金流向

Search documents
基差方向周度预测-20250509
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 12:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the overseas environment was stable with no unexpected risk events, while domestic consumption data was good, with the sales of key national retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year, and service consumption continuing to heat up [3] - The policy content at the State Council Information Office press conference during the week was not unexpected, but the implementation time was, and the policy coordination improved, which was an important support for market sentiment [3] - The reform plan for public funds may lead to a shift of funds to benchmark broad - based indexes and large - cap styles, and the incremental funds for large - cap varieties may further increase [3] - The Fed maintained the interest rate target unchanged, which was in line with market expectations [3] - After the holiday, the trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded, and the index continued to fill the gap in April. The weekly gains of each broad - based index were around 2%. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index has filled the gap since April 3rd, while the other three indexes still have some distance to go [3] - It is expected that the probability of the basis spread narrowing in the future is relatively high, and it is advisable to temporarily shift positions to near - month contracts in May to wait for the low - cost window after the narrowing of the basis spread [3] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs This Week's Review - The overseas environment during the May Day holiday was stable, and domestic consumption data was good. The policy coordination improved, and the public fund reform plan was implemented. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. The trading volume of the A - share market rebounded, and the index continued to fill the gap. The basis spread was relatively stable, and it is expected to narrow in the future [3] Recent Forecast Conclusions - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4]