Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The PX and PTA markets are under pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory build - up, and are expected to continue their weak trend. The polyester industry chain is in a weak supply - demand pattern and may maintain a weak and volatile short - term performance [2][5]. - Future prices of PX and PTA may continue to face downward pressure, with supply - side开工率 remaining stable or high, cost support weakening due to falling crude oil prices, demand being dragged down by the possible weakening of polyester demand, and inventory likely to accumulate [37]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 8, the PX main contract closed at 6726.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 9.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4684.0 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.41 US dollars/barrel, and the WTI was 63.82 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 486.27 million meters [3]. - In terms of supply, the short - term supply pressure of PX and PTA has increased marginally. The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant collapse in PX cost support. Although the PX plant maintenance plan has not been implemented, PX enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain a high operating rate. For PTA, the restart plan of plants in August has increased, and the operating rate may remain high, with an increasing expectation of short - term supply relaxation [3]. - In terms of demand, polyester and terminal demand show seasonal weakness. The average transaction volume of the Light Textile City in the past 15 days is 486.27 million meters, and the recent transaction volume has further declined to 479 million meters, indicating that terminal textile orders have not improved substantially. The polyester operating rate may fluctuate narrowly between 84% - 86% and is difficult to drive PTA demand beyond expectations [4]. - In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory has the risk of passive accumulation. The PTA supply - demand balance has changed from tight to loose in August, and the destocking cycle may end. If demand remains weak and new PTA plants are put into production as expected, social inventory may return to the inventory build - up channel, and the spot basis will continue to be at a discount, suppressing the elasticity of futures prices [4]. Polyester - On August 8, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6382.0 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 108.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream raw material supply is abundant or the cost support is weakening. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory days of polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased and are higher than the five - year average, and the overall inventory pressure is large. In the short term, the polyester industry chain may maintain a weak and volatile operation [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.44% to 6.726 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 25.72% to 64,578 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.12% to 91,057 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port remained unchanged at 839.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.10% to 806 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 142.86% to 9 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.09% to 4,684 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16.74% to 347,274 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.40% to 700,930 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port decreased by 0.96% to 622 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 200.00% to 6 yuan/ton [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.16% to 6,382 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4.03% to 109,840 lots, and the open interest increased by 2.40% to 178,205 lots. The mainstream spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,490 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 10.20% to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - Other prices: The Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.14% to 66.32 US dollars/barrel, the US crude oil main contract decreased by 0.74% to 63.35 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 0.09% to 570.5 US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Waller became a hot candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Federal Reserve Chairman, and Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Federal Reserve's view on employment goals. The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, and the gold reserve at the end of July was 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [8]. - On August 7, Trump said that the new Federal Reserve Board member might be temporary and would announce the appointment within 2 - 3 days, and also said that if other countries imported Russian crude oil, they might be imposed a 25% tariff. Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year were reasonable [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 8, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 394.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 86.0 million meters [9]. 4. Appendix: Big Model Reasoning Process - Analyze from the supply, demand, and inventory perspectives. On the supply side, the operating rates of PX and PTA may remain stable or high, and the falling crude oil prices lead to weakened cost support. On the demand side, the slightly decreased transaction volume of the Light Textile City may indicate weakening polyester demand, which in turn drags down PTA demand. On the inventory side, inventory may accumulate due to the supply - demand relationship [35][36][37].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it will maintain a stockpiling state but the absolute inventory level is not high. The current low processing fee for spot has lasted for some time. With limited inventory pressure on filament and continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade polyester at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term stockpiling pressure is not high, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The situation is good and the profit is not low. In the long term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rate, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side. It should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellites [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the futures market is still in a low range, attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Summary by Category PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of crude oil fluctuated between 69.7 - 73.2, the price of PX CFR changed from 851 to 846, and the PTA processing margin decreased from 272.0 to 242.0 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton plant reduced its operation rate to 80% - 