两个期货账户+股票，2025年总收益1000W。意外开心 一、2025收益构成 （2）低频量化策略组合-占总体收益的35% 作为全年投资的稳健打底板块，今年整体运行稳定，是最省心省力的组合品种。它的核心是 自动化低干预属性，机械化执行即可，无需盯盘。管理上遵循 "定期视检、择强汰弱"：每几 个月复盘各子策略表现，核查是否失效、底层逻辑是否适配市场。剔除不及预期、逻辑有瑕 疵的策略，保留收益稳定的强势品种，动态优化组合效率。 （3）抄作业组合-占总体收益的15% 这是我2018 年入市以来最早采用的非主观策略。不过今年这个策略的规模持续缩减，核心顾 虑在于抄作业限制较多：1.主理人可随时随心关闭组合，今年又有10个在抄作业关闭。2.长 期不调仓，其不调仓是正常策略还是疏于管理，我们无法判断。3.优秀的组合往往跟踪人数过 多，每回调仓易产生巨大滑点，显著侵蚀收益。 不过未来我并未计划进一步缩减该策略规模 —— 作为整体投资组合的重要组成部分，它能有 效降低整体收益波动，平滑收益曲线。后续若再有作业组合关闭，腾出的多余资金将转移至 其他表现优秀的作业组合中，提升优质作业的配置占比，类似于指数成分股择强汰弱的规 则。 ...

Summary of LivaNova Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: LivaNova - **Industry**: Medical Devices, specifically focusing on neuromodulation and cardiopulmonary products Key Points Company Strategy and Transformation - LivaNova is undergoing a portfolio transformation aimed at achieving durable, accelerated growth in both top and bottom lines, focusing on faster growth and more profitable markets [4][10] - The company has revamped its innovation agenda, enhancing core research and development efforts under new leadership [3][4] Epilepsy Market Insights - Epilepsy represents two-thirds of LivaNova's profit and is a core focus area [5] - The epilepsy market is highly underpenetrated, with one-third of patients being drug-resistant, presenting significant growth opportunities [6][7] - Key drivers for growth in the epilepsy segment include: - **Innovation**: Development of a digitally connected system to improve treatment decisions [8] - **Reimbursement**: Recent CMS decision to upgrade reimbursement for replacement devices to level five, enhancing economic viability [8][9] - **Clinical Evidence**: Successful CoreVNS study demonstrating significant improvements in drug-resistant epilepsy patients [9] Financial Projections for Epilepsy - LivaNova projects mid-single-digit growth for the epilepsy segment through 2030, with 30% of business from new patients and 70% from replacement devices [10][11] - The company anticipates low single-digit growth for replacement devices and mid to high single-digit growth for new patients, driven by improved clinical data and reimbursement [11][12] Cardiopulmonary Business - LivaNova expects mid to high single-digit growth in its cardiopulmonary business through 2030, driven by: - An upgrade cycle for new technology after 17 years without upgrades [17][18] - Market share gains, having gained 10 share points over the last two years [19] - Upgrades to the current installed base of machines [19] - The company is building capacity to operate at 60% market share, with a focus on maintaining financial responsibility and public health obligations [22] Sleep Apnea Market Entry - LivaNova is entering the sleep apnea market, which is larger and faster-growing than the epilepsy market, with a strong right to win due to existing neuromodulation capabilities and differentiated clinical data [34] - The company plans to launch a rechargeable device with a battery life of 15 years, requiring approximately one hour of recharging per week [36][39] - The Polysync technology will allow for customized titration of the device, enhancing patient outcomes [42][43] Long-term Financial Outlook - LivaNova has issued a five-year vision projecting mid to high single-digit growth through 2028, followed by 25% earnings growth in subsequent years [55][56] - The company aims to leverage its strong core while investing in high-growth opportunities like obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) [56][57] Additional Considerations - The company is committed to publishing clinical data and ensuring that new technologies are integrated into their product offerings [46] - LivaNova's strategic investments are designed to scale its presence in high-margin markets while maintaining a strong annual AOI margin of 20% [56][57] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the LivaNova conference call, highlighting the company's focus on innovation, market opportunities, and financial growth projections.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA increased by $4 million with EBITDA margins up by 70 basis points, driven by improved price-cost dynamics in Fiber, Polymers, and Integrated segments [15] - Free cash flow rose by almost 400% to $171 million in the quarter, demonstrating the resilience of the business model [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customized polymer volumes increased by 2.2%, with low double-digit growth in small containers, while IBCs and large drums saw mid-single-digit declines [12] - Durable metals volumes declined by 5.8%, reflecting softness in North America and low single-digit declines in EMEA [13] - Sustainable fiber volumes decreased by 7.6%, with URB mills operating above 90% capacity [13] - Integrated Solutions volumes grew by 2.6%, led by strong volumes in recycled fiber [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The markets chosen for investment are resilient despite a mixed macro environment, with targeted end markets like agrochemicals, pharma, and food and beverage outperforming [12] - Customer sentiment remains cautious, and the overall macro economy is not robust, impacting volume performance [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a "Build to