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兴业证券:明年哪些行业有望景气加速?哪些困境反转?
智通财经网· 2025-11-06 13:16
Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that as the year-end approaches, market participants are increasingly focused on next year's economic outlook, with current economic conditions having a diminished impact on stock prices. Historical analysis since 2016 shows a strong positive correlation between industry performance rankings in the year-end market and their earnings growth in the following year, while the correlation with current earnings growth is weak or even negative [1]. Group 1: High Prosperity Industries - High prosperity industries for the next year, expected to have a net profit growth rate of over 30%, include AI hardware (communication equipment, consumer electronics, semiconductors), new energy (batteries, wind power equipment), military industry (ground armaments), and IT services [4]. - Other high prosperity sectors include electronics (components, optical optoelectronics), downstream AI (gaming, software development), automotive (passenger and commercial vehicles), military (naval and aerospace equipment, military electronics), automation equipment, and photovoltaic equipment [4]. - Industries expected to see a net profit growth rate of 10%-30% with improving economic conditions include pharmaceuticals (chemical pharmaceuticals, medical devices, biological products), downstream AI (digital media, computer equipment), machinery (engineering machinery, specialized equipment, general equipment), and new energy (grid equipment, motors) [4]. Group 2: Cyclical Industries - Cyclical industries expected to have high prosperity next year, with a net profit growth rate of over 30%, include aviation airports, building materials (glass fiber, plastics, non-metallic materials), new metal materials, and agriculture (planting and breeding) [6]. - Other cyclical sectors anticipated to see high prosperity include energy metals, chemical fibers, rubber, retail, and leisure foods [7]. - Industries projected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 10%-30% with improving economic conditions include new consumption (beverages, dairy products, accessories, entertainment products, cosmetics, personal care products, small home appliances), service consumption (education, hotel catering, tourism), agriculture (feed), chemicals (chemical raw materials, chemical products), special steel, and renovation materials [7].