90%, and Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of proximal TA existing plants decreased significantly while new plants started production. The polyester operation rate declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weakly maintained, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation rate of PX increased slightly, there were some unexpected situations overseas, the PXN weakened significantly, the profitability of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the MEG outer - market price decreased from 528 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 684 to 506 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Tongliao stopped production; the 400,000 - ton plant of Xinjiang Guanghui restarted; the 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Zhonghuaxue restarted [4]. - **Market Situation**: Proximal domestic coal - based plants had some maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. Affected by the weather during the week, both port arrivals and pick - ups decreased significantly, and the port inventory still decreased slightly. The downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from the high level [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6675 to 6600, and the short - fiber profit increased from 47 to 21 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line plant of Xianglu was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material stocking decreased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1800 to 1720, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14665 to 13910 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the absolute level was not high, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 751 to 764, and the styrene domestic profit decreased from - 147 to - 218 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of PS (East China transparent benzene) and ABS (0215A) remained stable at 7830 and 10000 respectively, and the Asian price difference (pure benzene - naphtha) decreased from 160 to 138 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, and basis weakens. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak. The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - For styrene, the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, and the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of PTA inner - market spot changed from 4775 to 4800, and the PTA processing difference changed from - 207 to - 46. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(-8) [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee decreases again. PX domestic start - up decreases slightly, overseas load is stable, and PXN strengthens [3]. - **Outlook**: TA remains in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the MEG outer - market price changed from 525 to 528, and the MEG coal - to - profit changed from 687 to 684. The basis is around 09(+52) [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Downstream stocking levels rise, basis remains the same, and the benefit - comparison further expands [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber changed from 6640 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit changed from 37 to 47 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak, with stable start - up of polyester yarn, slightly increased raw - material stocking, and accumulated finished - product inventory [3]. - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. There is no obvious upward driver, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot changed from 1800 to 1800, and the price of Shanghai full - latex changed from 14660 to 14665 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [3]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of styrene (CFR China) changed from 920 to 908, and the domestic profit of styrene was 24 on July 25 and 28. The profit of EPS increased from 150 to 285 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials and downstream products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, while the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of bearish factor realization. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred, but the unilateral direction is hard to determine due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US [2] - **Plastic (PE)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [11] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are performing well. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which could be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH plant maintenance [11] - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is -450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [13] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, while the江苏现货 price increased by 12, and the华南现货 price rose by 25. The盘面MTO profit decreased by 61 [2] - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory is accumulating, and it's in a bearish factor realization phase. Iran has reduced its开工 rate, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [2] Plastic (PE) - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the东北亚乙烯 price remained unchanged, the华北LL price increased by 60, and the主力期货 price rose by 78 [11] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around -400, and 6 - month maintenance has decreased with an increase in domestic linear production [11] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the山东丙烯 price remained stable, the华东PP price increased by 10, and the主力期货 price rose by 77. The仓单 increased by 2169 [11] - **Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June [11] PVC - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the西北电石 and山东烧碱 prices remained unchanged, the电石法 - 华东 price increased by 20, and the基差 (高端交割品) decreased by 10 [12][13] - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The江苏现货 price increased by 5 to 2390, the华南现货 price decreased by 10 to 2395, and the鲁南折盘面 price decreased by 5 to 2455. The西南折盘面 price decreased by 55 to 2475, while the河北折盘面 and西北折盘面 prices remained unchanged at 2435 and 2575 respectively. The CFR中国 and CFR东南亚 prices remained at 275 and 333 respectively. The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 increased by 10 to -5, and the盘面MTO利润 decreased by 22 to -1243 [2] Core View - High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a period of bearish factors being realized. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the single - side direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [3] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the东北亚乙烯 price remained at 820. The华北LL price remained unchanged at 7190, the华东LL price decreased by 10 to 7290, and the华东LD and华东HD prices remained unchanged at 9450 and 7850 respectively. The LL美金 and LL美湾 prices remained at 850 and 939 respectively. The进口利润 remained at - 145, the主力期货 price decreased by 63 to 7221, the基差 increased by 10 to - 80, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 remained at 5956 [8] Core View - For polyethylene, the two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. The upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. The downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New devices in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on the commissioning of new devices [8] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6320, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 740. The华东PP price decreased by 20 to 7010, the华北PP price decreased by 18 to 7070, and the山东粉料 price decreased by 70 to 6830. The华东共聚 price decreased by 14 to 7296. The PP美金 and PP美湾 prices remained at 890 and 1010 respectively. The出口利润 remained at 0, the主力期货 price decreased by 52 to 7015, the基差 increased by 10 to - 20, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 decreased by 200 to 10317 [8] Core View - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and markets in Europe and the US are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the西北电石 price remained at 2250, the山东烧碱 price increased by 20 to 857. The电石法 - 华东 price remained at 4900, the乙烯法 - 华东 price remained at 5500, the电石法 - 华南 price remained at 5450, and the电石法 - 西北 price increased by 100 to 4550. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700, the出口利润 remained at 387, the西北综合利润 remained at 356, the华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 20 to - 80 [12][13] Core View - The basis maintains at 09 - 150, and the factory - delivery basis is - 450. Downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - and upstream has slowed down. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. Pay attention to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. Near - term export orders have decreased slightly. Coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of兰炭 is stable, and the profit of电石 is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda export is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap - refined substitution, but there is strong support below the price [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc short - allocation idea remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio contraction [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [9]. - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro - influences [11]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the top enterprises continue to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, supply is expected to be in surplus next week, and the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the copper price showed a reverse - V trend. Macro - data was mixed, and the domestic market started to accumulate inventory in the off - season. The refined - scrap price difference widened, and a moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1]. Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. The short - allocation strategy remains unchanged [4]. Nickel - Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Pay attention to the price - ratio contraction opportunity [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to be weak and volatile [9]. Lead - The lead price rose this week. Supply - side issues include weak scrap production and tight waste batteries. Demand - side has high battery inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a certain range next week [11]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by mine issues, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Top enterprises are cutting production, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The price rose this week due to policy - driven sentiment. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term [17].

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V-shaped trend. The ADP and non-farm payroll data diverged, causing the overall interest rate cut expectation to fluctuate. Trump's "Great Beauty" Act was implemented, and short-term broad fiscal policies may have a certain stimulating effect [1]. - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start-up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline during the off-season from July to August, and overall copper consumption by downstream industries has been somewhat suppressed [1]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened this week, weakening the substitution effect. It is expected that there will be a moderate inventory increase from July to August [1]. - With the S232 investigation pending, there is still strong support below the copper price. A significant drop would require a macro black swan event, which is currently unlikely. During the off-season in the third quarter, the copper price is expected to have some adjustment room due to inventory accumulation and the decline in the refined-scrap substitution effect [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1]. - In terms of inventory, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short-term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low-inventory situation, attention should be paid to inter-month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [1]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and the imported TC increased slightly. Some smelters are undergoing maintenance in July, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - On the demand side, domestic demand has weakened seasonally. The spot premium in North China has turned to a discount, and those in East and South China have basically leveled off. Overseas, demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face certain production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4]. - Domestically, social inventory has increased oscillatingly. Due to more factory pick-ups at the current price, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slightly slower than expected. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased oscillatingly since May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4]. - The strategy remains to short zinc and sell on rallies. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. Group 4: Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year-on-year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of demand for scrap batteries. Although the low profit has improved this week, the operating rate remains low. The willingness of recyclers to sell at a high price has weakened [7]. - From April to June, the operation rate of concentrate mines increased, but the supply of domestic and foreign concentrates has tightened, and the TC is in a mess [7]. - On the demand side, battery inventory is high. This week, the battery operating rate rebounded, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The refined-scrap spread is -50, the willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has increased, but the reception is poor. There is speculation about cancelled LME warehouse receipts [7]. - From April to July, overall consumption during the off-season is weak, and orders only meet the rigid demand. This week's price increase is due to speculation about the improvement in battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts, but