投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 PX供给持续紧张，聚酯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：PX供应紧张，盘面领先于实货 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 汽油裂解利润创下两年多新高的背景下，炼油厂持续优先将重整油用于汽油调和，而非芳烃生产，进一步加剧了PX原料供应的紧张局面。市场普遍预期， | | | | PX供需偏紧的格局将延续至2026年，PX价格走势偏强，显著利好PTA市场。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 当前PTA供应端略有收紧，而聚酯行业开工率保持稳定，整体负荷维持在90%以上。受益于部分海外国家贸易政策的积极调整，聚酯产品出口询盘明显增 | | | | 加，国内聚酯出口前景依然乐观。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口 ...

乙二醇港口累库压力凸显，关注煤制装置减产可能 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续两日稳定于3822元/吨， 但近期走势显示价格从3938元/吨持续回落至当前水平，市场呈现弱势震 荡。华东现货价格同步持平于3855元/吨，期现基差维持33元/吨的窄幅波 动，反映现货市场交投情绪谨慎。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量单日增加25557手至355406手，创近期新 高，而成交量大幅攀升至26.17万手，较前一日增长45.9%，显示资金入场 活跃但多空分歧加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率维持67.63%低位，其中煤制开工率连续两周稳 定于54.29%，油制开工率持平于76.23%。尽管乙烯法制工艺利润持续压缩 （如DOW化学法利润周降43元/吨至-1134元/吨），但油制装置仍维持高负 荷运行，煤制利润周内腰斩至112元/吨或压制后续开工弹性。 需求端 ：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷持平于63.43%，终端 需求未现季节性改善信号。下游刚性补库为主，缺乏投机性需求支撑。 库存端 ：华东主港库存周增10.7%至73.2万吨，其中张家港库存单周激增 27.9%至27.5万吨，创 ...

每经AI快讯，11月24日，国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一，甲醇涨超3%，玻璃涨超2%，乙二醇、玉米、淀 粉、棉纱、红枣、多晶硅、纯碱涨超1%。跌幅方面，碳酸锂、LU燃油、液化气、纯苯跌超2%，苯乙 烯、焦煤、棕榈油、沪银、原油跌超1%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

| 1.57% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5472 | 66.40% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | ટર્ટક | 86 | 184 | 3.28% | 硅罐 (SM601) | 5790 | 5606 | 59.30% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3220 | 163 | 5.33% | 66.60% | 3057 | 热卷 (HC2601) | 0.00% | 17.90% | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | | | 855 | 786 | ୧୦ | 8.79% | 54.20% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 21 | 1.27% | 1615 | 1 ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012 84号 | 可能做 | 日時 市 路 参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/ | 从业资格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期. A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 農汤 | | 散指 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 天如全部 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 国债 | 晉间。 | 美联储12月降息预期降温,铜价回调,但美联储仍处于降息周 | | | | | | 岸汤 | 期,且矿端扰动犹存,预计铜价回调幅度有限。 | 震荡 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | | | | | 在生产仍有小幅利润情况下,国内氧化铝产能持续释放,氧化铝 | 产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价格继续围绕 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 成本 ...

