金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 0 8 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：1月8日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天下跌1.05，基差走弱至-48元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5072元/吨，较前一交易日下跌23元/吨。成本端布伦特原油下跌至60美元/桶左右；PTA产能利用率 较上一工作日持平至77.41%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.60天，环比减少0.05天。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA供应端有增量预期，下游聚酯负荷也从高位下调，供需格局相较之前转向宽松；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，终 端需求或将转弱。对上游PX的市场一致看法供需偏紧，预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约：1月8日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌0.21%，基差走弱至-163元/ ...

期货开户入口 2017 + 价差及量能说明 2026年1月8日 自揭 TNK TV 42 在日 6 81 43 n PVC THAT int e k 1 2 ttp:// 好形 世长 10 童仓变化统计 市场力力 从业资格证号:F3020809 投资咨询资格:Z0013442 研究员 田猛 本产品数据与信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性 不做任何保证。我们力求内容客观、公正、观点及内容仅供参考,不构成所 述品种的买卖出价。任何表示过去或历史业绩的信息均不代表未来的业绩, 交易者据此作出的任何投资决策及交易行为与本公司无关。交易者应综合考 虑自身风险承受能力,依据自己的独立思考做出投资决策,自行承担投资决 策风险和交易结果。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 风险揭示:期市有风险 入市需谨慎。本文观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 热点品种 2026年1月8日 价差及量能说明 2026年1月8日 自揭 TNK TV 42 在日 6 81 43 n PVC THAT int e k 1 2 ttp:// 好形 世长 10 童仓变化统计 市场力力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

2019年至2022年，龙宇股份出于做大收入规模或赚取资金收益等目的，通过虚构贸易链条、人为增加业 务环节等方式，开展金属、油品、乙二醇等虚假贸易，导致龙股份2019年、2020年、2021年、2022年年 度报告存在虚假记载。其中，2019年年度报告虚增营业收入224，225.25万元，占当期披露营业收入的 16.61%，虚增利润总额573万元，占当期披露利润总额的60.48%；2020年年度报告虚增营业收入398， 583.26万元，占当期披露营业收入的44.57%，虚增利润总额1，113.69万元，占当期披露利润总额的 10.36%；2021年年度报告虚增营业收入402，421.37万元，占当期披露营业收入的50.46%，虚增利润总 额951.95万元，占当期披露利润总额的7.48%；2022年年度报告虚增营业收入428，816.60万元，占当期 披露营业收入的42.95%，虚增利润总额1，093.32万元，占当期披露利润总额的23.92%。 受损股民可至新浪股民维权平台登记该公司维权：http://wq.finance.sina.com.cn/ 关注@新浪证券、微信关注新浪券商基金、百度搜索新浪股民维 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 供给过剩再度主导市场，油价走弱。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出现权力 真空，中东地缘升温，短期对油价起到支撑；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | 原油 | 消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | 谨慎看空 ★ | 美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量： | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | 成本端油价转跌，液化气走弱。中长期锚定成本端原油，油价向下，液化 | | LPG 谨慎看空 | 气走弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | 短期预期主导行情走势，关注装置变动节奏。停车比例上升至至 12%，LL | | 空头反弹 | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检 | | ★ | 修难度相对较高，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜需求逐步转淡，农膜开工率 | | | 加速下滑，后市仍面临 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：修复动能偏弱 4 | 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 8 日 0 / 48 | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 美豆整体承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价收涨，国内糖价略强 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪回暖，油脂有所上涨 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力仍存 现货整体震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：市场情绪好转，钢价震荡走强 13 | | --- | | 双焦：波动剧烈，多单建议逐步止盈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 金银高位震荡 16 | | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权 ...

能源化工日报 2026-01-08 2026/01/08 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 11.00 元/桶，跌幅 2.57%，报 416.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 34.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.38%，报 2437.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 67.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.29%，报 2860.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 2.24 百万桶至 6.15 百万桶，环比去库 26.73%； 柴油库存累库 0.35 百万桶至 2.27 百万桶，环比累库 18.47%；燃料油库存去库 2.25 百万桶至 8.77 百万桶，环比去库 20.44%；总成品油去库 4.14 百万桶至 17.19 百万桶，环比去库 19.42%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 2026/1/8 甲醇 ...

原油回归过剩逻辑驱动， 化工品后续仍是分化对待。 行情综述： 油：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为原油边缘生 产国，约 1%的产量占比与 50-80 万桶/日的日均出口对全球原油供给 影响不大，并且委内瑞拉也没有 6 月以伊冲突中霍尔木兹海峡作为全 球原油关键航道的地理条件。美对委袭击事件落地后市场对加勒比地 缘担忧的靴子落地，或回归一季度过剩压力带来的下行驱动。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2602 小时图 图 1.1：原油日线图 （二）沥青： 逻辑：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响，目前委 内瑞拉原油出口瘫痪后作为主要国内沥青原料占比超 4 成的委内瑞 拉马瑞重油面临实质断供，若委原油出口迟迟未恢复国内炼厂后续面 临减产停工，原料替代（加拿大重油、中东重油）涉及时间滞后与成 本上移，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向上 驱动。 化工：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响出现重大 逻辑影响，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向 上驱动。沥青可作为当下的重点多头品种。而前期龙头品种 PX-PTA 在下游终端接受度较低带来短期负反 ...

转自：湛江发布 作为一体化的核心，乙烯联合装置为一体化基地内的多套装置提供乙烯和丙烯等重要基础化学品。这是众多化工价值链的起点:石脑油或丁烷等长链烃类 在蒸汽的作用下发生裂解。该装置可实现每年100万吨乙烯产能。 近日，巴斯夫位于华南的湛江一体化基地乙烯联合装置如期顺利投产。这是全球首套主压缩机(电驱)100%采用可再生能源驱动的乙烯联合装置。 此外，继近期多套丙烯下游装置顺利投产后，巴斯夫在湛江一体化基地已安全启动其环氧乙烷、乙二醇及聚乙烯生产装置。湛江一体化基地将成为巴斯夫 在全球的第三大一体化生产基地，仅次于路德维希港基地和安特卫普基地。该基地还将成为中国乃至全球范围内可持续生产的典范。例如，该基地将 100%使用可再生能源电力。巴斯夫湛江一体化基地的产品将主要供应中国，这一全球最大且增长最快的化工市场。 巴斯夫湛江一体化基地乙烯联合装置如期顺利投产。 ...