Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillation" [3][4]. Core View of the Report - Due to the combination of state reserve sales and weakening market sentiment, natural rubber has returned to a downward trend. Although there are factors such as reduced rainfall in production areas, strong cost support, a significant decline in mid - stream inventory, and an increase in downstream operating rates, the weakening sentiment in the commodity market may lead to short - term oscillatory performance [3][4][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan's glue output was stable with slightly lower raw material prices, and Hainan's irregular rainfall affected rubber tapping. In Thailand, the northeast had less rain and better new rubber release, while the south had continuous rainfall. In Vietnam, the weather improved but production had not returned to normal [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. However, there may be a slight decline in the future due to inventory pressure [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased, but the warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both narrowed slightly [4]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex improved, while the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in the loss range [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the domestic commodity market lacks drivers with weak sentiment [4]. - **Investment View**: It is oscillatory. Considering various factors, the short - term performance may be oscillatory [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Due to weak raw materials and state reserve sales, rubber prices dropped significantly. As of September 19, the RU main contract closed at 15,535 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan/ton (-1.80%), and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [8]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices also dropped significantly [11]. - **Position on the Disk**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased, and the RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [17][24][32]. 3. Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [39]. - **Production and Export in Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC reached 5.443 million tons (+5.54%). From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%) [73][86]. - **China's Import and Export**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. In July, China's natural rubber export volume was 5,800 tons, a 36.24% decrease from the previous month and a 3.75% decrease from the same period last year [93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased significantly [101][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly, but there may be a slight decline in the future [117]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In August, automobile sales growth accelerated, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [123][133]. - **Tire Export**: From January to August, China's rubber tire cumulative export volume was 6.19 million tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year [134]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex declined [145].