in reality, downstream buyers only replenish their inventories for rigid demand at high prices [7]. - The profit of recycled lead has improved, but the operating rate has not increased. The willingness of scrap battery owners to sell at a high price is strong, and the price support behavior is weaker than in the previous upward cycle. The willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has improved, but the reception is poor. The refined-scrap spread is -50, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 40, mainly maintaining long-term orders [7]. - It is expected that lead will oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week. If the macro situation affects the lead price to remain above 17,200, it may trigger the risk of a price support cycle. In July, primary lead supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is weak [7]. Group 5: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the short-term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, still needs negotiation. The processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province, China, have reduced production, and those in Yunnan Province are still struggling to maintain production. In June, the output of tin ingots decreased by more than 1 kt month-on-month [9]. - Overseas, except for Wa State, supply disruptions have basically subsided. The import volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May exceeded expectations, mainly due to traders' inventories [9]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rates of the terminal electronics and photovoltaic industries are expected to decline significantly. Domestic inventory has increased oscillatingly. Overseas consumption rush continues, but the LME inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [9]. - On the spot side, the supply of small-brand tin ingots remains tight. Most of the exchange inventory is high-priced Yunzi-brand tin ingots, and downstream buyers have no strong willingness to pick them up [9]. - In the short term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline. It is expected that supply and demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. June and July may be the key stages to verify whether the tightness of tin ore will be transmitted to the tightness of tin ingots, and the bottom has strong support [9]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after the maintenance period [9]. Group 6: Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to reduce production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the significant production reduction of leading enterprises, the production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous expectation of a significant increase, and the supply-demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [13]. - If Hesheng continues to maintain the production reduction, the spot price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Previously, against the background of the futures price hitting a new low, the basis strengthened rapidly, stimulating the long-suppressed speculative and replenishment sentiments of downstream industries. The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts and non-standard products has been significant, and the spot price has been strong. The unexpected production reduction of leading enterprises has a significant marginal impact on the supply-demand balance, and there is a resumption of production in the downstream polysilicon industry [13]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased due to the promotion of the "anti-involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 contract price. The price difference between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream buyers settle at a later point in time, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [13]. - The high price has stimulated the resumption of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes continue to increase production. However, some factories have maintenance plans, and the hedging profit of externally purchased projects is abundant and production is ongoing [13]. - Downstream buyers are highly cautious and only maintain a safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver goods to the warehouse has improved, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased [13]. - In the medium and long term, there are many expansion projects for ore and lithium salt production capacities. If the operating rates of leading mining and smelting integrated enterprises do not decrease significantly, the lithium carbonate price will still fluctuate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and the reduction in new energy vehicle consumer loans has not improved demand as expected [13]. - The lithium ore price has rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious and replenish their inventories only for rigid demand. At the current price rebound, the profit of externally purchased smelters has improved, and they have resumed production. The profit of self-owned mines has increased, and the market clearance pace may be delayed [13]. - In the future, the supply elasticity is high. Large factories in Sichuan and previously maintained and technically improved enterprises are resuming production. Attention should be paid to the resumption time of the Jiuxiaowo project of CATL. Demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply will continue to exceed demand next week, leading to inventory accumulation, which will put upward pressure on the price. The fundamental oversupply situation has not been significantly reversed. However, the "anti-involution" competition policy may boost sentiment, and risks need to be guarded against [13]. Group 8: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [15]. - On the inventory side, overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been abolished, concerns about supply disruptions in the ore market have eased. The short-term real fundamentals are average, and opportunities for narrowing the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [15]. Group 9: Stainless Steel - From the supply side, some steel mills have been forced to reduce production since late May. On the demand side, demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [17]. - In terms of inventory, inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been de-stocked. The overall fundamentals remain weak. After the demand fades, the pressure on the spot market increases, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is occurring, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene price is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase slightly in June. The downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices undergo more maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices due to seasonal factors. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in June. The near - term export orders are acceptable. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and production starts [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2520 to 2437, the South China spot price decreased from 2480 to 2448. The import profit decreased from 125 to 58, and the main contract basis decreased from 90 to 25. The MTO profit on the futures market decreased from - 1208 to - 1219 [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The daily changes on July 7 compared to the previous period were 0 for power coal futures, - 18 for Jiangsu spot, - 17 for South China spot, - 10 for Lunan converted to futures price, 0 for Southwest converted to futures price, 0 for Hebei converted to futures price, - 25 for Northwest converted to futures price, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for main contract basis, and 0 for MTO profit on the futures market [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price fluctuated between 7150 - 7200 and then dropped to 7175 on July 7. The two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71, and the warehouse receipts remained at 5831 on July 4 and 7 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were 0 for Northeast Asian ethylene, - 25 for North China LL, - 50 for East China LL, - 25 for East China LD, 0 for East China HD, 0 for LL in US dollars, 0 for LL in US Gulf, 0 for import profit, - 35 for the main futures contract, 30 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and 0 for warehouse receipts [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6630 to 6420, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7060 to 7030, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71. The warehouse receipts decreased from 7404 to 7232 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 130 for Shandong propylene, 0 for Northeast Asian propylene, - 40 for East China PP, - 30 for North China PP, - 50 for Shandong powder, - 10 for East China copolymer, 0 for PP in US dollars, 0 for PP in US Gulf, 0 for export profit, - 21 for the main futures contract, 0 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and - 60 for warehouse receipts [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2250, the Shandong caustic soda price increased from 802 to 817. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China fluctuated between 4770 - 4850 and then dropped to 4830 on July 7. The import price in US dollars (CFR China) remained at 700, and the export profit remained at 465 from July 3 - 7 [11][12]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 50 for Northwest calcium carbide, 15 for Shandong caustic soda, - 20 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, 0 for ethylene - based PVC in East China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in South China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in the North, 0 for import price in US dollars (CFR China), 0 for export profit, 0 for Northwest comprehensive profit, 0 for North China comprehensive profit, and 0 for the basis (high - end delivery product) [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Zinc ore supply remains at a high level, and TC continues to rise. The expectation of zinc ingot production increase is high. However, some zinc smelters are shifting to the production of zinc alloy ingots, and part of the zinc ingots are converted into in-transit inventory in the form of direct delivery to downstream, which cannot be well reflected in the accumulation of social inventory. Recently, the commodity atmosphere is favorable, and the long sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is strong. The rapid upward movement of the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure also boosts the zinc price [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In June, the lead price continued to rise. The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 3.4% at 17,205 yuan/ton, with the total open interest in unilateral trading decreasing by 0.83 thousand lots. The LME Lead 3M contract closed up 3.79% at $2,041.5/ton. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 110 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -25 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 50 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: This week, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons. The operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including those on US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 32.5 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.2% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to May, the total zinc ore output was 141.12 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.5%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 49.15 million dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 85.3% and a month - on - month change of -0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 220.38 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 52.7% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 54.62 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 25.7% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 240.29 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6%. As of the end of June, the port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons [27]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the end of June, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton [29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In May 2025, the zinc ingot output was 54.94 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.1%. From January to May, the total zinc ingot output was 265.49 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.7%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 2.53 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -45.3% and a month - on - month change of -10.4%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 15.80 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -20.5%. In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 57.47 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -1.3% and a month - on - month change of -1.5%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 281.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: As of the end of June, the operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In May 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 58.28 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of -8.3%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 279.75 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.2% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a shortage of -0.81 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.53 million tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In March 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.98 million tons. From January to March, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 6.81 million tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai zinc increased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc rose, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [70].