锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可维的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息89准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 不同观点、见解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 品种买卖的出价或间价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发明贫所有， 授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 t注盘信公众5 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 锡观点 | 刊 【2011】1292号 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 F OF 18日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9500 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the weakening of macro - drivers, the trading of the black series will return to the real - world situation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the overall supply - demand of iron ore tends to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation pressure is within an expectable range, and the current domestic basis is still relatively high with a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Last week, the black series rebounded collectively, with raw material prices rising more significantly due to positive macro - drivers such as the Fed's interest rate cut, better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, it will enter a policy vacuum period. The Fed's interest rate cut has fully realized its positive impact, and hawkish statements have curbed market optimism. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses more on new - quality productivity, with limited and long - term boost to steel demand. Although the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies may maintain export resilience, the reality of weak supply and demand in domestic manufacturing data is difficult to improve [3] Supply - Overseas iron ore supply is increasing steadily, but the supporting strength is continuously weakening. In October, the weekly average shipment from Australia and Brazil was 27.32 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to October, the weekly average shipment was 25.46 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume in October will remain at a high level. In November, due to seasonal maintenance of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment ports, the supply is expected to decline by 10 million tons month - on - month but still have an increase of over 3 million tons year - on - year. Due to the high shipment in October, the arrival volume in November is expected to remain at an absolute high level, basically flat month - on - month and an increase of over 10 million tons year - on - year [3] Demand - Domestic demand has been declining month - on - month mainly because of the temporary tightening of environmental protection in Hebei, which led some steel mills to shut down or reduce their loads. This week, although the blast furnace operating rate increased, the molten iron output decreased. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level of the year. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate are continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline slope is not steep. Coupled with steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end has rebounded slightly month - on - month as steel mills enter the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume at the same period and the decline in port clearance volume due to weather reasons, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating month - on - month [3] Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to an overseas price of about 100 - 107 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the current situation has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data on a month - on - month basis supports the continuation of polyester operation. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance. With limited new capacity coming online in the far - month, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3] - For MEG, the domestic oil - based maintenance has been implemented in the near - term with some unexpected events, leading to a decline in the load on a month - on - month basis. Overseas operations are stable, and port inventories will continue to accumulate slightly at the beginning of next week. The arrival forecast for the week has declined, and the basis has strengthened on a month - on - month basis. The profitability and price ratio of coal - based MEG have rebounded. In the future, with the high - level operation of existing EG capacity and new capacity coming online, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the weakening of coal - based profitability and price ratio, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Considering the recent strengthening of coal prices, attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [8] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation is stable, with the operation rate maintained at 94.3%. The production and sales have improved on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased, with a slight weakening in profitability. In the future, the overall profitability and operation rate of polyester yarn have not significantly improved. The export of staple fiber itself has maintained high growth. With the decent spot profitability, the high operation rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee on the futures market is not high. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [8] - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8] Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.2, naphtha decreased by 9, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 10, PTA domestic spot price increased by 30, and POY 150D/48F increased by 15. The naphtha cracking spread decreased by 0.06, PX processing margin decreased by 1, PTA processing margin remained unchanged, and polyester gross profit decreased by 5. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 4104, the TA basis increased by 1, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 0.2 [2] - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 3 - million - ton device was put into operation [2] MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 16, MEG East China price decreased by 16, and MEG far - month price decreased by 15. The coal - based MEG profit decreased by 16, the MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, the total MEG load, coal - based MEG load, MEG port inventory, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged [8] - **Device Changes**: Fujian Refining's 400,000 - ton device was under maintenance [8] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 40, the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, the price of virgin hollow staple fiber increased by 40, and the prices of other products remained unchanged. The profit of virgin staple fiber increased by 20, the profit of pure polyester yarn decreased by 20, the price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 80, and the price difference between viscose and polyester staple fiber decreased by 40 [8] - **Device and Market Information**: The near - term device operation is stable, with the