Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown starting October 1, 2025, has led to the suspension of various key economic data releases, creating uncertainty in the market as both parties remain divided on welfare spending issues [3] - Historical instances of government shutdowns have not significantly impacted U.S. stock market performance, with examples from 2013 and 2018 showing resilience in major indices despite shutdowns [3] Economic Data Summary - The absence of critical economic indicators like unemployment rates has forced investors to rely on private data sources, leading to a "data fog" for the Federal Reserve in determining policy direction [4] - The non-farm payroll data for September, released after a two-month hiatus, showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, above the anticipated 4.3% [4][7] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.3%, indicating a mixed labor market outlook [4][7] Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight rebound since May, with core CPI remaining in a moderate fluctuation phase, suggesting that inflation data may still be stabilizing at a low level [9] - The inflation data for October is expected to be released on December 5, with November's data scheduled for December 18 [12] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve's officials have shifted their stance from dovish to hawkish and back again, with the probability of a rate cut fluctuating significantly, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [12] - Following the release of the September non-farm payroll data, several Fed officials expressed caution regarding the labor market's deterioration, suggesting that the potential for a rate cut in December remains uncertain [13] - The current decision-making tendencies of the Federal Reserve officials show a split, with some advocating for a pause in rate cuts while others support a reduction [15]