政党衰落
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【环时深度】成立70年,日本自民党遭遇多重挑战
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-10-28 22:26
Core Points - The election of Kishi Sanae as Japan's new Prime Minister is marked by challenges, including the withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition, necessitating alliances with other parties [1] - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is facing a decline in membership and support, indicating a deeper identity crisis and loss of connection with Japanese society [2][3] - The LDP's historical dominance in Japanese politics is being questioned as it struggles to address long-term challenges such as economic stagnation and demographic changes [8][12] Membership and Identity Crisis - The LDP's membership has decreased significantly, with approximately 915,600 eligible voters for the recent presidential election, down by over 140,000 from the previous election [2] - The party's peak membership was over 5.4 million in 1991, highlighting a long-term decline [2] - The reduction in membership reflects a diminishing connection with society and a decline in social recognition [3] Support and Political Control - The LDP's support rate has dropped to around 26% as of September 2023, a significant decline from its historical average of 40%-60% during its earlier years [4][5] - The party's ability to control Japanese politics has weakened, transitioning from a dominant party to a minority ruling party [5] - Public sentiment indicates a preference for cooperation with opposition parties, with 70% of respondents favoring collaboration due to the LDP's lack of majority [5] Historical Context and Challenges - The LDP has been a dominant force in Japanese politics since its formation in 1955, often described as a "political machine" [6][7] - However, the party has faced criticism for failing to address critical issues such as economic stagnation and social trust, particularly after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s [8] - The party's focus on short-term gains has led to unresolved core issues, contributing to its recent electoral failures [8] Future Prospects - The LDP is at a crossroads, with its political ideology and organizational methods losing appeal among younger voters and women [11][12] - The party's upcoming 70th anniversary presents an opportunity to redefine its vision, but skepticism remains regarding its ability to regain public trust [10][12] - The changing political landscape suggests that the era of LDP dominance may be coming to an end, leading to a period of uncertainty in Japanese politics [12]