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大气不稳定性越强,可预报性就越低
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-04 14:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to global warming, highlighting the challenges in accurately predicting extreme rainfall and the need for improved early warning systems [1][7]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Events - Recent extreme weather events include high temperatures in Wuhan and heavy rainfall in Beijing, prompting various weather warnings [1]. - The article emphasizes that global warming is leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and heatwaves [7]. Group 2: Challenges in Weather Prediction - Accurate prediction of extreme rainfall remains difficult due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and limitations in current observation systems and weather prediction models [2][3]. - A study on the 2021 Zhengzhou heavy rainfall revealed that even with advanced scientific methods, predicting the exact timing and location of extreme rainfall remains a challenge [2]. Group 3: Atmospheric Circulation and Its Impact - Atmospheric circulation significantly influences the distribution and intensity of precipitation, with specific patterns linked to extreme rainfall events in regions like Beijing [4]. - Historical data indicates that certain atmospheric circulation types have repeatedly led to extreme rainfall in the Beijing area [4]. Group 4: Broader Implications of Climate Change - Global warming is causing shifts in atmospheric circulation, leading to changes in precipitation patterns, such as the northward movement of the subtropical high-pressure system [7]. - The widening of the tropics and increased atmospheric instability due to global warming may result in more intense extreme weather events [7]. Group 5: Need for Improved Early Warning Systems - The article stresses the importance of a comprehensive early warning system that involves collaboration across various sectors, including government, research institutions, media, and the public [9][10]. - Effective communication and trust in warning systems are crucial, as false alarms can lead to public skepticism [10]. Group 6: Urban Planning and Adaptation - Current urban infrastructure often relies on historical data for rainfall predictions, which may not be sufficient under changing climate conditions [12]. - There is a need for cities to adapt their planning and infrastructure to account for increased rainfall intensity due to climate change, emphasizing the importance of both hardware and software solutions in urban management [12].