Core Thesis - Airbnb, Inc. is transitioning from a high-growth disruptor during the pandemic to a strong cash-generating platform with a focus on operational efficiency and resilience [2][5] Financial Performance - As of September 18th, Airbnb's share price was $125.47, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 30.45 and 25.58 respectively [1] - The company reported a record free cash flow of $4.48 billion for 2024, with a gross margin of 71.5%, operating margin of 23%, and free cash flow margin of 40% [2] - Revenue grew by 11.9% year-over-year in 2024, with nights and experiences booked increasing by 9% [2] - Gross bookings are projected to rise from $81.8 billion to approximately $104 billion by 2026 [2] Earnings and Valuation - Net income decreased from $4.79 billion in 2023 to $2.65 billion in 2024, with EPS falling from $7.24 to $4.11 due to non-operating items and share-based compensation dilution [3] - Valuation remains high, with a P/E of 32x and EV/EBITDA of 28x, reflecting expectations of continued EPS growth that may not materialize [3] - Consensus projects an 11% EPS CAGR through 2027, indicating limited upside relative to current market pricing [3] Technical Analysis - The stock is under pressure, having broken key support at $132, with resistance near $145–147 [4] - Bearish MACD crosses and downward RSI divergence suggest potential further downside to $125–118 if support fails [4] - Investors may consider accumulation only on pullbacks below $120 or on a confirmed breakout above $147, indicating a need for strategic entry [4] Market Sentiment - The stock price has depreciated approximately 8.27% since previous bullish coverage, reflecting partial realization of the bullish thesis [5] - The current perspective emphasizes caution regarding slowing earnings and high valuation despite strong operational fundamentals [5]