行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 海外扰动增加，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260223-20260227 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.98%，深证成指上涨 2.80%，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 9.77%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 8.69 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 8.32%，铝上涨 5.89 ...

在此之前，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔曾表示，加拿大若想与美国开展贸易，就必须接受"一定程度的更高关税"。 在美国最高法院驳回特朗普此前的全面关税政策后，他通过一项从未使用过的《122条款》颁布了全球10%的关税。 加拿大财政部长表示，加拿大若想继续向美国出口商品，可能不得不支付基准关税这一"代价"。 弗朗索瓦-菲利普·尚帕涅的此番言论是在唐纳德·特朗普发表国情咨文之后作出的。特朗普在咨文中表示，他希望关税最终能取代所得税，成为美国的主要收 入来源。 美国是加拿大迄今为止最大的贸易伙伴，占加拿大出口总额的约75%。 加拿大对美国关税的这一新态度，源于美国最高法院以6比3的投票结果作出的一项裁决——该裁决认定特朗普此前颁布的全面关税政策非法，总统超越了其 职权范围。 作为对该裁决的回应，特朗普宣布了一项新的10%全球关税，以取代被最高法院驳回的关税政策。 这项新关税已正式生效，其依据是1974年《贸易法》中一项从未使用过的《122条款》。该条款赋予总统在150天内征收最高15%关税的权力，期满后国会必 须介入。 当被问及总统在演讲中的言论是否会阻碍加拿大取消关税的希望时，尚帕涅在渥太华对记者表示："我认为现在全世 ...

2月27日，和讯投顾杨玉杰表示，指数昨日如期回踩，但调整幅度有限，仅为大行情启动前的洗盘动 作。今年真正的大机会正在酝酿中，每年3月出现的"改写命运行情"并非巧合，而是资金、政策、情绪 共振的结果。不过，本轮行情仅少数人能把握，因盘面迷惑性强、板块轮动过快，操作混乱易导致踏空 与追高双输。当前两大核心方向需明确：涨价题材（金属、有色、化工、资源品）短期休整后仍是真主 线，昨日调整实为倒车接人，今日开盘已现拉升，盘中若有回踩可视为安全介入点，其逻辑在于周期涨 价的传导效应及3月两会稳增长政策（新质生产力、能源安全）对上游资源的支撑；AI硬件（CPU、半 导体）昨日反弹属超跌性质，短线追高风险收益比失衡，虽为中长期科技主线，但需等待节奏明朗后再 布局。需强调：市场逻辑需持续验证，首次听闻者切勿盲从，紧跟信号、守住主线，方能在今年市场中 锤炼真本事。 ...

2月末起逐步恢复。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 甲醇整体受到伊朗局势的影响预期未来进口减量但下游负反 馈明显,多空交织(2) 下游MTO龙头装置停车且部分企业降负荷 生产。(3) 上游库存普遍较低,下游库存普遍中高。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。(2)价格回归合理区间。(3)春节假期. 需求平淡。(4)地缘政治加剧,原油上涨。 6(1)检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2)下游改善 不及预期。 (3) 价格回归合理区间。 (4) 地缘政治加剧,原油 上涨。 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行,倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。8(3)抢出口 PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退,盘面重新交易基本面。 (2) 基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。 (3) 液氯小幅补贴,现货价格小幅上涨。 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 溢价回升,PG节后走势偏强。(3)海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓 预计基差仍将修复走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、利润预计季 节性修复,LPG需求端短期偏 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 本文资讯内容根据网络，冠通期货编辑整理而成，仅供投资者参考。 发布日期：2026/2/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.14%报 5183.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.95%报 89.21 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 0.09% ...

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.26） 基金研究 权益市场震荡修复，宽基指数多数呈现资金流出态势——公募基金周报 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续下降——融资融券周报 公司研究 以科研为基，轴承+磨料磨具双主业协同发展——国机精工（002046）公司深 度报告 行业研究 证 静待国内需求复苏，关注宏观情绪影响——金属行业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2026/02/26） 晨会纪要（2026/02/26） 基金研究 权益市场震荡修复，宽基指数多数呈现资金流出态势——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 节前一周统计区间为 2026 年 2 月 9 日至 2026 年 2 月 13 日，权益市场主要指数多数上涨，其中，涨幅最大 的是科创 50 ...

