国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【统计局：中国10月外胎产量同比下降2.5%】据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年10月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为9795.1万条，同比下降2.5%。1- 10月橡胶轮胎外胎产量较上年同期增1%至9.96421亿条。 2.【中国前10个月轮胎出口量同比增长3.8%】据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%； 出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 操作评级 | | | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | 女女女 | | | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | | | | ☆☆☆ | 白糖 | 黄维 高级分析师 | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | 木材 | なな女 | | | | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | 20号胶 | な女女 | | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货销售基差偏稳；2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950~1050，较多报价在1050~1100,疆内自提。新棉集中上市,叠加需求一般,给价格带来一定的压力, 但目前现货价格总体持稳,预计郑棉仍 ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 011. 2025年11月19日-11月25日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在 越南、泰国南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水量区域主要分布 在印尼西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周合成橡胶盘面维持震荡。周五市场受宏观影响较为明显，受非农数据影响，美联储降息预期减弱，全球金融资产承压， 商品情绪受影响。从基本面看，国内产区逐步进入减产停割期，海外主产区易受降雨天气影响，整体原料上量有限，价格 稳中偏强运行，橡胶成本端存支撑。天然橡胶整体小幅累库，青岛保税区库存小幅去化，整体库存压力不大。合成橡胶供 需矛盾相较天然橡胶突出，今年以来，丁二烯和合成橡胶的产能投放速度加快，供应处在偏高位。但近期全钢胎和半钢胎 企业产能利用率均有所走弱，其中半钢胎企业产能利用率回落较为明显，季节性淡季效应逐步显现，整体轮胎库存去 ...

11月21日盘中，合成橡胶期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至10325.0元。截止发稿，合成橡胶主力合 约报10425.0元，跌幅1.60%。 宁证期货 预计合成橡胶价格将继续呈现偏弱震荡走势 国泰君安期货：预计后续合成橡胶趋势整体仍承压 合成橡胶：短期来看，顺丁橡胶期货价格震荡有支撑。主要原因有两点，第一，伴随NR-BR价差走阔 至高位，整体合成橡胶产业链现货成交从上周开始有阶段性好转，丁二烯以及顺丁橡胶价格企稳小幅反 弹。此外，由于装置轮流检修，顺丁橡胶目前整体显性库存处于震荡格局，整体基本面短期偏中性。第 二，近期天然橡胶板块较为坚挺，天然橡胶整体产业链库存结构对价格下方有一定支撑。并且临近11月 下旬，橡胶板块存在天气影响的交易预期以及仓单数量偏低的问题，与2024年11月下旬交易逻辑有相似 之处。中期来看，丁二烯基本面压力仍偏大，带动顺丁橡胶动态下移。丁二烯方面，进入四季度下旬， 高供应压力是主要矛盾，供需双增格局下，供应增速大于需求增速，库存压力逐步增加。丁二烯基本面 驱动短期中性中期向下，在中性现实弱预期格局下现货价格中枢进入低位震荡格局。顺丁橡胶方面，近 两周生产企业库存小幅累库，高加工利润被逐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the cost - side support is strong due to high raw material prices. With increasing arrivals in China and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen. For BR, the upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market To - date News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,320 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [2] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,735 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information - Import: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3] - Export: In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire export volume reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [3] - Global Forecast: ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [3] - Thailand Export: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [4] - Automobile Sales: In October 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 700 yuan/ton (- 40), the NR basis was 727 yuan/ton (+25); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 100), the mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 150), the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,650 yuan/ton (- 150) [5][6] - Raw Materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.89 Thai baht/kg (+0.84), Thai glue was 57 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [7] -开工率: The full - steel tire operating rate was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (- 10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [8] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 120 yuan/ton (+185), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,080 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of high - cis butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,512 yuan/ton (- 2) [9] -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (- 90), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Given the high raw material prices, the cost - side support is strong. With increasing arrivals and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The unilateral trend is unclear. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen [12] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. Some plants have restarted or postponed maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance. The upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the price, basis, basis rate, historical quantile, and other data of various futures and spot commodities on November 21, 2025, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The conversion price of 72 - grade silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5446, with a change of 2.06% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The conversion price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 5614 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3050, and the futures price is 3210, with a basis rate of 5.25% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The futures price is 3270, with a change of 0.09% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 1634, with a change of 0.75% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The conversion price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1646, with a historical quantile of 70.18% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1114, with a change of 9.83% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2601)**: The SMM 1 copper average price is 86435, and the futures price is 86130, with a basis of 305 and a historical quantile of 79.79% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21570, and the futures price is 21530, with a basis rate of 0.19% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM alumina index average price is 2836 [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 22360, and the futures price is 22380, with a basis of - 20 [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 291500, and the futures price is 292030, with a change of - 0.18% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE01)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 116600, and the futures price is 115380, with a basis of 1220 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: The price of 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 12820, and the futures price is 12285, with a change of 4.35% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2980, and the futures price is 3017, with a basis rate of - 1.23% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8224, and the futures price is 8420, with a basis of 196 [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8630, and