Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the bidding results for duty-free shops at Shanghai and Beijing airports are expected to be announced this month, with current operations managed by Sunrise, a company 51% owned by China Duty Free Group [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Impact - For the first half of this year, offline sales at Shanghai Airport are projected to contribute approximately 10% to China Duty Free's revenue and 0.7% to its net profit, while the contribution from Beijing Airport is expected to be in the low single digits [1] Stock Price Projections - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 60 for China Duty Free's H-shares and CNY 66 for its A-shares, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Scenario Analysis - The base case scenario assumes China Duty Free secures one contract at each airport and utilizes its wholly-owned duty-free licenses, leading to stable stock prices - If China Duty Free secures contracts at both airports while using both its own licenses and Sunrise's licenses, stock prices may rise by 5% to 10% - Conversely, if Sunrise secures contracts at both airports, China Duty Free's stock could decline by 5% to 10% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The board of directors of RiShang Duty Free (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is in a dispute regarding participation in the Shanghai airport duty-free project bidding, with the majority of directors opposing the bid, potentially leading to the company's exit from the bidding process [1][3]. Group 1: Company Background - RiShang Shanghai was established in June 1999 and is the first foreign enterprise to operate airport duty-free shops in China [3]. - In 2018, China National Duty Free Group (CNDG) acquired a 51% stake in RiShang Shanghai for 1.505 billion yuan, becoming the controlling shareholder [3]. - The acquisition aimed to enhance CNDG's presence in the Shanghai airport duty-free market and improve procurement scale and economic efficiency [3]. Group 2: Current Situation - The bidding for duty-free operations at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports started on November 17 and will close on December 9 [1]. - CNDG currently holds a controlling stake in RiShang Duty Free (China) Co., Ltd., and the agreement stipulates that all duty-free operations in Shanghai and Beijing airports will be conducted through RiShang [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - Investors speculate that the current situation reflects a shift in the competitive landscape of airport duty-free channels in China, with CNDG potentially opting to bid directly rather than through its subsidiary [5]. - The bidding process is divided into three segments, and if RiShang is excluded, CNDG could secure a bid for one of the segments [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - CNDG reported a revenue of 39.862 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a decrease of 7.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.052 billion yuan, down 22.13% [6]. - The company’s performance has been declining, with a revenue drop of 9.96% in the first half of the year and a significant decline in net profit [6]. - CNDG's stock price has fallen over 70% from its peak market value of 740 billion yuan in 2021, closing at 81.02 yuan per share on December 5 [6].