1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,300 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,665 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,869; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 32,309 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,180 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,015, with a week - on - week increase of 288; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,586, with a week - on - week increase of 2,184 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with no change; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 280; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 95 [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,943 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 144; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 278 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 [2] - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 79.55 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 80 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 103,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.12; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.93%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.48%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.42 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and about an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased. The bonded warehouse has shown de - stocking, and the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate inventory. The total port inbound volume has slightly increased. The de - stocked rubber types in the bonded warehouse are mainly old Indonesian standard rubber and African rubber. Recently, rubber prices have fluctuated unstably, and downstream tire factories have made cautious replenishments for the rigid demand of mixed rubber, resulting in a slight increase in the total inventory [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises mainly fluctuated within a narrow range. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly tasks, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but some enterprises had short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which slightly dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU, NR, and BR are all cautiously bullish [11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of natural rubber is not significant in the short - term, with cost - side support and downstream tire demand showing certain resilience. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to continue to narrow [11] - The cost of butadiene for BR has weakened, and the supply is expected to decline. With downstream tire demand having some support, the price of BR is expected to remain relatively strong [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 16,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,015 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 19,000 yuan/ton, a change of + 500 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 17,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Tire Exports**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with the export increment to Africa being the most prominent, and the export center continued to shift to emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia [2] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively [2] - **Rubber Imports and Exports**: From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Production in 2025**: Thailand's natural rubber production was estimated to increase by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The harvesting area decreased slightly, but the yield per mu increased by 0.5% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On March 31, 2026, the RU basis was - 95 yuan/ton (+ 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (- 95), and the NR basis was 338.00 yuan/ton (+ 96.00) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 79.55 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.60), the price of Thai glue was 80.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), and the price of Thai cup lump was 59.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [6] - **开工率和库存**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+ 0.05%). The social inventory of natural rubber was 691,383 tons (+ 5,814), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (- 4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,410 tons (- 30), and the NR futures inventory was 43,646 tons (- 4,436) [7] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On March 31, 2026, the BR basis was 250 yuan/ton (+ 175). The ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,200 yuan/ton (+ 0) [8] - **开工率和库存**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (- 12.39%). The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+ 650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (- 1,750) [9][10] Strategy - **RU and NR**: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, the cost - side support is strong, and the downstream tire operating rate is rising slightly. NR is expected to perform better, and the spread between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - **BR**: Cautiously bullish. The cost has weakened, the supply is expected to decline, and the price is expected to remain relatively strong [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the sugar market, the overseas market focuses on the final sugar production in India and Thailand and the new - season sugar - making process in Brazil. Due to geopolitical factors, the market bets that Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio will favor ethanol, tightening the final sugar supply. The domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season is nearing completion with an expected increase. The domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose, but the high price of raw sugar and the potential policy bottom provide support. Zheng sugar may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation. The seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, while the new - season tapping in China may suppress prices. The demand side has some drag, and the inventory in Qingdao has not reached the de - stocking inflection point. However, the high prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber create a bullish sentiment. The synthetic rubber, especially BR, is in an upward channel. The rising cost of raw materials and the expected reduction in supply make its price likely to continue to rise in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market 1. Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.79% and night - session closing at 5418 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5431 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.66% and night - session closing at 5448 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 contract was at 15.51 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.19% [1]. 2. Important Information - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado expects Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 40.3 million tons, down from 43.5 million tons in the previous season. - As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 million tons (2.21%); the ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year; the cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%); the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons (0.71%) [1]. - In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is near the end, with 183 out of 210 sugar mills having stopped production, and the remaining 27 mills are expected to stop within the next 15 days. In Uttar Pradesh, about 78 sugar mills are expected to continue production until mid - April. In Guangxi, China, 10 more sugar mills stopped production from March 27th to 30th. As of March 30th, the number of sugar mills that have stopped production in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi has reached 38, more than half of the total [1]. - The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 16,862, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. 