Core Insights - The African smartphone market is experiencing a significant rebound, with Q3 2025 shipments expected to surge by 24% year-on-year, reaching 22.8 million units, following five consecutive quarters of decline [1][7] - This growth outpaces the global smartphone market's moderate recovery, driven by increased demand in key markets, currency stabilization, enhanced financing usage, and improved retail activities [1] Market Performance - Most markets in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa recorded double-digit growth in smartphone shipments, with Nigeria and Egypt each accounting for 14% of regional shipments [1] - Nigeria's market saw a remarkable 29% increase, attributed to the stabilization of the Naira and a refreshed lineup of models priced below $150, stimulating upgrade demand [1] - Egypt's growth of 19% was primarily fueled by a strong mid-range market, with brands aggressively targeting the $150 to $250 price segment [1] Regional Highlights - South Africa led the growth with a 31% increase, supported by the rise of prepaid models in the low and mid-range markets, new model launches, and increased retail promotions [2] - Kenya experienced a 17% growth, driven by the rising penetration of installment payment plans, which boosted demand for entry-level models [2] Brand Performance - Omdia reported that shipments of smartphones priced below $100 surged by 57%, while those above $500 grew by 52%, indicating a dual growth trend in the market [4] - Transsion's shipments increased by 25%, supported by strong demand in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, with popular models like TECNO's Camon40 and Infinix's Hot60 contributing to this growth [4] - Samsung maintained a presence in the high-end market with its Galaxy S24 series, but overall growth was modest at 5%, as consumers favored value models [4] Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi is accelerating its long-term strategy in Africa, planning to enter over 15 new markets and opening its first self-operated flagship store in Morocco, with strong sales in models priced below $150 [8] - OPPO is solidifying its market position in North Africa, focusing on Egypt, while Honor is achieving steady growth in South Africa through competitive models like Honor 200 Lite [8] Future Outlook - Despite the current growth, Omdia's analyst warns of a potential 6% decline in the African smartphone market in 2026 due to rising supply-side pressures, including increased BOM costs and currency weaknesses [8] - These pressures are expected to elevate average selling prices, particularly in the $80 to $150 range, posing new payment challenges for consumers [8]