2026年01月05日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周三白银 COMEX 提保，压制金属整体价格。中国 PMI 超预期。美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，市场担忧 | | | | 铜 | 南美铜供应问题。供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改。需求端，铜价调整后贴水缩小。精废价差 3400 元附近。 | | | | | 交易策略：逢低做多。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周三电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.60%，收于 22925 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-370 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 3021 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境延续积极态势，LME 铝价突破 3000 美元/吨形成强劲外部带动，不过国内库存仍在持续 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-25 烧碱山东去库江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4781元/吨（+43）；华东基差-301元/吨（-3）;华南基差-281元/吨（+7）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4480元/吨（+40）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（+50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（-30）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-110元/吨（+24）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-986元/吨（+116）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-469元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-6.0美元/吨（-5.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.9万吨（-1.6）；PVC社会库存51.1万吨（-0.7）；PVC电石法开工率77.01%（-2.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率74.06%（-2.61%）；PVC开工率76.12%（-2.27%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量76.2万吨（+11.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2250元/吨（+31）；山东32%液碱基差0元/吨（-31）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价720元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：020- 88818018 邮箱：chenshangyu@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供 ...

机构 核心观点 五矿期货 PX关注逢低做多的机会 新湖期货 PX偏强运行 东海期货 PX短期将继续保持偏强震荡格局 12月22日盘中，对二甲苯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至7248.0元。截止发稿，对二甲苯 主力合约报7180.0元，涨幅2.87%。 对二甲苯期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 五矿期货：PX关注逢低做多的机会 目前PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA检修较多，整体负荷中枢较低，PTA投产较多叠加下游逐渐转淡季预期 下压制PTA加工费，而PTA低开工导致PX库存难以持续去化，预期十二月份PX小幅累库。目前估值中 性水平，芳烃数据回落和偏弱的现实没有使得PXN进一步压缩，反而开始计价中期的良好格局预期，关 注逢低做多的机会。 短期PX基本面变化不大。明年三季度前，在新产能落地之前，PX难以明显累库，供需偏紧格局持续， 市场对PX预期乐观，PX偏强运行。 东海期货：PX短期将继续保持偏强震荡格局 PX明年仅有一套投产，导致市场预期继续偏紧，提前盘面计价发酵，配合PTA大幅增仓共振上行。PX 价格大幅上行至866美金，对石脑油价差也回升至305美金水平。另外短期原油风险溢价支 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-03 俄罗斯海上原油量持续攀升，甲醇关注 12⽉的进⼝压⼒ 化工品近期的反弹开始略显迟疑。甲醇在海外限气的提振下，近期期 价反弹；同时前期较高的开工导致伊朗11月装船量再创历史新高，12月可 能出现非伊甲醇减量，伊朗货源依旧充足的情况，12月甲醇的进口压力依 旧较大。而烯烃端也没有实质性利好。资金换月和原油反弹短暂拉升了烯 烃价格，但生产企业仍以去库存为核心导向，通过下调出厂价、加大促销 力度等方式积极去库；需求端则以刚需为主，并未有投机性囤货举措。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价大跌，测试2800重要支撑位 高硫燃油：燃油期价弱势震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价弱势震荡 甲醇：12月沿海卸货预期偏高，内地供需阶段性支撑，甲醇震荡整理 尿素：淡储推进暂缓，盘面震荡整理 乙二醇：国内供应阶段性见顶，但海外货源供应充裕 PX：供需双强，叠加市场预期偏强下利润持续扩张 PTA：现货市场氛围改善，基差偏强运行 短纤：下游维持观望居多，持续追涨意愿不强 瓶片：价格波动率收窄，成交氛围小幅回落 丙烯：PG带动，P ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可维的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息89准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 不同观点、见解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 品种买卖的出价或间价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发明贫所有， 授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 t注盘信公众5 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 锡观点 | 刊 【2011】1292号 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 F OF 18日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9500 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].