3. Market Logic - Overseas: The ICE market is in wide - range oscillation. The market focuses on the final sugar production in India and Thailand and Brazil's new - season sugar - making process. Due to geopolitical factors, the market bets on Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio favoring ethanol, tightening the sugar supply. Short - term attention should be paid to overseas macro trends and Brazil's actual production [1]. - Domestic: Zheng sugar declined yesterday, and the main contract closed above 5400 at night. The domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season is nearing completion, and the expected increase in production is basically achieved. The domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose, but the approaching sugar - making season in Brazil and the tense Middle - East situation make Brazil's sugar - making prospects unclear. The high price of raw sugar provides some support, and there is also a potential policy bottom. Technically, Zheng sugar is still in an upward channel, but there is pressure above, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see for Zheng sugar, and focus on short - term trading in the near future [1]. Rubber Market 1. Market Quotes - The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.18%; the NR main contract closed at 13,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.73%; the BR main contract closed at 17,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.12% [4]. 2. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 80 Thai baht/kg (0.5/1%), and the cup - rubber price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg (0/0%). In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 15,300 yuan/ton (300/2%), and for producing concentrated latex was 15,300 yuan/ton (100/0.66%), with a price difference of 0 yuan/ton (- 200). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,800 yuan/ton (0/0%); in Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (0/0%), and for producing concentrated latex was 16,500 yuan/ton (0/0%) [4]. - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons (0.85%). The bonded - area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general - trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples in Qingdao decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general - trade warehouses increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [4]. - The price of whole - milk rubber was 16,250 yuan/ton (- 150/- 0.91%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2,015 US dollars/ton (- 20/- 0.98%), equivalent to 13,943 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,700 yuan/ton (- 100/- 0.63%) [4]. - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2,740 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton; the price difference between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 645 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 95 yuan/ton [4]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 17,600 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 17,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The natural rubber market oscillated weakly yesterday and rebounded at night. The seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, while the new - season tapping in China may suppress prices. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The inventory in Qingdao has not reached the de - stocking inflection point, which suppresses the rubber price. In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber are mixed, but the high prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber create a bullish sentiment [4]. - Synthetic rubber: BR is still in an upward channel. The continuous impact of crude oil and frequent news of butadiene exports have increased the raw - material cost of cis - butadiene rubber, and some merchants' quoting intentions remain firm. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber continues to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. In the short term, the price of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to rise, and its price will fluctuate according to the macro situation and upstream production [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For the RU main contract, pay attention to whether it can stand above 16,750, and if so, look for pressure at 17,000; for the NR main contract, pay attention to the pressure around 14,000; hold the long positions of BR [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal TA has partial restarts and increased load, with开工 rate rising. Polyester reduces load due to filament production cuts, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, disproportionation and isomerization benefits are compressed, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread rebounds. There are potential short - term long - allocation opportunities as PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized [2]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based load reduction slows down, coal - based restarts partially, and the开工 rate rises. Overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, the basis is stable, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits increase. Supply may still have some load reduction, and with increased export/transshipment trade, the destocking speed may accelerate in the short term. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the开工 rate rises to 91.0% as some plants increase load. Sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. On the demand side, the yarn production start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory is maintained, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken. The short - term upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, PTA spot price increased from 102.2 to 118.4, PTA device in Fujian Bahong with a capacity of 2.5 million tons reduced load. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2605 is - 58 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Proximal TA restarts and increases load, polyester reduces load, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread rebounds [2]. - **Outlook**: There are potential short - term long - allocation opportunities as PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized [2]. MEG - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, MEG outer - market price increased from 595 to 640, and the Henan Coal Industry's 200,000 - ton device restarted. The basis of MEG spot transactions is around + 2 for 05 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Proximal domestic oil - based load reduction slows down, coal - based restarts partially, and the开工 rate rises. Overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, the basis is stable, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits increase [2]. - **Outlook**: Supply may still have some load reduction, and with increased export/transshipment trade, the destocking speed may accelerate in the short term. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 8060 to 8320, and the开工 rate rose to 91.0%. The spot price is around 8295, and the market basis is around - 50 for 06 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Some plants increase load, sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. On the demand side, the yarn production start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory is maintained, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken [2]. - **Outlook**: The short - term upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 2000 to 2015, and there are various price changes in other types of rubber. The main strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Market Analysis**: No detailed market analysis provided in the given content. - **Outlook**: Wait and see [2]. Benzene and Its Derivatives - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 1400 on March 31, and there are price changes in pure benzene, benzene ethylene, and their downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [5]. - **Market Analysis**: No detailed market analysis provided in the given content. - **Outlook**: No outlook provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - With the supply pressure from the rubber tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events boosting synthetic rubber, the subsequent rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict between the United States and Iran [1]. Polyolefins - The pricing power returns to hedging merchants, the basis strengthens, and the transaction volume increases. PP and PE continue to see a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. PP is destocking, while PE inventory is accumulating. In April, it is expected that the spot market will tighten and the basis will strengthen, driven by the "strong cost + reduced supply" logic [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The cost - end support has weakened, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is generally viewed as oscillating, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1,150 - 1,250. Short positions can be held. - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased, the demand is sluggish, the cost support has weakened, and there is still inventory - removal pressure. It is also viewed as oscillating. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has generally declined. The market is affected by the weakening of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about high - price demand suppression. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, but the supply shortage still provides fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures are weakly oscillating, the supply has increased slightly, the inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand increment is less than expected. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. - For PVC, the futures have fallen significantly, the export demand is poor, the market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a strong bottom support. It may be weakly adjusted in the short term [5]. Urea - The urea futures are weakly oscillating, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, the inventory is at a relatively low level, but the supply is still loose. The demand is in a transition period, and the market lacks clear upward or downward drivers. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, with the main contract focusing on the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading theme is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillating pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with a short - term tight - balance supply - demand situation. The supply side is expected to see an increase in far - month imports, while the demand side is generally positive, but the MTO profit is weakening. Two major risks need to be watched: geopolitical easing and continuous compression of MTO profit [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand is expected to improve, and the short - term price may fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high. - For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening slightly, but the supply - demand situation is still tight. The short - term absolute price fluctuates with the oil price, and the same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand is weak in the short term, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the price has support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the oil price trend. - For PTA, the short - term self - driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. The same strategy as for PX is recommended. - For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the price has upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the risk of a pull - back. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weakening, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The same strategy as for PX is recommended, and the PF processing margin can be expanded at a low level below 800. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the processing margin is expected to be strong. The PR unilateral strategy is the same as for PTA, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to be strong [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of most natural rubber varieties have declined slightly, with the Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropping 0.31%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber price falling 0.63%. The basis of full - latex has increased, and the non - standard price difference has also increased [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 4.70%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8.44%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 120.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand in January increased by 11.09%, while that in Indonesia and India decreased. The tire export volume in February decreased by 12.40%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 28.46%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 0.85%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 9.23% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined, with the L2605 closing price dropping 2.16%. The L59 spread, PP59 spread, and LP05 spread have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Data**: The PE device operating rate has decreased by 4.79%, the downstream weighted operating rate has increased by 5.75%. The PE enterprise inventory has increased by 3.45%, and the social inventory has decreased by 6.58%. The PP enterprise inventory has decreased by 16.19%, and the trader inventory has decreased by 8.18% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash are stable. The glass 2605 contract has dropped 2.02%, and the soda ash 2605 contract has dropped 2.49%. The 05 basis of glass and soda ash has increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 5.22%, and the weekly production has decreased by 5.22%. The float - glass daily melting volume has decreased by 0.62%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume has decreased by 2.28%. The glass factory inventory has decreased by 1.09%, and the soda ash factory inventory has decreased by 0.10% [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main LPG contract PG2605 has dropped 4.04%, and the PG05 - 06 and PG05 - 07 spreads have decreased. The South China spot price has decreased by 0.28%, and the deliverable spot price has decreased by 1.24% [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has decreased by 4.34%, the port inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the port storage capacity ratio has increased by 0.67%. The upstream - main refinery operating rate has decreased by 3.54%, and the downstream - PDH operating rate has decreased by 3.09% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda has decreased by 4.3%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - method PVC has decreased by 3.9%. The SH2605 and V2605 contracts have also declined [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate has increased by 0.8%, and the PVC total operating rate has increased by 1.0%. The alumina industry operating rate has increased by 0.1%, and the Longzhong sample PVC pipe operating rate has increased by 5.1% [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The main contract has dropped 2.71%. The 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 spreads have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production has decreased by 0.36%, the production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 4.17%, and the factory - warehouse inventory has decreased by 13.40% [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude has dropped 3.18%, WTI crude has dropped 1.46%, and SC crude has dropped 1.80%. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads have increased [7]. - **Refined Oil Products**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have all declined. The refined - oil cracking spreads in the United States, Europe, and Singapore have also decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices have declined, with the MA2605 closing price dropping 2.71%. The MA59 spread has decreased by 3.90%, and the MTO05盘面 profit has increased by 44.94% [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The methanol enterprise inventory has decreased by 10.71%, the port inventory has decreased by 8.42%, and the social inventory has decreased by 9.05%. The upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate has increased by 1.74%, and the downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate has increased by 10.42% [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude and WTI crude have changed. The price of pure benzene and styrene has declined. The EB05 - BZ05 spread has increased by 4.6% [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 3.3%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 4.6%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has increased by 6.4%, and the styrene operating rate has decreased by 0.