订阅美联储动态 +订阅 美联储主席鲍威尔：目前经济形势存在高度不确定性，希望以实际数据为依据，而不是过于自信地做出 预测。不希望提供过多的前瞻指引。 ...

印尼央行行长：未来由于关税谈判、中东局势紧张，形势仍将充满不确定性，需要保持警惕。 ...

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：自上周四伊朗-以色列冲突发生以来，形势变得更加不确定。 ...

出口回落的 3 个因素与关税微观影响的 4 条线索 20250610 摘要 美国关税对中国出口产生滞后影响，尤其对美出口大幅下降约 35%，但 中美会谈后影响减弱，机电产品单价有所改善，盈利有望修复。 中国集成电路出口逆势高增，表现优于越南、韩国等电子贸易经济体， 反映电子链条强劲的抢出口需求，需关注后续节奏扰动。 中国对美国消费品出口敏感度较高，中间品因前期经验和政策扶持具备 韧性。新优势产业如锂电池、新能源车对美出口逆势上涨。 5 月中国商品结构变化受机电品类、跨境电商品类及仿制鞋包影响，跨 境电商受需求走弱影响，新优势产业如船舶、集成电路及汽车链条外需 走强。 中国集成电路及电子产品在全球市场表现出逆势高增长，反映全球技术 革命驱动下电子业投资及贸易冲击较低，需关注未来可能出现的节奏扰 动。 5 月中国进口受能源及矿产相关资本品需求走弱拖累，东盟、非洲等经 济体下行明显，机电品类，特别是中国台湾的集成电路需求是主要支撑。 关税缓和信号和全球制造业 PMI 企稳缓解外需收缩压力，中美经贸会谈 推进有望进一步缓解关税紧张局势，但贸易形势仍具不确定性。 Q&A 5 月份中国进出口数据表现如何？有哪些主要因素影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in geopolitical risks has led to a surge in gold prices, raising questions about the sustainability of the bullish trend in gold [2][3]. Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Prices - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is closely linked to geopolitical risks. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains uncertain, while tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continue to escalate. These factors are driving investor demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [3]. Favorable Factors for Gold Bullish Trend - **Global Economic Uncertainty**: Signs of slowing global economic growth are becoming more apparent, with major economies facing recession risks. Poor economic data from the U.S. has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - **Expectations of Monetary Policy Easing**: The Federal Reserve has raised inflation expectations while lowering growth forecasts, hinting at potential interest rate cuts. This easing monetary policy could lead to currency depreciation, further supporting gold prices [5]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, are increasing their gold reserves, which boosts physical demand and strengthens gold's position in the international monetary system [6]. Challenges Facing Gold Bulls - **Potential Easing of Geopolitical Risks**: If geopolitical tensions ease through negotiations, investor demand for gold may decline, leading to price corrections. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine talks illustrate this potential shift [7]. - **Uncertainty in Dollar Performance**: The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices is typically negative. A strengthening dollar, driven by positive U.S. economic data or hawkish Fed signals, could pressure gold prices [9]. - **Market Sentiment Volatility**: Investor sentiment significantly impacts gold prices. Changes in market dynamics or reduced concerns over geopolitical risks could weaken bullish sentiment in the gold market [10]. Technical Analysis Outlook - Recent price movements have seen gold break through key resistance levels, suggesting a strengthened bullish outlook. If gold can maintain levels above $3,435 or $3,500, the bullish trend may continue, potentially reaching new highs [11]. Timeframe for Gold Bullish Trend - The bullish trend in gold is expected to persist in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks. However, any signs of easing tensions could lead to a rapid market response. In the medium to long term, factors such as global economic uncertainty, easing monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases are likely to provide solid support for gold prices [12].

英国央行行长贝利：当前的不确定性反映了国际形势。 ...

瑞士联邦委员会：形势进一步的发展仍具不确定性。 ...

然而，黄金价格的剧烈波动背后，有着复杂的原因。最直接的原因是市场避险情绪的变化。此前，由于 中美关税谈判的不确定性以及局地冲突的紧张局势，市场避险情绪高涨，推动了黄金价格的上涨。但随 着谈判取得进展和冲突的缓和，市场避险情绪逐渐消退，黄金价格也随之回落。 （原标题：和讯投顾刘基：黄金价格"过山车" 上车还是逃跑？） 近期黄金价格的走势确实如同过山车般刺激，让不少投资者和消费者措手不及。就在半个月前，黄金价 格一路狂飙，创下历史新高，但随后却突然大幅下跌，让许多购买黄金的投资者和消费者遭受了不小的 损失。然而，就在大家还在为黄金价格的下跌而焦虑时，5月21日，黄金价格又突然反弹，重新冲上了 高位，这种剧烈的波动让市场充满了戏剧性。 今年以来，黄金价格的上涨势头迅猛，吸引了大量投资者和消费者的关注。数据显示，2025年一季度全 球黄金投资需求大幅增长，中国市场的金条和金币需求更是创下了历史第二高的纪录。投资者和消费者 纷纷通过各种渠道抢购黄金，甚至有人不惜贷款购买，这种疯狂的抢购潮也引起了市场的关注。 此外，黄金价格与美元走势密切相关。市场预期美联储可能收紧货币政策，美元有望走强，这也在一定 程度上压制了黄金价格 ...

瑞典央行行长特登：在货币政策更新中，瑞典央行评估了国际形势的发展，尤其是不确定性的上升。 ...