Macroeconomic Insights - China's economy is entering a critical phase amid complex international and domestic transformations, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic demand as a core driver of growth[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" must prioritize people-centered and high-quality development, balancing development and security[1] Theoretical Framework - Keynes' Effective Demand Theory highlights that economic growth relies on total demand, which is influenced by consumer confidence and expectations[2] - Empirical studies show that social security and employment spending significantly enhance consumption rates, with a 1% significance level[2] Microeconomic Considerations - Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis suggests that individual consumption is based on long-term income expectations rather than short-term income fluctuations[3] - As of the first eight months of 2025, private fixed asset investment remains in a contraction phase, but improved financing conditions are gradually boosting corporate confidence[3] Behavioral Economics - Prospect Theory indicates that individuals exhibit loss aversion, which affects their consumption and investment decisions, leading to a preference for saving in uncertain environments[7] - Enhancing policy certainty can effectively stimulate domestic demand by increasing consumer and corporate confidence[7] Strategic Recommendations - The upcoming "14th Central Committee" meeting is a strategic window for planning the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on stimulating domestic demand through institutional and policy design[8] - Aligning macroeconomic strategies with public sentiment is crucial for fostering consumption and investment, ultimately driving sustainable economic growth[8]