Core Viewpoint - The automotive dealer inventory coefficient in November 2025 reached 1.57, indicating a significant increase both month-on-month (34.2%) and year-on-year (41.4%), suggesting that inventory levels are above the warning line and higher than the reasonable range [2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - In November, the passenger car market showed a low-to-high trend, but the expected year-end "tail effect" did not significantly materialize. Early in the month, the market was sluggish due to preemptive consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October," tightening subsidy policies, and delays in the new energy vehicle tax exemption plan, leading over 80% of dealers to hold a pessimistic outlook for November [5]. - By the end of November, the estimated total inventory of automotive dealers was approximately 3.5 million vehicles, based on a terminal sales volume of 2.225 million vehicles [5]. Group 2: Brand-Specific Inventory Coefficients - The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands was 1.58, up 37.4% month-on-month. For joint venture brands, the coefficient was 1.70, increasing by 41.7%, while for domestic brands, it was 1.51, rising by 30.2% [6][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - December is expected to see a mild recovery in terminal consumption, driven by increased promotions from manufacturers and dealers aiming to meet annual targets, along with some pre-holiday purchasing demand being released. However, the overall market is not expected to exhibit a significant tail effect due to the exhaustion of subsidy funds in many regions and weak demand for fuel vehicle replacements [10]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of "trade-in and scrapping policies" to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [10].

2025年3月31日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA（Vehicle Inventory Alert Index）显示，2025年3月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.6%，同比下降3.7个百分点，环比 下降2.3个百分点。尽管库存预警指数仍位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业处在不景气区间，但景气状况有所好 转。 3月份，乘用车市场逐步回暖，得益于政府"两新"政策及促消费激励措施的推动，叠加品牌厂商新品投放 和促销力度的加大，春季车展启动等多重利好叠加有效驱动了消费者需求的快速释放。近期，多个合资品牌推 出"一口价"模式，包括部分车型一口价、限时一口价以及焕新一口价等多种类型，带动了集客和成交。本次调 查反馈显示，该模式虽能短期刺激客流量转化，形成"薄利多销"的集客效应，但一口价是否可以长期存在，效 果如何，还有待观察。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 1804 字，阅读全文约需 6 分钟 作为季度末，3月经销商进车任务量增加，库存压力加大。当前价格战有所缓解，厂商纷纷推出加配不加 价，增加质保期，以及金融保险优惠等措施，对销量增长有一定拉动。从经销商反馈数据来看 ...