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have also fluctuated [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The MEG port inventory has increased by 3.5%, and the arrival expectation has decreased by 33.3%. The Asian PX operating rate has decreased by 2.8%, and the PTA operating rate has increased by 3.6% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month. The fundamental factors of natural rubber present a situation of both support and pressure. The macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, but the upward trend of synthetic rubber restricts the downward space of natural rubber prices [8][90][91] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In March 2026, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber fluctuated in the range of 15,885 - 17,600 yuan/ton, with a high - level oscillation. It dropped significantly after two surges at the beginning of the month and rebounded in the late month, with a large overall decline in the month. As of March 31, 2026, it closed at 16,345 yuan/ton, down 810 points or 4.72% for the month [6][13] 现货 Price - As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous month. As of March 30, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,560 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous month [17][20] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with the previous month. As of March 31, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 190 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than the previous month [24] Domestic and Foreign Prices of Natural Rubber - As of March 31, the domestic price of natural rubber dropped significantly compared with the previous month, while the foreign price rose slightly [28] Important Market Information - The US and Iran are in talks to end the military operation in Iran, but there are differences in positions between the two sides. Iran plans to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the continued jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US PPI in February rose 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in February rose as expected. The global economic growth rate is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. China's economic data shows that the CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the PPI decreased 0.9% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased 15.2% year - on - year. The auto sales in February decreased, but the auto export increased [32][33][34][35][36][37][38] Supply - side Situation - As of January 31, 2026, the production in the main producing areas of Thailand and Malaysia increased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia, India, and Vietnam decreased slightly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period with zero production. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in January 2026 was 990,500 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons or 1.71% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. As of February 28, 2026, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 7,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [42][47][51] Demand - side Situation - As of March 26, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.24%, down 0.01% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 70.75%, up 0.03% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, China's monthly auto production was 1.6724 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.73%. The monthly auto sales were 1.8052 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 23.07%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 73,553 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.18%. As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 106.263 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. As of February 28, 2026, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 56.07 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4%. The auto sales in major global countries in February 2026 showed different trends [56][59][64][67][71][74][78] Inventory - side Situation - As of March 31, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,410 tons, an increase of 10,940 tons from the previous month. As of March 22, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 685,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons or 1.18% from the previous period [82][87] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic rubber - tapping is gradually starting smoothly. The raw material supply is generally tight, and the purchase price continues to rise, which supports the rubber price. Demand: In March, with the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, the market trading atmosphere gradually recovered, and the operating rate has remained at a high level recently. However, the terminal auto market is not performing well. Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last month, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased slightly week - on - week, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week [88][89] 后市 Outlook - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated at a high level in March 2026, with a large overall decline in the month. In the future, the macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, and the supply pressure has been alleviated, with cost support for the rubber price. The demand will form a certain support, but the terminal consumption is average, and the continuous inventory accumulation in Qingdao exerts pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month [90][91] Views and Operation Strategies - This month's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, consider a range - bound operation; for arbitrage and options, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides an analysis of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each commodity [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the Wenhua Commodity Index dropped significantly. Spot basis remained stable, but spot trading demand was weak. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The domestic peak season showed good performance, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well - digested. The short - term pure cotton yarn sales slowed down. Mid - term, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish strategy [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. The market focuses on Brazil's sugar production forecast. After the rainy season, the rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil is low, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season is expected to decline, so the sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, the production progress in Guangxi this year is slow, and the production is lower than the same period last year. However, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season. The sugar sales of sugar mills this year are poor. In general, the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas decreased, and the trading volume in Shandong was small. As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The trading logic is mainly on the demand side. The demand in the northwest producing areas is good, but the apples in Shandong have poor quality and high purchase prices, which may affect the de - stocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber WR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also decreased. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate continued to decline rapidly. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the production and transportation cost pressure of domestic tire enterprises increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 69.14 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see and grasp the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded but then declined. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, a 980,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase. The overseas quotation of pulp is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The domestic pulp demand is generally average, and the procurement of high - price broad - leaf pulp is cautious. The short - term pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, and the domestic spot price was relatively weak. The downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. As of March 27, the national port log total inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease. The low inventory supports the price to a certain extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]