Core Viewpoint - The ethylene glycol market is experiencing price fluctuations, significant losses in profitability, and an increase in operating rates despite overall industry challenges [1] Price and Profitability - Futures main contract prices have decreased from 4279 CNY/ton to 4250 CNY/ton, while spot prices in East China remain stable at 4315 CNY/ton, leading to an expanded basis of 120 CNY/ton [1] - The overall profitability of the industry chain is deeply negative, with naphtha-based, ethylene-based, and methanol-based production showing losses of -115.45 USD/ton, -646.81 CNY/ton, and -1297.07 CNY/ton respectively, and coal-based production maintaining a loss of -258 CNY/ton [1] Operating Rates - Despite the losses, both oil-based and coal-based production capacities have increased, with oil-based operating rates rising significantly by 6.65% to 62.51% and coal-based rates increasing by 4.24% to 52.64%, resulting in a total operating rate increase of 3% to 58.66% [1] Demand and Inventory - Polyester load remains stable at 89.42%, while weaving machine load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at 63.43%, indicating a clear demand for end products [1] - The inventory at major ports in East China has decreased significantly by 5.72% to 563,800 tons, with Zhangjiagang's inventory dropping sharply by 23.85% to 166,000 tons, and weekly arrivals decreasing by 26.42% to 100,800 tons, alleviating some import pressure [1] Supply and Cost Dynamics - The current market conflict centers around collapsing costs and mismatched supply and demand [1] - Although rising crude oil prices have marginally increased naphtha production costs, cash flows across all production routes remain in the negative [1] - The supply increase is attributed to the concentrated restart of oil-based facilities and improved utilization rates of coal-based production, with ethylene production rates also recovering by 3.72% [1] Future Outlook - The ethylene glycol market's supply-demand structure appears relatively favorable, but expectations of weakened demand may limit upward momentum in prices [1] - If the anticipated demand peak in the coming months fails to materialize or if coal chemical production accelerates, prices may test lower levels again [1]