【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 电解铝：宏观情绪谨慎 基本面施压市场维持区间震荡 春节前后现货铝市场维持震荡态势。截至2月24日富宝A00现货铝价23390元/吨，环比节前涨0.95%。主 因，一、春节前后宏观驱动降温，春节期间海外关税调整影响亦较为温和。二、铝水比降至年内低位， 供应提升的同时下游受制于铝价高位减少备货，节后累库同比位于近五年高位，后续或攀升至130万 吨。需求端随着下游复工将有改善，当前支撑温和。后市铝价或维持23000-24000元/吨震荡。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East situation remains uncertain, and the chemical industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, continuing to fluctuate. Crude oil is still affected by geopolitics, and the relationship between the US and Iran is a focus of the crude oil market. The increase in US natural gas and middle - distillates due to the cold wave has temporarily stopped, and coal prices are likely to be dragged down by weakening demand [1]. - The chemical industry showed high volatility on Tuesday. Styrene and polyolefins generally remained strong, while polyester chain varieties declined significantly. The current inventory build - up in the chemical industry chain is a seasonal one, and investors should view the chemical industry with a fluctuating mindset [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm [1][5]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about the Iranian situation, the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield, and the US cold wave have pushed up supply concerns. Although the API data showed a decrease in US crude and gasoline inventories last week, the high inventory of US petroleum products indicated by EIA data is still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The current crude oil market supply is still in surplus, and the short - term rhythm is dominated by the Iranian situation [5]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia may potentially disrupt supply expectations frequently, and the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield also provides short - term support [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices fluctuate following crude oil [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the US is cooperating with Venezuela to increase its oil production, which will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply and a significant negative impact on asphalt. The repeated US - Iran situation provides cost - side support for asphalt futures prices. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in the over - valued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Part of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The US welcomes Iran to negotiate, causing part of the fuel - oil geopolitical premium to decline. In the long - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle - East are negative factors [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in natural gas may support low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. - **Main Logic**: The significant increase in US natural gas prices drives the crack spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel - oil power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation makes it follow crude - oil fluctuations [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and PX has reduced positions and declined [13]. - **Main Logic**: The weak trend of international oil prices and the obvious cooling of the chemical - product sector have led to a significant reduction in PX positions and a decline in price. The weak real - world situation makes it difficult to support high prices, and upstream raw materials face short - term correction pressure due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,200 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to remain within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [13]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Suppressed by the weakening of commodities, TA has significantly reduced positions and declined [14]. - **Main Logic**: The cooling of the commodity market sentiment has led to a significant reduction in PTA positions and a decline. There are no significant changes in the supply and demand side, but the downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the seasonal inventory build - up pressure of PTA has increased. The PTA price spread and month - to - month spread are both weak, and the market is worried about the inventory build - up pressure around the Spring Festival. The PTA disk profit has corrected from a high level [14]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 month - to - month spread, and the short - term PTA processing fee may correct to some extent. The industry can choose to hedge to lock in production profits [15]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The game between expectations and reality is intertwined, and pure benzene fluctuates [16]. - **Main Logic**: The recent rise is due to downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene and the supplementary rise in the context of the long - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Pure benzene is in a transition period where the fundamentals may change, and the real - world pressure is still large. Although the supply - demand gap from January to February is still positive, it is expected to achieve a small inventory reduction in March [17]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. High inventory still needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals in the first quarter are improving quarter - on - quarter. It is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical commodities [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by capital behavior and export stories, styrene has risen recently [18]. - **Main Logic**: The recent strong rise of styrene is due to capital behavior under the expectation of the long - cycle bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of the commodity - market sector. