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“现在小盘股也不便宜了”
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-29 12:30
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that small-cap stocks are experiencing a significant rebound, driven by technology stocks, but there are concerns about their valuation and sustainability of this performance [1][3][5] - In the third quarter of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index rising over 10%, compared to the S&P 500's approximately 7% increase [3][5] - Historically, small-cap stocks perform best when the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy and long-term interest rates decline, which aligns with the current market conditions [3][5] Group 2 - The recent performance of small-cap stocks contrasts sharply with their underperformance in the first half of 2025, where they fell more than the overall market [5][7] - Notable small-cap gainers include semiconductor companies like Astera and Credo, which saw increases of over 100% and 60% respectively in the third quarter [7][12] - Concerns arise as the rebound in small-cap stocks is primarily driven by a few growth and technology stocks, leading to questions about their overall value proposition [14][15] Group 3 - The forward P/E ratio for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has reached 24.64, indicating that small-cap stocks may no longer offer the value they once did [14][15] - Growth stocks within the Russell 2000 are facing even higher valuation risks, with a forward P/E ratio of 36.38, suggesting a bubble-like situation [15] - Some stocks in the Russell 2000, such as Oklo, have seen significant price increases without generating any revenue, raising further concerns about valuation sustainability [15][17]