一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数集体上涨，有色金属板块领涨市场 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.72%，深证成指上涨1.29%，创业板指上涨1.41%。多只有色金属板块ETF上涨，其中，稀土ETF易方达 （159715.SZ）上涨6.25%，稀土ETF（159713.SZ）上涨6.12%，稀土ETF（516780.SH）上涨6.08%。电子板块多只ETF下跌，科创芯片设计ETF （588780.SH）下跌0.99%，信创ETF广发（159539.SZ）下跌0.94%，信创ETF（159537.SZ）下跌0.81%。 中信证券表示，金属行业供应端扰动的频度和烈度加剧，钴、锡、锂、铜、镍等品种受扰动影响价格显著上涨。需求侧，电网投资、储能电池、AI服务器 等领域需求有望延续高景气，结构性的需求韧性依然较强。且贸易争端下的囤货诉求也带来了需求的放大效应，铜、锂、稀土等品种有望受益于需求走强实 现价格上涨。 2.股票ETF马年开市首日资金净流入56亿元 据中国基金报，马年开年，市场做多热情高涨，股票ETF也获资金积极加仓。据银河证券基金研究中心数据统计，2月24日，全市场股票ETF（含跨境ETF） 资金净流入 ...

6日，伊朗与美国在阿曼马斯喀特举行的间接核谈判未能取得任何实质性的突破。虽然双方就继续对话 达成了初步共识，但核心分歧依然存在，始终未能弥合。就在谈判结束后数小时，美国总统特朗普突然 签署了一项行政命令，宣布对所有与伊朗有直接或间接贸易往来的国家征收额外关税。特朗普虽表示下 周将再次与伊朗谈判，并强调有大量时间达成协议，但关税大棒的提前落下无疑严重破坏了谈判的基 础。 据悉，伊朗代表团由外长阿拉格齐亲自率领，而美方则派出总统特使威特科夫和库什纳领衔的代表团， 值得注意的是，美军中央司令部司令库珀的参与凸显了美方在谈判中的复杂考量。伊朗方面明确表示， 谈判应当仅聚焦核问题，拒绝将导弹计划及地区事务纳入议程，并强烈强调，谈判必须在无压力、无威 胁的氛围下进行。然而，美方始终坚持伊朗零核能力的核心诉求，双方在关键问题上的立场根本对立， 为谈判破裂埋下了伏笔。尽管伊朗外长乐观评价谈判氛围良好、是一个良好的开端，并且阿曼、卡塔尔 等地区国家及联合国秘书长古特雷斯也纷纷呼吁通过外交途径解决争端，但美方的后续举动显然表明， 其所谓的外交优先实际上只是一个策略性表述。 根据白宫的声明，自行政命令生效之日起，任何直接或间接从伊 ...

新华财经北京2月25日电沪深两市三大股指25日早间普遍小幅高开。早盘期间，沪指和深成指在未回补 与上一交易日之间缺口的情况下持续上扬，创业板指盘初冲高回落，完成缺口回补后震荡上扬，至午间 收盘时，三大股指均显著上涨。午后，各股指逐渐收窄涨幅，14时30分后有所反弹，最终均显著收涨。 消息面上 国家能源局：大力推动油气勘探开发和增储上产有序加强油气基础设施联通 国家能源局石油天然气司司长刘红表示，"十五五"时期，围绕确保国家能源安全，建设能源强国和新型 能源体系的要求，组织油气行业，夯实供应基础，全面深化改革，加快绿色转型和打造新质生产力，完 善富有弹性韧性的油气产业链供应链。2026年重点做好以下工作：一是扎实做好"十五五"油气相关规划 编制；二是大力推动油气勘探开发和增储上产；三是有序加强油气基础设施联通；四是不断夯实进口油 气保障能力；五是着力推动油气市场体系建设；六是加快油气绿色低碳和数智化转型。 板块方面，金属股整体涨幅靠前，小金属、能源金属、钢铁、有色金属等细分领域均有较大幅度上涨。 钛白粉、磷化工、地热能等板块延续升势，房地产服务、高宽带内存、复合集流体等板块显著上涨。影 视院线、广告营销、CPO ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].