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the inventory - build - up expectation in January has turned into inventory reduction. The seasonal inventory - build - up height in February is also expected to decrease [18]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although there is a tendency for profit compression during the seasonal inventory build - up, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Lack of confidence among bulls and no continuous positive factors, ethylene glycol has adjusted and corrected [19]. - **Main Logic**: The poor commodity sentiment has led to a high - level correction in the polyester chain. Bulls in ethylene glycol lack confidence, and the real - world inventory build - up pressure is huge. The supply reduction is slow, and multiple sets of equipment are still in the process of resuming production. Coupled with the accelerating production cuts of downstream polyester factories, the high inventory suppresses the upward price elasticity [20]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment within the range of [3,800 - 4,050] yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the operation within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for EG05 - 09 [20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Cost support has collapsed, and terminal demand has declined [21]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in the prices of upstream polyester raw materials has led to the collapse of cost support, and the price of short - fiber has followed the cost decline. The terminal has gradually entered the shutdown stage, and the subsequent operating rate of spinning mills will also gradually decline. Without new positive factors, the market may weaken and consolidate in the near future [22]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the upstream for consolidation, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following costs, and the support for the lower limit of profit has increased [23]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term poor performance of raw - material prices and the general commodity sentiment have led to a downward shift in the center of the polyester bottle - chip price. The processing fee has slightly retracted, but the supply of some goods is tight, and the short - term downward space of the polyester bottle - chip market is limited [23]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates following raw materials, and the support for the lower limit of the processing fee has increased [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and methanol fluctuates within a range [25]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, methanol fluctuated weakly. The fundamental situation of oversupply in the inland market remains unchanged, and the inventory of ports has returned to the accumulation trend. The coastal market is affected by high port inventories, and the inventory - reduction pressure has further increased. Although the overseas situation is uncertain, the short - term trading may still be mainly based on the overseas situation [26]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The Iranian situation is still undecided, and there is still uncertainty in overseas equipment disruptions. Although the actual support is limited in the fundamentals after excluding overseas factors, the short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on the progress of the overseas situation, and the disk may still have upward space, generally showing a range - bound fluctuation [26]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Orders are accumulating before the Spring Festival, and urea fluctuates and consolidates [27]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, the supply was sufficient as the daily output increased. The demand side showed that agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand was appropriate as the Spring Festival approached, while industrial demand was mainly cautious and small - scale. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, and the spot market had new orders, with the overall urea market still in consolidation and a slightly stronger tendency [27][30]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Currently, it is the stage of order accumulation for urea enterprises before the Spring Festival. The price is not suitable for significant increases for order collection, while there is emotional and demand support at the lower price level. The short - term market will fluctuate slightly, waiting for the completion of enterprise orders before there may be a change [27]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Driven by raw - material and macro factors, the upward space of plastics is limited [32]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the plastics main contract fluctuated. The oil price fluctuated, and the US crude - oil production was affected by the cold wave but the impact was short - term. The high inventory of US petroleum products was still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The increase in natural - gas prices driven by the cold wave had limited sustainability. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods were repaired, but the spot - price increase was limited. The demand for plastics was in the off - season, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support in the future [32]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, and the upward space of PP is limited [33]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PP main contract fluctuated. The oil - price situation was similar to that of LLDPE, and the profits of various PP production methods were repaired, limiting the upward space. The PP downstream was in the off - season, and the trading volume had recently decreased. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence was slightly restored, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The short - term maintenance support still existed, and future attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supply is tight, and PL fluctuates [34]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PL main contract fluctuated. The PDH maintenance expectation still provided support. The overall propylene supply was tight, and enterprise inventories were low, with some offers continuing to rise. The downstream buying was active, and the actual - order auction premium still existed, pushing up the transaction center. The short - term powder - material profit fluctuated slightly, and the downstream demand in the off - season provided limited support [34]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low valuation, PVC fluctuates [39]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the low - price "export - grabbing" of PVC still exists, and the decline in caustic - soda prices has dragged down the comprehensive profit of PVC's chlor - alkali. The upstream production is normal, the downstream start - up will seasonally weaken, the export volume continued to increase last week, the calcium - carbide supply decreased while demand increased, and the caustic - soda supply and demand were weak, with the PVC dynamic cost rising [39]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. In the short term, the "export - grabbing" and low - valuation of PVC support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the market will fluctuate [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic - soda positions should be closed at low prices [40]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the weak situation