operation rate maintained at 94.3%. The production and sales have improved on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory has continued to decline. The spot price is around 6381, and the market basis is around - 30 for December [8] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by 15, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of RMB - denominated mixed rubber decreased by 50, and the prices of other products had corresponding changes. The daily change in the price difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 30, the price difference between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract remained unchanged, and other price differences also had corresponding changes [8] - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping [8] Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 65, and the prices of other products had corresponding changes. The daily change in the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) remained unchanged, the price of ABS (0215A) remained unchanged, the Asian price difference between pure benzene and naphtha remained unchanged, the domestic profit of styrene remained unchanged, the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 30, the domestic profit of PS increased by 69, and the domestic profit of ABS remained unchanged [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is weak, with most products expected to experience weak fluctuations. Specific ratings for each product include: oil (weakly fluctuating), asphalt (weakly fluctuating), high - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), low - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), PX (fluctuating), PTA (fluctuating), pure benzene (weakly fluctuating), styrene (weakly fluctuating), MEG (weakly fluctuating), short - fiber (fluctuating), polyester bottle - chip (fluctuating), methanol (weakly fluctuating in the short - term), urea (weakly fluctuating), LLDPE (weakly fluctuating), PP (weakly fluctuating), PL (weakly fluctuating), PVC (fluctuating), and caustic soda (fluctuating) [10][11][14][17][18][19][22][24][28][29][33][34][35][37][38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price is in a stable and fluctuating state, and the Brent oil price remains within the 65 - 70 range. The SC oil price has fallen to the lower edge of the range due to high domestic crude oil inventories. The market is focused on the Israel - Hamas agreement, but there are doubts about its final implementation. The coking coal price rebounded on the first trading day after the holiday, and there is a possibility of price stabilization for coal [1]. - On the evening of October 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on "regulating price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market order," which may slightly boost the sentiment of the domestic sluggish commodity market. For chemical products, there has been no effective production reduction. The supply side has not effectively responded to losses, and the chemical market pattern remains weak [2]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be weakly fluctuating, with oil as the anchor. If geopolitical disturbances gradually weaken, the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - **Oil**: The US Treasury's sanctions on entities related to Iranian oil have not significantly affected oil prices. Global supply is in an increasing phase dominated by high - growth OPEC+ production, with a surplus pressure. After the weakening of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to return to a downward channel [10]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ production increase, a reduction in Saudi's export premium to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in the geopolitical premium, putting pressure on asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [11]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The sudden agreement in the Israel - Hamas conflict has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. Although there is an improvement in demand expectations, the impact of geopolitical upgrades on prices is expected to be short - term [11]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the weak trend of oil, facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [13]. - **PX**: Although there are some device outages, the overall supply is still relatively abundant. With the poor performance of polyester and textile clothing demand, PX profits are expected to be under pressure [14]. - **PTA**: The cost has short - term support, and the supply - demand situation in October is relatively stable. However, the market has a pessimistic expectation of future supply - demand loosening. If there is no large - scale production reduction, processing fees will remain under pressure [16]. - **Pure benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday inventory build - up has strengthened the market structure, but the supply is expected to exceed demand until the end of the year, with significant inventory accumulation pressure in October [17]. - **Styrene**: Although the supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance, the high inventory in the upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce, and the cost - side pure benzene inventory is also difficult to clear, dragging down the styrene price [18]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is gradually being realized, and the inventory accumulation inflection point is approaching. Although the inventory accumulation amplitude is limited, domestic production is expected to increase, and polyester demand may weaken [22]. - **Short - fiber**: The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber price follows slightly. Although the terminal demand has marginally improved, the procurement is still cautious, and the overall driving force is limited [23]. - **Polyester bottle - chip**: The price follows the upstream cost fluctuations. Under the joint production reduction of bottle - chip factories, the processing fees are relatively stable. The expansion space of processing fees is limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans [26]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the weakening of olefins and inventory accumulation, the futures price has declined. However, considering the potential disturbances from Iran, there may be some room for rebound after a continuous decline [28]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there is a supply - demand mismatch, agricultural demand is weakening, and there is no short - term positive news. The market is expected to be weakly fluctuating [29]. - **LLDPE**: It follows the weak trend of the energy and chemical market. The supply - demand situation is not optimistic, and the profit support is limited. The price is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [33]. - **PP**: Affected by the decline of PG, the price has fallen. The supply - side pressure remains, and the transmission of raw material price decline is obvious [35]. - **PL**: Affected by the decline of PG, the futures price has fallen, but the spot price has some support, and it is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [35]. - **PVC**: There are still fundamental pressures, and the cost change is expected to be small. It is expected to be cautiously weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [37]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory build - up and upstream start - up changes [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.59 with a change of 0.02, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 16 [40]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product are different. For example, the basis of asphalt is 115 with a change of 39, and the warehouse receipt is 44430 [41]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spread data also vary. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 125 with a change of 7, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 426 with a change of 39 [43]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although there are sub - sections for various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data summaries are provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity market have different performance. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.66% to 2541.25, the industrial products index increased by 0.87% to 2238.71, and the energy index decreased by 1.98% on October 9th, 2025 [287][289].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The PX and PTA markets are under pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory build - up, and are expected to continue their weak trend. The polyester industry chain is in a weak supply - demand pattern and may maintain a weak and volatile short - term performance [2][5]. - Future prices of PX and PTA may continue to face downward pressure, with supply - side开工率 remaining stable or high, cost support weakening due to falling crude oil prices, demand being dragged down by the possible weakening of polyester demand, and inventory likely to accumulate [37]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 8, the PX main contract closed at 6726.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 9.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4684.0 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.41 US dollars/barrel, and the WTI was 63.82 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 486.27 million meters [3]. - In terms of supply, the short - term supply pressure of PX and PTA has increased marginally. The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant collapse in PX cost support. Although the PX plant maintenance plan has not been implemented, PX enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain a high operating rate. For PTA, the restart plan of plants in August has increased, and the operating rate may remain high, with an increasing expectation of short - term supply relaxation [3]. - In terms of demand, polyester and terminal demand show seasonal weakness. The average transaction volume of the Light Textile City in the past 15 days is 486.27 million meters, and the recent transaction volume has further declined to 479 million meters, indicating that terminal textile orders have not improved substantially. The polyester operating rate may fluctuate narrowly between 84% - 86% and is difficult to drive PTA demand beyond expectations [4]. - In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory has the risk of passive accumulation. The PTA supply - demand balance has changed from tight to loose in August, and the destocking cycle may end. If demand remains weak and new PTA plants are put into production as expected, social inventory may return to the inventory build - up channel, and the spot basis will continue to be at a discount, suppressing the elasticity of futures prices [4]. Polyester - On August 8, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6382.0 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 108.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream raw material supply is abundant or the cost support is weakening. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory days of polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased and are higher than the five - year average, and the overall inventory pressure is large. In the short term, the polyester industry chain may maintain a weak and volatile operation [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.44% to 6.726 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 25.72% to 64,578 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.12% to 91,057 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port remained unchanged at 839.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.10% to 806 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 142.86% to 9 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.09% to 4,684 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16.74% to 347,274 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.40% to 700,930 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port decreased by 0.96% to 622 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 200.00% to 6 yuan/ton [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.16% to 6,382 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4.03% to 109,840 lots, and the open interest increased by 2.40% to 178,205 lots. The mainstream spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,490 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 10.20% to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - Other prices: The Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.14% to 66.32 US dollars/barrel, the US crude oil main contract decreased by 0.74% to 63.35 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 0.09% to 570.5 US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Waller became a hot candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Federal Reserve Chairman, and Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Federal Reserve's view on employment goals. The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, and the gold reserve at the end of July was 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [8]. - On August 7, Trump said that the new Federal Reserve Board member might be temporary and would announce the appointment within 2 - 3 days, and also said that if other countries imported Russian crude oil, they might be imposed a 25% tariff. Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year were reasonable [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 8, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 394.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 86.0 million meters [9]. 4. Appendix: Big Model Reasoning Process - Analyze from the supply, demand, and inventory perspectives. On the supply side, the operating rates of PX and PTA may remain stable or high, and the falling crude oil prices lead to weakened cost support. On the demand side, the slightly decreased transaction volume of the Light Textile City may indicate weakening polyester demand, which in turn drags down PTA demand. On the inventory side, inventory may accumulate due to the supply - demand relationship [35][36][37].