橡胶：回落做多 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（8.18—8.22） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场小幅回落，价格区间震荡 基本面因素偏多支撑价格 回落做多 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15850 | 16020 | 15470 | 15625 | -1.76% | | NR2510 | 12710 | 12790 | 12350 | 12510 | -1.57% | | BR2510 | 11835 | 11980 | 11355 | 11660 | -1.35% | 本周市场小幅回落，未能突破震荡区间平台上沿。但价格在下方有支撑，多头 形态保持良好，后市有望延续多头格局。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14650 元/吨，相比上周下跌 100 元/吨 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 降息升温天气扰动，盘面或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15470-16020 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡偏弱，总体小幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15625 元/吨，当周下跌 280 点，跌幅 1.76%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡偏弱，总体小幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，周末美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍 尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称就业面临的下行风险上升，加 大市场对美联储 9 月降息预期；同时关注关注美俄乌三国元首 会晤情况。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产区和国 内产区降雨较多，本周末台风"剑鱼"登陆海南，影响割胶工 作，提振原料价格，供给端存在一定支 ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-25 原油 2025/08/25 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：截至上周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.29 美元，涨幅 0.46%，报 63.77 美元；布伦 特主力原油期货收涨 0.12 美元，涨幅 0.18%，报 67.79 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.30 元， 涨幅 0.47%，报 487 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.03 百万桶至 8.73 百万桶，环比去 库 0.29%；柴油库存环比累库 1.27 百万桶至 15.16 百万桶，环比累库 9.13%；燃料油库存环 比去库 0.11 百万桶至 6.64 百万桶，环比去库 1.60%；石脑油环比去库 0.75 百万桶至 4.97 百 万桶，环比去库 13.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.17 百万桶至 7.45 百万桶，环比累库 2.27%； 总体成品油环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 42.95 百万桶，环比累库 1.31%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认 ...

PTA装置变化 逸盛海南200万吨检修；恒力徽州500万吨检修。 芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 72.9 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 72.9 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 72.9 36545 0 0.70 2025/0 8/21 67.7 585 852 4810 6805 88.48 267.0 156 31 79.0 72.9 33102 15 0.70 2025/0 8/22 67.7 587 857 4870 6865 90.54 270.0 197 38 79.3 72.9 33102 20 0.40 变化 0.0 2 5 60 60.00 2.06 3.0 41 7 0.3 0.0 0 5 -0.3 ...

2025 年 8 月 24 日 本周毛鸡价格上涨，鸡苗价格持平。截至 8 月 22 日，白羽肉毛鸡价格为 7.33 元/公斤，周环比上涨 1.81%，鸡苗价格 3.58 元/羽，与上周持平。毛鸡方面， 本周屠宰企业压价、鸡肉冻品走货不畅，但肉鸡出栏量有限、局部供给偏紧， 价格暂获支撑、高位窄幅震荡。鸡苗方面，毛鸡盈利仍存、种禽场高报低走， 当前补栏窗口渐窄，规模场挺价的同时，散户补栏情绪偏谨慎，市场博弈加 剧，苗价进入震荡调整。 本周玉米、小麦、豆粕现货价格下跌。截至 8 月 22 日，玉米现货均价为 2373.53 元/吨，环比下跌 0.86%；小麦现货均价为 2432 元/吨，环比下跌 0.25%，豆粕现货均价 3084.29 元/吨，环比下跌 0.41%。玉米方面，本周玉米 现货价格继续走弱，受春玉米陆续上市、小麦替代优势仍在，以及贸易商出库 意愿增强影响，市场流通粮源充裕而用粮企业采购谨慎，压价情绪升温，玉米 价格整体偏弱运行。豆粕方面，本周豆粕价格延续跌势，受国内现货供应宽 松、油厂库存高位及新作丰产预期压制，贸易商降价出货意愿增强，但外盘成 本支撑下跌幅有限，短期弱势震荡为主。天然橡胶价格下跌。截 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) (白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定 ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-08-22 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 011. 2025年8月20日-8月26日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中泰国 南部、柬埔寨西南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水量区域主要 分布在马来西亚东部、印尼东部地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周橡胶盘面窄幅震荡。从宏观面看，本周国内股市不断创出新高但对商品市场提振因素有限，临近09合约交割商品交易 现实端权重增大。从橡胶基本面看，本周国内外原料价格偏稳运行。国内外主产区降雨天气，对原料价格有所提振，但幅 度相对有限，橡胶成本端存支撑。本期青岛保税库一改前期去库态势，出现明显的累库，同时云南入库量较大导致库存攀 升，整体社会库库存出现增长。橡胶下游需求方面，全钢胎开工率延续走高，整体需求有支撑，库存压力不大。雪地胎市 场开始备货，半钢胎产能利用率小幅回升，但库存去化仍旧缓慢。综合来 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月21日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱交投尚可，价格总体偏稳。国内7月份库存消化节奏有 所放缓，预计8月份或有所好转，因逐渐临近金九银十旺季，库存偏紧对于价格仍有支撑。国内7月份棉花进口仍在低位，7月进 □5万吨，同比降14.94万吨，环比增2.26万吨；2025年1-7月累计进口52 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral [5] - BR is rated neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain stops. Currently, the overall supply pressure is small, but there is an expectation of increased supply at the end of August. Downstream tire开工率 shows a divided trend, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the supply is expected to increase next week. The downstream tire开工率 is divided, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,720 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the NR main contract was at 12,600 yuan/ton (+75 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,775 yuan/ton (+60 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton), Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15 US dollars/ton), Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton) [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery due to factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old operating trucks, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million pieces; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million pieces; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000 pieces; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million pieces; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million pieces [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,100 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,148 yuan/ton (- 35.31), the NR basis was 303.00 yuan/ton (+15.00); whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90), 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (+50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,320 yuan/ton (+90) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.15) [4] -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+2.35%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+2.76%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,090 yuan/ton (+99) [5] -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis BR was 69.15% (+4.63%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（25-08-22） 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 10 合约报收 11820 点，上涨+45 点或 +0.38%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11700-11800 元/吨，山东 民营顺丁报收 11600-11650 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11700-11800 元/ 吨，华南地区茂名石化顺丁报收 11700 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 12200 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 9400-9450 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 01 合约报收 15765 点，上涨+45 点或 +0.29%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 14750-14900 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 14900-14950 元/吨。NR 主力 10 合约报收 12630 点，上涨+30 点或+0.24%；新加 坡 TF 主力 11 合约报收 172.1 点，上涨+1.0 点或+0.58%。截至前日 18 时，泰标 近港船货报收 1795-1820 美元/吨，泰混近港船货报收 1795-1820 美元/ ...