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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250528
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 11:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral, with upstream inventory accumulation during holidays. The import profit is around - 400, and there's no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [7]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The basis is + 10, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 500, and there's no large - scale export transaction. With less planned maintenance, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure, and pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly PDH device maintenance of 2 million tons [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors in June [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2330 to 2250, a decrease of 35. The daily change on May 27 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, - 35 in Jiangsu spot price, etc [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has started. Iran has reduced its production, but there are non - Iranian increments and increased domestic supply. It's in a bearish realization period [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price dropped from 7260 to 7025, a decrease of 235. The daily change on May 27 showed a 0 change in Northeast Asia ethylene, - 75 in North China LL price, etc [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream inventory accumulation during holidays. The import profit is around - 400, and there's no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price dropped from 6520 to 6440, a decrease of 80. The daily change on May 27 showed a - 10 change in Shandong propylene price, etc [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The basis is + 10, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 500, and there's no large - scale export transaction. With less planned maintenance, supply is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price dropped from 2500 to 2400, a decrease of 100. The daily change on May 27 showed a - 50 change in Northwest calcium carbide price, etc [11][12]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc [12].