01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 沪胶仓单大幅注销，橡胶整体偏强震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 天然橡胶:沪胶仓单大幅注销，橡胶整体偏强震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，本周多数时间处于降雨中，导致割胶处于停滞状态，市场出现"有价无市"局面。海南产区局部地区有 降水扰动，随着气温开始出现下降，胶水干含有所下滑，整体原料产出受到抑制，当地加工厂陆续进入冬储备货阶段，对原料延续加价采购，收购价格表 | | | | 现坚挺。（2）泰国产区：东北部地区维持旺产期产出，泰南雨量较大，影响割胶工作，胶水及杯胶价格呈现上涨趋势 。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气有 | | | | 所改善，主产区降雨减弱，割胶作业条件优化， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 原料价格表现坚挺，橡胶延续偏强震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:原料价格表现坚挺，橡胶延续偏强震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料上涨，本周天气逐渐改善，原料恢复正常上量，当地加工厂提价抢收情绪升温，带动原料收购价格上涨。海南产区天气 情况改善，原料正常生产释放，当地加工厂为保证自身生产及交单需求，对原料维持加价收购态势，支撑原料价格坚挺运行。（2）泰国产区：泰国南部降 | | 供给 | 中性 | 雨增多，影响旺产季供应，胶水价格高位运行；东北部天气好转 下供应释放速度加快，部分海外EUDR订单支撑，杯胶收购价格表现坚挺。（3）越南产区： | | | | 越南产区降雨扰动持续，制约旺产季原料 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillation" [3][4]. Core View of the Report - Due to the combination of state reserve sales and weakening market sentiment, natural rubber has returned to a downward trend. Although there are factors such as reduced rainfall in production areas, strong cost support, a significant decline in mid - stream inventory, and an increase in downstream operating rates, the weakening sentiment in the commodity market may lead to short - term oscillatory performance [3][4][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan's glue output was stable with slightly lower raw material prices, and Hainan's irregular rainfall affected rubber tapping. In Thailand, the northeast had less rain and better new rubber release, while the south had continuous rainfall. In Vietnam, the weather improved but production had not returned to normal [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. However, there may be a slight decline in the future due to inventory pressure [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased, but the warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both narrowed slightly [4]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex improved, while the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in the loss range [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the domestic commodity market lacks drivers with weak sentiment [4]. - **Investment View**: It is oscillatory. Considering various factors, the short - term performance may be oscillatory [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Due to weak raw materials and state reserve sales, rubber prices dropped significantly. As of September 19, the RU main contract closed at 15,535 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan/ton (-1.80%), and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [8]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices also dropped significantly [11]. - **Position on the Disk**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased, and the RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [17][24][32]. 3. Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [39]. - **Production and Export in Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC reached 5.443 million tons (+5.54%). From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%) [73][86]. - **China's Import and Export**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. In July, China's natural rubber export volume was 5,800 tons, a 36.24% decrease from the previous month and a 3.75% decrease from the same period last year [93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased significantly [101][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly, but there may be a slight decline in the future [117]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In August, automobile sales growth accelerated, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [123][133]. - **Tire Export**: From January to August, China's rubber tire cumulative export volume was 6.19 million tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year [134]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex declined [145].