宏观风格行业轮动

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中银量化多策略行业轮动周报–20250904-20250908
Bank of China Securities· 2025-09-08 01:41
Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant positions in non-ferrous metals (15.3%), non-bank financials (12.9%), and comprehensive sectors (7.3%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -3.0%, while the average return over the past month was 3.1% [3][10] - The report identifies the top-performing industries for the week as electric equipment and new energy (2.4%), food and beverage (0.8%), and pharmaceuticals (0.5%), while the worst performers were defense and military (-11.9%), computers (-9.8%), and electronics (-9.7%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The report provides a detailed performance review of CITIC primary industries, indicating that the average weekly return was -3.0% and the average monthly return was 3.1% [10] - The top three industries by weekly performance were electric equipment and new energy (2.4%), food and beverage (0.8%), and pharmaceuticals (0.5%) [11] - The bottom three industries were defense and military (-11.9%), computers (-9.8%), and electronics (-9.7%) [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [14][15] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, media, computers, and defense and military, all exceeding the 95th percentile in PB valuation [15][16] Strategy Performance - The report outlines the performance of various strategies, with the composite strategy yielding a cumulative return of 20.2% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry benchmark by 2.3% [3] - The highest excess return strategy was the industry profitability tracking strategy (S1), with an excess return of 5.1% compared to the benchmark [3] - The report indicates a shift in strategy allocations, increasing positions in upstream cyclical and pharmaceutical sectors while reducing exposure to TMT, consumer, and midstream cyclical sectors [3] Current Industry Rankings - The report ranks industries based on profitability expectations, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and agriculture being the top three [18] - The implied sentiment momentum strategy ranks communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics as the top three industries based on market sentiment indicators [22] - The macroeconomic style rotation strategy identifies comprehensive finance, computers, communication, defense and military, electronics, and media as the top six industries based on macroeconomic indicators [25]