Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in buyer confidence, with only 9.1% of residents expecting prices to rise, the lowest since 2019, while 23.5% anticipate a decline [4] - The phenomenon of "price drops without buyers" is attributed to a fundamental shift in market psychology rather than simple supply-demand imbalances [3][5] Group 1: Buyer Sentiment - The current market has created a "buy high, not low" mentality among buyers, leading to increased caution and a preference for waiting for further price drops before making purchases [4] - Consumer spending patterns have shifted, with housing no longer being a top priority, as tourism and education have taken precedence in household expenditures [4] Group 2: Seller Strategies - Sellers are engaging in a "price drop game," where frequent small reductions in listing prices are leading to increased buyer skepticism about property quality [5] - A significant portion of properties (91%) in Shanghai have seen price reductions, yet 45% of sold properties have experienced price increases, indicating that substantial one-time price cuts are more effective than gradual reductions [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The traditional value anchors for real estate, such as surrounding new home prices and historical transaction prices, have become ineffective in the current market [5] - The investment appeal of real estate has diminished, with stocks and funds gaining popularity among residents as preferred investment vehicles [6] Group 4: Market Recovery - The increase in listing volumes in cities like Quanzhou and Mianyang, exceeding 140% year-on-year, reflects sellers' urgency to divest non-core assets [7] - The market is undergoing a transition from being driven by financial attributes to a focus on residential value, indicating a need for a new pricing logic that aligns with current market realities [7]