Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Rubber is "Outperform the Market" [5][21][29] Core Views - The company benefited from the recovery of rubber prices, maintaining a year-on-year recovery trend in performance. In 2024, it achieved an operating revenue of 49.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.80%, primarily due to the rebound in rubber sales prices and increased trading volume [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 103 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.20%, mainly due to reduced asset disposal compensation income and increased expenses from the "Mojia" typhoon disaster [1][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term upward cycle of natural rubber prices, with a forecasted net profit of 1.0 billion yuan for 2025 and 2.4 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting the company's position as one of the largest natural rubber planting and processing trade enterprises globally [3][21] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's overall revenue from the rubber segment was 48.335 billion yuan, up 29.93% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 2.91%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2] - The company's own rubber plantation production in 2024 was 121,500 tons, down 13.05% year-on-year, while sales volume was 116,700 tons, down 15.92% year-on-year, primarily affected by the "Mojia" typhoon [2] - The non-rubber business revenue significantly increased by 164.97% year-on-year, contributing to the overall profit performance [2] Market Outlook - Short-term rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to trade conflicts impacting demand, but medium to long-term supply constraints from reduced planting and aging trees are anticipated to support price increases [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's upward trend, maintaining an "Outperform the Market" rating [3][21] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for operating revenue is 62.114 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 104 million yuan, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4][25] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.02 yuan for 2025, increasing to 0.11 yuan by 2027 [4][25]