新型储能装机预测
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报告预计未来五年新型储能复合增长率超过20%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 03:17
Core Insights - The report by the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance indicates that by the end of 2025, China's operational energy storage projects will reach a cumulative installed capacity of 213.3 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 54% [1][2] - The market share of energy storage technology routes has shifted, with pumped hydro storage accounting for 31.3%, while new energy storage, represented by lithium batteries, has seen significant growth, with its cumulative installed capacity exceeding two-thirds of the total [1][2] - The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has reached 144.7 GW/373.7 GWh, an increase of 84.8% and 102.9% year-on-year, respectively, which is 45 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1][2] Future Projections - The report employs a gray prediction model and polynomial regression to forecast future installations, estimating that by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China will reach approximately 371.2 GW in a conservative scenario and 450.7 GW in an ideal scenario, with compound annual growth rates of about 20.7% and 25.5% over the next five years [1][2] - To meet the power system capacity requirements by 2030, approximately 300 GW of new energy storage capacity will be needed, with 2-4 hour new energy storage primarily addressing daily peak shaving and rapid ramp-up needs, while storage exceeding 4 hours will support cross-time supply demands [3] Technology Development Trends - The report suggests that from 2025 to 2030, 2-3 hour lithium iron phosphate battery storage will be the mainstream technology, focusing on breakthroughs in large-capacity integration, high safety protection, and intelligent control to achieve demonstration applications of GW-level energy storage systems [3]