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古钱币市场正在复刻文玩圈的泡沫?
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-17 23:23
Core Insights - PCGS has launched a coin grading service for Chinese ancient coins, which is expected to enhance the trust system in the Chinese ancient coin trading market [1][2] - The ancient coin market has seen a shift from high-end collectibles to more accessible low-end coins, with significant growth in the latter category [4][6][8] - The overall market for coin trading in China has surpassed 60 billion yuan, with a stable annual growth rate of around 15% [12] Group 1: PCGS Launch and Market Impact - PCGS has certified over 59 million coins globally since its establishment in 1986, with a total certified coin value exceeding 57.2 billion USD [1] - The introduction of PCGS's grading service is anticipated to upgrade the trust system in the Chinese ancient coin market, which has been rapidly evolving into a new asset class [2][3] - Concerns have been raised about whether Western grading systems can accurately assess Eastern coins, as grading involves more than just authenticity and scoring [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Dynamics - The ancient coin market is experiencing a bifurcation, where high-end coins are losing popularity while low-end coins are gaining traction, driven by increased availability from archaeological finds [4][5][6] - Data from 2023 indicates that the average auction price for coins has decreased by 18.84%, contrasting with significant increases in other art categories [6] - The rise of live-streaming platforms has made low-end coins more accessible, with average sales per live session ranging from 100 to 500 yuan [10][11][12] Group 3: Future Projections and Cultural Shifts - The global coin grading market is projected to grow from 15.08 million coins in 2020 to 20.09 million coins by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.32% [12] - The younger generation is increasingly participating in the coin market, with a notable shift in perception towards emotional value rather than purely financial gain [14][15] - The market for ancient coins may not replicate the rapid growth seen in other collectibles, as the grading costs can exceed the value of lower-end coins [17][22]