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it will maintain a stockpiling state but the absolute inventory level is not high. The current low processing fee for spot has lasted for some time. With limited inventory pressure on filament and continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade polyester at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term stockpiling pressure is not high, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The situation is good and the profit is not low. In the long term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rate, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side. It should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellites [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the futures market is still in a low range, attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Summary by Category PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of crude oil fluctuated between 69.7 - 73.2, the price of PX CFR changed from 851 to 846, and the PTA processing margin decreased from 272.0 to 242.0 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton plant reduced its operation rate to 80% - 90%, and Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of proximal TA existing plants decreased significantly while new plants started production. The polyester operation rate declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weakly maintained, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation rate of PX increased slightly, there were some unexpected situations overseas, the PXN weakened significantly, the profitability of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the MEG outer - market price decreased from 528 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 684 to 506 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Tongliao stopped production; the 400,000 - ton plant of Xinjiang Guanghui restarted; the 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Zhonghuaxue restarted [4]. - **Market Situation**: Proximal domestic coal - based plants had some maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. Affected by the weather during the week, both port arrivals and pick - ups decreased significantly, and the port inventory still decreased slightly. The downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from the high level [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6675 to 6600, and the short - fiber profit increased from 47 to 21 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line plant of Xianglu was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material stocking decreased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1800 to 1720, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14665 to 13910 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the absolute level was not high, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 751 to 764, and the styrene domestic profit decreased from - 147 to - 218 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of PS (East China transparent benzene) and ABS (0215A) remained stable at 7830 and 10000 respectively, and the Asian price difference (pure benzene - naphtha) decreased from 160 to 138 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, and basis weakens. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak. The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - For styrene, the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, and the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of PTA inner - market spot changed from 4775 to 4800, and the PTA processing difference changed from - 207 to - 46. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(-8) [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee decreases again. PX domestic start - up decreases slightly, overseas load is stable, and PXN strengthens [3]. - **Outlook**: TA remains in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the MEG outer - market price changed from 525 to 528, and the MEG coal - to - profit changed from 687 to 684. The basis is around 09(+52) [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Downstream stocking levels rise, basis remains the same, and the benefit - comparison further expands [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber changed from 6640 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit changed from 37 to 47 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak, with stable start - up of polyester yarn, slightly increased raw - material stocking, and accumulated finished - product inventory [3]. - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. There is no obvious upward driver, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot changed from 1800 to 1800, and the price of Shanghai full - latex changed from 14660 to 14665 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [3]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of styrene (CFR China) changed from 920 to 908, and the domestic profit of styrene was 24 on July 25 and 28. The profit of EPS increased from 150 to 285 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials and downstream products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, while the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of bearish factor realization. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred, but the unilateral direction is hard to determine due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US [2] - **Plastic (PE)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [11] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are performing well. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which could be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH plant maintenance [11] - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is -450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [13] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, while the江苏现货 price increased by 12, and the华南现货 price rose by 25. The盘面MTO profit decreased by 61 [2] - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory is accumulating, and it's in a bearish factor realization phase. Iran has reduced its开工 rate, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [2] Plastic (PE) - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the东北亚乙烯 price remained unchanged, the华北LL price increased by 60, and the主力期货 price rose by 78 [11] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around -400, and 6 - month maintenance has decreased with an increase in domestic linear production [11] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the山东丙烯 price remained stable, the华东PP price increased by 10, and the主力期货 price rose by 77. The仓单 increased by 2169 [11] - **Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June [11] PVC - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the西北电石 and山东烧碱 prices remained unchanged, the电石法 - 华东 price increased by 20, and the基差 (高端交割品) decreased by 10 [12][13] - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability [13]