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Coca-Cola FEMSA(KOF) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-24 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated volume declined 0.6% to reach 1.04 billion unit cases, showing sequential improvement compared to the second quarter [6] - Total revenues grew 3.3% to $71.9 billion pesos, driven by revenue management initiatives, despite volume decline and unfavorable currency translation effects [7] - Gross profit increased 0.9% to $32.4 billion pesos, with a margin contraction of 100 basis points to 45.1% [8] - Operating income rose 6.8% to $10.3 billion pesos, with operating margin expanding 50 basis points to 14.3% [8] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 3.2% to $14.4 billion pesos, with EBITDA margin remaining flat at 20.1% [9] - Majority net income slightly increased to $5.9 billion pesos, driven mainly by operating income growth [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, volumes declined 3.7% due to a soft macroeconomic backdrop, while Coca-Cola Zero grew 23% year on year [10][11] - Guatemala saw a volume increase of 3.2% to 50.8 million unit cases, with Coca-Cola Zero growing 16.9% year on year [14][15] - In Brazil, volumes increased 2.6% year on year, driven by share gains and a successful campaign for Coca-Cola Zero, which grew volumes by 38% [17][18] - Colombia's volumes grew 2.9%, supported by share gains in brand Coca-Cola and flavors [19][20] - Argentina's volumes increased 2.9%, with a focus on enhancing affordability and leveraging digital initiatives [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mexico faced a soft macroeconomic environment impacting consumer preferences, while South America showed a more resilient macro and consumer environment [5] - The recent excise tax increase in Mexico is expected to impact volume performance in 2026, with anticipated modest economic growth of 1.5% [13] - In Brazil, despite lower average temperatures and signs of slower growth, the company managed to increase volumes due to share gains [17] - Colombia's economy is gradually recovering, driven by improving sectors such as commerce and agriculture [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on sustainable growth, RGM affordability initiatives, and cost control measures to navigate challenging operating conditions [6][14] - The strategy includes enhancing affordability, accelerating single-serve mix, leveraging digital initiatives, and maintaining a lean cost structure [21][23] - The company is committed to incentivizing low and non-caloric products in response to the new excise tax [13][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in adapting to challenging conditions, particularly in Mexico, while also highlighting the importance of community support initiatives following recent storms [4][5] - The company anticipates a challenging year for volume performance in Mexico due to the excise tax increase, but expects positive brand equity impacts from the World Cup [13] - Management noted that the operational structure has been adjusted to align with current volume conditions, preparing for expected challenges [39] Other Important Information - The company has engaged with the government regarding proposed excise taxes and reaffirmed its commitment to low and non-caloric products [13] - The company has locked in a significant portion of its main commodities for the remainder of the year, providing visibility and comfort for the fourth quarter [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on profitability improvement in Mexico and Central America - Management indicated that profitability improvements were driven by savings initiatives and operational adjustments, despite ongoing gross profit pressures [36][39] Question: Strategies for Argentina, Colombia, and Guatemala - Management discussed the importance of maintaining household penetration and adapting strategies to local market conditions, emphasizing the need for a sustainable long-term growth model [40][43] Question: CAPEX adjustments for next year - Management confirmed that CAPEX would be rethought, primarily delaying investments in distribution centers due to expected volume declines [48][49] Question: Volume outlook for Mexico next year - Management provided a preliminary outlook of low to mid-single-digit volume declines for Mexico, influenced by the upcoming excise tax [53][61] Question: Pricing strategies in response to new taxes - Management plans to pass through the excise tax while maintaining consumer choice and gradually shifting towards low or non-caloric options [76] Question: Consumer dynamics in Brazil - Management acknowledged softer consumer dynamics in Brazil but noted that share gains and a strong base from the previous year supported growth [59][60]