Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey indicates that Walmart's subscription service "Walmart+" is expected to maintain a strong user base near historical peaks by May 2025, contributing positively to the company's recurring sales and profit margins [1][4]. Group 1: Membership Growth - As of April 2025, Walmart+ membership reached approximately 27.3 million, marking a significant increase and representing about 18% of U.S. households when adjusted for survey response bias [2][4]. - The membership count for May 2025 is projected to remain high at around 23.4 million, with an adjusted figure of approximately 15.2 million, reflecting a month-over-month decrease but a year-over-year increase of about 29% when using a rolling three-month basis [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The growth of Walmart+ is expected to drive recurring sales and enhance profit margins, reinforcing Walmart's "alternative profit" growth strategy [1][5]. - Walmart's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with a year-to-date increase of over 10%, contrasting with the S&P 500's less than 1% gain [2]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Walmart has transformed from a traditional retailer to a significant player in e-commerce and supply chain innovation, leveraging its strong supply chain and extensive consumer goods network [5]. - The Walmart+ program has successfully attracted middle and high-income consumers, fostering customer loyalty and increasing the frequency of repeat purchases [4][5].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey indicates that Walmart's subscription service "Walmart+" is expected to maintain a user base close to historical peaks by May 2025, following a strong penetration rate achieved in April [1] - This trend is anticipated to drive growth in Walmart's recurring sales and high-profit margin expectations, enhancing the profitability outlook for the company's "alternative profit" growth business [1] - Based on the momentum of Walmart+ memberships and their contribution to earnings, Morgan Stanley's stock analyst team maintains an "overweight" rating on Walmart's stock, with a 12-month target price set at $115, compared to Walmart's recent stock price of approximately $99 [1]