of caustic soda continues, the inventory is still accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, the Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, the new alumina production capacity in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will marginally boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum start - up is weakening, the upstream production has little change, and the short - term liquid - chlorine price is stable but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, with the dynamic cost of Shandong caustic soda rising [40]. - **Outlook**: Weak fluctuation. Before the Spring Festival, upstream enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the caustic - soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid - chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, caustic - soda short positions should be closed at low prices [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest basis values, changes, and the quantity of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided for this part in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on January 27, 2026, was 2,499.53, a decrease of 0.14%. The commodity 20 - index was 2,875.98, a decrease of 0.12%, and the industrial - product index was 2,357.14, a decrease of 0.54% [286]. - The energy index on January 27, 2026, was 1,138.61, with a daily decline of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 2.69%, a 1 - month increase of 3.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.79% [288].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. With both supply and demand decreasing, combined with the upward price transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. There is short-term potential for demand growth, which will boost prices. The upward price limit depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward limit is restricted by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may stimulate short-term polysilicon exports, but it may also deplete medium- and long-term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the hope for coordinated price support was dashed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with downstream production capacity accelerating to clear. In the short term, attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the medium to long term, focus on the recovery of demand and inventory clearance progress [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,845 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton (1.61%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 235,167 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 18, 2026, was 11,283 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon production cuts continued, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon maintained a staggered peak emission reduction policy and continued self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable to slightly weak. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum to the demand side [1]. Supply - On the same day, a major factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts. The planned production in January is expected to decline significantly, which will positively impact the industrial silicon price. If the production cuts are effective, the supply of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and the inventory will shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upward, opening at 50,200 yuan/ton and closing at 50,505 yuan/ton, a 0.63% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 44,571 lots (46,220 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 12,235 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW, a - 5.53% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly production was 21,500 tons, a - 9.66% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer production was 10.83GW, a 2.95% change from the previous period [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [6]. - Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the minimum opening volume of the polysilicon futures 2701 contract, changing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 lot to 10 lots. The reduction of speculative funds makes the market fluctuations more in line with the supply - demand fundamentals, stabilizes the hedging effect, and strengthens the influence of industrial customers on prices [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to maintain a weak oscillation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week (1.5 - 1.11), the spot price of live pigs showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 23.2 yuan/kg (last week: 21.75 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.98 yuan/kg (last week: 12.45 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1556 yuan/head (last week: 1546 yuan/head). The supply was tight due to slow resumption of group slaughter and strong reluctance of retail farmers to sell, while the demand side had negative feedback as downstream entered the loss stage after New Year's Day. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.38KG (last week: 124.19KG), a 0.15% MoM increase [1]. - The futures price of live pigs oscillated. The highest price of the LH2603 contract this week was 11925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11610 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11770 yuan/ton (last week: 11795 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 1030 yuan/ton (last week: 655 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. The overall slaughter progress in December was fast, leading to a shortage of pigs in the social group after the Winter Solstice, which drove up the reluctance to sell. Coupled with the entry of secondary fattening, the spot price rose sharply. After the New Year's Day holiday, the negative feedback from the downstream was obvious, and the spot price accelerated its decline. After the holiday, due to the reduction in enterprise slaughter and the reluctance to sell in the social aspect, inventory accumulation occurred again. From the supply perspective, according to the piglet data, the supply will enter a continuous incremental stage until March 2026. There have been multiple rounds of inventory - accumulation sentiment. In October, secondary fattening intervened, the overall supply progress in November was slow, and the weight did not decline significantly in December, so the supply pressure was not effectively relieved. From the demand perspective, the low price in October stimulated demand and increased the enthusiasm for warehousing, and secondary fattening continued to enter the market, which exceeded market expectations but also pre - empted the speculative demand increment for re - inventory accumulation. After the temperature drop in December, the demand for curing and regular demand increased, and the slaughter volume continued to rise. In general, the group continued to accumulate inventory in early January, the weight - reduction plan was postponed, and the feed data increased again, indicating that the social aspect was also under pressure. In mid - January, the demand will enter a vacuum period, and it is expected to be under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11770 yuan/ton on January 9th. In early January, enterprises reduced the slaughter volume, the weight increased, the social aspect was forced to accumulate inventory, the feed data increased again, the downstream losses were obvious, the negative feedback suppressed the slaughter volume, and inventory accumulation was confirmed. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The negative expectations will continue to suppress the near - term contracts. In October, the losses of piglets stimulated the elimination of productive sows, and the continuous rise in piglet prices drove the repair of the far - end price center. The far - end has entered the stage of expected trading, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - This week, the basis was 1030 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 445 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Supply - This week's average weight was 124.38KG (last week: 124.19KG). In November, the pork output was 5.46 million tons, a 2.6% MoM decrease; the pork import was 60,500 tons, a 14.16% MoM decrease [13]. 3. Price - No specific summarized price information other than those mentioned above 4. Demand - No specific summarized demand information other than those mentioned above

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions, with a significant increase in overall inventory. The price is currently in high - level oscillation, but there is a downward risk once the negotiation results are out [3]. - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both rising, and the inventory continues to increase. Coke is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation in the short term, and the supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose [5][6]. - The Indonesian reduction in coal supply has led to a steady increase in port coal prices. The thermal coal price is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the long - term supply pattern remains loose [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market rose and then fell yesterday. The spot market was weak, with a national building material turnover of 83,800 tons. This week, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated, while consumption declined; hot - rolled coil production increased but inventory decreased, and consumption also dropped [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are currently no contradictions in the steel supply - demand fundamentals. Supply has recovered month - on - month, consumption has declined, and inventory shows seasonal accumulation. The futures market reflects long - term expectations, while the spot market is relatively rational. The cost is generally stable, and enterprises maintain certain profits. Future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were weaker, and the Platts Index was slightly adjusted downwards. This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, port inventory increased significantly, steel mills replenished inventory slightly, and the amount of stranded cargoes in ports increased [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, with a large increase in overall inventory and a slight improvement in downstream replenishment willingness. Due to the locked - in liquidity of some port supplies and uncertainties in long - term actual supply, the market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices. Once the negotiation results are out, the supply - demand contradiction will be exposed, and the price will face a downward risk. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain high - level oscillation with future steel mill resumption and replenishment [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. The coke market was stable, and the expectation of further price reduction weakened significantly. The sentiment in the coking coal market improved, and some terminal procurement plans were advanced. The price of some Mongolian 5 coking coal spot has risen to 1,010 - 1,035 yuan/ton. This week, coking coal supply recovered, inventory continued to increase, and demand improved due to the resumption of hot metal production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the New Year's Day, with the resumption of blast furnaces and the winter storage replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival, the demand for coke is expected to improve. In the short term, coke will maintain an oscillatory operation benefiting from the rise in raw coal prices. The supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose. Although the rigid demand for coking coal has improved with the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the supply of coking coal has recovered relatively quickly, and the inventory accumulation trend has not been alleviated. The change in production - capacity increase in the origin needs further verification [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices accelerated to rise. Chemical customers had good rigid demand, high - calorie coal had good sales, but power plant demand was weak, and traders were cautious in procurement. In ports, the inventory of northern ports decreased rapidly recently, and due to the inverted shipping cost, upstream suppliers were less willing to sell at low prices. Indonesia reduced its coal production quota for 2026 and will retroactively collect this year's tariffs [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The daily consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the supply in the production area is gradually recovering. The coal price is oscillating strongly. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - thermal coal [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - **Alumina**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Sugar**: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Apples**: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **PVC**: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - **Glass**: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - **Crude Oil**: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Soda Ash**: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]