Last" strategy, focusing on reshaping the portfolio, optimizing cost structures, and targeting markets with strong competitive advantages [22] - The divestment of the containerboard business is expected to close soon, with cash proceeds anticipated to lower the leverage ratio below 1.2 times [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2027 commitments, emphasizing that as demand recovers, operating leverage will significantly enhance results [22] - The operating environment remains soft in North America and EMEA, particularly in the chemical sector, but the company is focused on growth in polymers [52][53] Other Important Information - The company has achieved $20 million in run-rate savings towards its fiscal 2025 commitments, with a focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency [10] - The planned divestitures are part of a strategy to concentrate efforts on markets with the greatest growth potential [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the guidance raise for the year was related to containerboard? - Management indicated that there was no containerboard impact in raising guidance, which was primarily due to SG&A cost reductions [26] Question: Can you comment on price-cost trends entering fiscal fourth quarter? - Steel costs have been relatively flat, with no significant changes expected in pricing [27] Question: What is the current normalized EBITDA for containerboard? - The trailing 12-month EBITDA for containerboard was $218 million, with a current monthly figure of $25 million [32] Question: Is increasing exposure to more defensive end markets a strategic priority? - The focus remains on end markets that are growing faster than GDP, such as food and chemicals [47] Question: What is the upper leverage range comfortable for potential deals? - The target leverage ratio is between 2 to 2.5 times, with the ability to handle larger deals if they meet strategic criteria [69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA increased by $4 million with EBITDA margins up by 70 basis points due to improved price-cost dynamics in Fiber, Polymers, and Integrated segments [14] - Free cash flow rose by almost 400% to $171 million in the quarter, demonstrating the resilience of the business model [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customized polymer volumes increased by 2.2%, driven by low double-digit growth in small containers, while IBCs and large drums saw mid-single-digit declines [10] - Durable metals volumes declined by 5.8%, reflecting softness in North America and low single-digit declines in EMEA [11] - Sustainable fiber volumes decreased by 7.6%, with URB mills operating above 90% capacity [11] - Integrated Solutions volumes grew by 2.6%, led by strong recycled fiber volumes [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The markets chosen for investment are resilient despite a mixed macro environment, with targeted end markets like agrochemicals and pharma outperforming [10] - Customer sentiment remains cautious, and the overall macro economy is not robust, impacting volume performance [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a "Build to Last" strategy, focusing on reshaping the portfolio and optimizing cost structures [20] - Divestments of the containerboard and Timberland businesses are aimed at concentrating efforts on high-growth markets, with expected cash proceeds of approximately €1.75 billion [8] - The company aims to achieve $100 million in cost reductions, with $20 million in run rate savings already achieved [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2027 commitments, emphasizing that as demand recovers, operating leverage will significantly enhance results [20] - The operating environment remains cautious, particularly in North America and EMEA, with no significant changes expected from tariffs [49] Other Important Information - The company plans to close the divestment of its containerboard business by the end of the month, with a focus on capital efficiency and durable shareholder returns [8] - The company has a solid pipeline for M&A opportunities, focusing on businesses that generate at least 18% EBITDA margin and 50% free cash flow conversion [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the guidance raise for the year was related to containerboard? - Management indicated that there was no containerboard impact in raising guidance, which was primarily due to SG&A cost reductions [24] Question: Can you comment on price-cost trends entering fiscal fourth quarter? - Steel costs have been relatively flat, with no significant changes expected in pricing [25] Question: What is the current normalized EBITDA for containerboard? - The trailing 12-month EBITDA for containerboard was $218 million, with current monthly figures at $25 million [29] Question: How do you view capital allocation following divestitures? - The company expects consistent cash flow generation and prioritizes dividends, maintenance, debt paydown, and organic growth [35][38] Question: What is the expected margin recovery in Integrated Solutions? - OCC pricing was a significant driver of margin squeeze, and the company is focused on maintaining a secure supply chain for recycled fiber [76]