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华泰证券:日本市场短期或重回“高市交易” 中长期看日元真实汇率需要重估
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-22 00:25
Market Overview - The report from Huatai Securities indicates a potential return to "high market trading" in the short term, contingent on whether the Bank of Japan's normalization of monetary policy is delayed [1] - The recent exit of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition temporarily caused a pullback in "high market trading," but the election of high-profile candidate Suga Yoshihide may lead to a resurgence in this trading pattern, characterized by rising Japanese stocks, increasing bond yields, and a depreciating yen [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The focus remains on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization, particularly the statements expected from the October meeting [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the pressure for the Bank of Japan to normalize its monetary policy in the medium to long term remains significant [1] Inflation and Real Exchange Rate - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has exceeded the 2% target for 37 consecutive months, resulting in significantly negative real interest rates persisting for an extended period [1] - There is an urgent need for the real exchange rate of the yen to appreciate, which could occur through a market-driven appreciation of the yen or via high inflation and rising asset prices if the government opts for an accommodative monetary policy [1] - The long-term impact of achieving "appreciation" through high inflation and asset price increases is expected to be more substantial [1]