西南期货表示，近端乙二醇检修装置检修增多，供应小幅缩减，港口到港增加，库存延续累库，短期乙 二醇或承压运行，关注港口库存和供应变动情况。 国投安信期货分析称，乙二醇周产量环比微增，一体化提负，合成气法降负；港口库存持续增长。新产 能及老装置重启导致供应增长压力大，中期需求转弱，港口预期持续累库，延续偏空思路，月差反套为 主，持续关注合成气法效益下滑后的装置动态。 11月24日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，乙二醇期货主力合约开盘报3814.00元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，乙二醇主力最高触及3888.00元，下方探低3791.00元，涨幅达1.75%附近。 目前来看，乙二醇行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于乙二醇后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 东海期货指出，港口库存大幅累积至73.2万吨，下游开工逐渐下行，主港发货量持续仅有8000吨左右水 平，工厂隐形库存也在同步累积，乙二醇累库压力超过市场预期。另外近期煤价小幅走弱，合成气制装 置开工仍保持较高位置，供应压力仍在。乙二醇主力仍在测试底部支撑过程中，短期不建议低多。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment data shows significant divergence, and the performance of NVIDIA's AI business has restored market risk appetite. The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed serious differences, and the change of the October non - farm report schedule has led to a lack of key data for the December interest - rate decision. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but the policy remains firm, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - The spot pressure of the container shipping European line continues, and the futures price fluctuates lower. The market is currently mixed with long and short factors, and the short - term volatility may intensify. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term trend is unclear [14][15][17]. - For copper, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [86000, 87000] [18][20][21]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [22]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate narrowly, and the nickel - stainless steel market should be wary of callbacks in the unilateral downward range and pay attention to option opportunities [22][24][25]. - Tin is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - The risk of a decline in lithium carbonate prices still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. It is expected to show a "wide - range shock and weak" operating characteristic in the range of 83000 - 93000 yuan/ton in the next two weeks [27]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to maintain an oscillating and weak pattern in the short term [27][28][29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate, and there is support below [30]. - For steel products, the overall finished products are supported by raw material costs below, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range, with rebar in the range of 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3100 - 3400 [31][32]. - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and the market sentiment to improve before considering shorting at high prices [33][34]. - For coking coal and coke, the support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. - The crude oil market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term [38][39][40]. - The valuation of LPG is being repaired, and attention should be paid to the profit of PDH and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - For PTA - PX, the speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds [46][47][48]. - The upward height of methanol 01 is limited. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions and consider 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [48][49]. - The downward space of PP is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern [50][52][53]. - PE is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern, and a selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - The bottom space of asphalt is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - rubber fell after reaching the upper limit of the range, and attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic policies remain firm. Overseas, the US employment data is divided, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is inconsistent. The market is concerned about the November employment data and the appointment of the Fed chairman. The RMB exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom, with the center slowly declining" [1][2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The dovish remarks of Fed officials have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may support the stock index in the short term. However, due to the tense Sino - Japanese relations and the lack of policy news, the stock index is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term long positions should be held. Although there are some negative factors, the impact on the bond market is mainly short - term sentiment, and the substantial negative impact is limited [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The spot index has weakened again, and the shipping companies' price - holding efforts have not been effective. The market is mixed with long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the precious metals are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. The long - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average [14][15][17]. - **Copper**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the fundamentals of each link [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The reduction of TC in November has increased the willingness of smelters to cut production, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to exports and the macro situation [22][23][24]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They are in a unilateral downward range, and attention should be paid to callbacks and option opportunities. The cost of nickel - iron has collapsed, and the downstream demand for stainless steel is weak [24][25]. - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The supply of concentrates is tight, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of a decline still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the downstream demand may decline seasonally [27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to follow the price fluctuations of related varieties and maintain an oscillating and weak pattern [27][28][29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and there is support below. The raw materials for smelting are tight, and the cost of recycled lead provides support [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate in the range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit suppressed by inventory. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The price continues to oscillate widely. The decline of coking coal price may support the iron ore price. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before shorting at high prices [33][34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand. The production is expected to decline, and de - stocking may depend on production cuts [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro and geopolitical factors [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand for PDH is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the profit and the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: The speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the short term [46][47][48]. - **Methanol**: The upward height of 01 is limited. The port pressure is increasing, and the inland is de - stocking. It is recommended to hold short - call positions and consider reverse spreads [48][49]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand growth is slowing down [50][52][53]. - **PE**: It is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, especially with the end of the agricultural film peak season. A selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply has decreased, and the demand is gradually weakening [60][61]. - **Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: They fell after reaching the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61].

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价下挫。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国合作 | 制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消 | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，原 | ★ | | | | 油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南 | 美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | LPG | | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | | 成本支撑转弱，基差走强。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口资源集中到港， | L | 国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 | 6 | 周下滑，11 | 月下旬后棚膜旺季逐 ...

文字早评 2025/11/24 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美国政府据称正考虑允许英伟达对华出售 H200 芯片； 2、国资委组织召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并举行重点项目签约仪式； 3、长鑫存储发布 DDR5 新品，最高速率达 8000Mbps，最高颗粒容量 24Gb，并同步推出覆盖服务器、工 作站及个人电脑全领域的七大模组产品； 4、高盛合伙人：美股出现多头缴械迹象 企稳前抛售将继续。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.62%/-0.57%/-1.26%/-2.32%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.84%/-0.70%/-3.11%/-6.16%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.88%/-0.70%/-3.75%/-6.98%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.50%/-0.32%/-0.58%/-0.77%。 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 115.570 ，环比变化-0.26%；T 主力合约收于 108.430 ，环比变 化-0.05%；TF 主力合约收于 105.855 ，环比变化-0.08%；TS 主力合约收于 102.460 ，环比变化 0.00% ...

乙二醇、石蜡——大宗商品热点解读 20251121 摘要 2025 年国内外市场对乙二醇需求及供给情况如何？ 2025 年国内市场对乙二醇需求趋于饱和，新产能增速明显放缓，仅有 3 套新 装置投产，总计新增 170 万吨产能，其中 80 万吨为合成气制，90 万吨为乙烯 制。预计 2026 年将新增 215 万吨产能。目前国内开工率维持高位，其中油制 开工率在 60%-70%，合成气制开工率在 50%-70%。进口方面，由于海外供 应增加及价格回升刺激，中国 1-9 月进口量达 564.74 万吨，同比增长 14.64%。主要进口来源国包括沙特、中国台湾等。 宏观经济因素对 2025 年全球及中国市场的影响有哪些？ 乙二醇生产工艺主要分为油制和煤制两种路线。油制路线成本较高但工 艺成熟，煤制路线成本较低但产品紫外透光率较低。下游厂商逐渐接受 煤制与油质混合使用。 2025 年国内乙二醇需求趋于饱和，新增产能增速放缓，预计新增 170 万吨产能。进口量同比增长 14.64%，主要来自沙特、中国台湾等地。 宏观经济因素如中美贸易摩擦和中东地缘政治紧张，对乙二醇市场产生 显著影响，导致市场情绪波动和供应链不稳定。 ...