Core Viewpoint - A senior German military official warns that Russia has the capability to launch limited attacks on NATO territory at any time, depending on the stance of Western allies [1] Group 1: Military Capabilities and Intentions - Russia could potentially launch a small-scale attack on NATO territory as early as tomorrow, according to General Alexander Sollfrank, who emphasizes that such an attack would be limited in scale and speed due to Russia's current military commitments in Ukraine [1] - Despite setbacks in Ukraine, Russia's air force remains strong, and its nuclear and missile capabilities have not been affected [1] - Russia aims to increase its total military personnel to 1.5 million and possesses sufficient main battle tanks, supporting the feasibility of a limited attack [2] Group 2: NATO's Response and Defense Strategy - The establishment of the German Joint Operations Command in 2024 marks a strategic shift in Germany's defense policy from overseas missions to the defense of NATO territory [2] - Germany plans to increase its defense spending from nearly €100 billion in 2025 to approximately €160 billion (about $187 billion) by 2029, aligning with NATO's new core military spending target of 3.5% of GDP [3] - The potential for a Russian attack on NATO is influenced by three factors: Russia's military strength, its military record, and leadership decisions, with NATO's deterrence efforts playing a significant role [3] Group 3: Strategic Implications of Russian Actions - Recent incidents, such as Russian drones entering Polish airspace, have heightened Western concerns about Russia escalating conflicts [3] - Russia's mixed warfare tactics, including drone incursions, are part of a broader strategy that encompasses its military actions in Ukraine, referred to as "non-linear warfare" [3] - The intent behind Russian provocations is to test NATO's reactions, create unease, spread fear, and assess the alliance's resilience [4]