the futures price is 8646, with a basis of - 16 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The ex - factory price of common rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2412, and the futures price is 2500, with a basis rate of - 0.19% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9779, and the futures price is 10100, with a basis of 321 [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2220, and the futures price is 2168, with a basis rate of 3.28% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2550, and the futures price is 2473, with a basis of 77 [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2601)**: The ex - factory price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan is 11750, and the futures price is 11440, with a basis of 310 [1]. - **Eggs (JD2601)**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 3238, and the futures price is 2710, with a basis rate of - 16.31% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang is 14563, and the futures price is 13465, with a basis of 1098 [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5760, and the futures price is 5366, with a basis of 394 [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The delivery theoretical price of apples is 9496, and the futures price is 8840, with a basis of - 656 [1]. - **Red Dates (C1601)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 9300, and the futures price is 8800, with a basis of - 500 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: The spot price of para - xylene at the main Chinese port (CFR) converted into RMB is 6830, and the futures price is 6833, with a basis rate of 0.04% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The market price (intermediate price) of PTA in the East China region is 4630, and the futures price is 4696, with a basis of - 66 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 3935, and the futures price is 3822, with a basis of 113 [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market is 6220, and the futures price is 6305, with a basis of 85 [1]. - **Styrene (EB2601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 6625, and the futures price is 6595, with a basis of 30 [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2000, and the futures price is 2016, with a basis of - 16 [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of urea (small - particle) in Shandong region is 1640, and the futures price is 1665, with a basis of - 25 [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong is 6855, and the futures price is 6835, with a basis of 20 [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6400, and the futures price is 6500, with a basis of 100 [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of PVC (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4456, and the futures price is 4420, with a basis of - 36 [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong market converted to 100% is 2437.5, and the futures price is 2261, with a basis of 176.5 [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The market price of LPG in Guangzhou region is 4397, and the futures price is 4348, with a basis of - 49 [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong region is 3030, and the futures price is 3058, with a basis of 28 [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China is 10700, and the futures price is 10520, with a basis of 180 [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The market price of Fufa glass 5mm large board in Shahe, Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) is 988, and the futures price is 989, with a basis of - 1 [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The market price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe (daily) is 1158, and the futures price is 1128, with a basis of - 30 [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) in Shanghai is 15250, and the futures price is 14850, with a basis of 400 [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - IF2512.CFE: The futures price is 4564.9, and the basis is - 25.7, with a basis rate of - 0.57% [1]. - IH2512.CFE: The futures price is 3002.6, and the basis is - 5.7, with a basis rate of - 0.19% [1]. - IC2512.CFE: The futures price is 7061.9, and the basis is - 61.9, with a basis rate of - 0.88% [1]. - IM2512.CFE: The futures price is 7340.4, and the basis is - 76.8, with a basis rate of - 1.00% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - TS2512: The futures price is 100.04, and the basis is - 0.01, with a basis rate of - 0.01% [1]. - TF2512: The futures price is 105.92, and the basis is 0.00, with a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - T2512: The futures price is 108.48, and the basis is 0.08, with a basis rate of 0.08% [1]. - TL2512: The futures price is 115.93, and the basis is 0.16, with a basis rate of 0.14% [1].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月21日 张晓秘 Z0003135 | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | ୧୫32 | 6833 | 2.00 | 0.03% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6883 | 6883 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6400 | 6434 | -34.00 | -0.53% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6513 | 6532 | -19.00 | -0.29% | | | L15价差 | -48 | -50 | 2.00 | 4.00% | | | PP15价差 | -113 | -98 | -15.00 | -15.31% | 元/吨 | | LP01价差 | 435 | 399 | 36.00 | -9.02% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6380 | 6400 | -20.00 | -0.31% | | | 华北LLD ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-11-21 天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局 油脂：美生柴政策预期反复，昨日油脂情绪转弱 蛋白粕：南美天气市，美豆强于连粕 玉米/淀粉：震荡市延续，关注上冻后卖压冲击和建库的博弈 生猪：猪源充裕，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局 合成橡胶：市场氛围企稳，盘面延续震荡 棉花：棉价窄幅波动，空间受限 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价延续走弱 纸浆：盘面价格大跌，仍是资金进出带来影响 双胶纸：招标提振有限，双胶纸震荡运行 原木：估值不高，盘面低位波动 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：维持区间震荡格局 逻辑：天胶昨日在10月进口细分数据出炉后有所回落但幅度有限，暂时来 看下方仍有支撑。基本面具体来说，目前海外供应季节性上量相对顺利， 但原料价格坚挺一定程度上对盘面有所支撑。但这更多是来自于加工产能 扩张后的原料挤兑，后续仍面临一定回落压力。而需求端来看近两周并没 有发生明显的变化，价格下跌后下游采买情绪仍尚可。从品种间的角度来 看，RU仓单炒作似乎已经告一段落，后续来说上方的抛压相较于NR ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/11/ 14 64.4 577 832 4635 6570 105.02 255.0 142 124 77.5 75.7 114594 -77 0.70 2025/11/ 17 64.2 571 831 4615 6590 100.66 260.0 122 161 77.5 75.7 114594 -74 0.45 2025/11/ 18 64.9 569 827 4610 6585 92.86 258.0 137 170 77.5 75.7 114594 -71 0.35 2025/11/ 19 63.5 573 832 4640 6585 107.47 259.0 137 155 77.5 75.7 117198 -70 0.55 2025/11/ 20 63.4 573 833 4630 6585 107.47 26 ...