季节性缺口

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季节性缺口支撑,国内玉米震荡偏强
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, corn prices fluctuated upwards. In the overseas market, recent favorable weather in US corn - growing areas has been beneficial for corn growth. Last week, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 72%, higher than expected, putting downward pressure on US corn prices. In the domestic market, as of June 20, the winter wheat harvest in the country is nearing completion, and reserves in many areas have started to enter the market to purchase wheat, supporting wheat prices. Corn is in a period of shortage, and with slower shipments from traders, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises remains low, and port inventories are continuously decreasing, making the short - term corn spot price strong. In terms of demand, current feed enterprise inventories are relatively abundant, and the off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking. Feed enterprises purchase as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry is entering the off - season, but the recovery of processing profits has slightly increased demand. In the short term, corn may fluctuate due to reduced shipments from domestic corn traders, support from reserve purchases for wheat prices, and market concerns about the sale of rotated corn. In the long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supply, port inventories continue to be consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, the seasonal shortage will support the bullish expectation for far - month corn [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 429.00 cents per bushel, down 15.75 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 3.54%. The C2509 corn closed at 2409 yuan per ton, up 5 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.21% [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis External Market Corn - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall in US soybean - growing areas, and the temperature will gradually drop [13]. - **Growth**: As of the week of June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 72%, higher than the market expectation of 71%, the previous week was 71%, and the same period last year was 72%. The emergence rate was 94%, compared with 87% the previous week, 92% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 94%. As of the week of June 17, about 17% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 18% the previous week and 2% last year [13][22]. - **Export**: As of the week of June 12, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 90.4 tons, compared with 79.1 tons the previous week. The net sales of corn in the 2025/2026 season were 15.5 tons, compared with - 3 tons the previous week [13][26]. Domestic Inventory - **Feed Enterprises**: As of June 19, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.07 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.96% [13][30]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises**: As of June 18, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 459.2 tons, a decrease of 1.27% [13][39]. - **Northern Ports**: As of June 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 290 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.9 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 37.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.5 tons [13][42]. - **Southern Ports**: As of June 13, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 113.5 tons, an increase of 11.9 tons from last week. The foreign trade inventory was 0.3 tons, the same as last week. The imported sorghum was 43.3 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from last week, and the imported barley was 33.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [42]. Demand - **Feed Enterprises**: Current feed enterprise inventories are relatively abundant, and the off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking. Feed enterprises purchase as needed [6]. - **Processing Enterprises**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 54.68 tons, an increase of 0.98 tons from last week. The weekly national corn starch output was 26.7 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons from last week. The weekly operating rate was 51.61%, an increase of 2.9% from last week [35]. 3. Spread Tracking - The content only lists the types of spreads such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - to - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - to - corn spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [47][48].