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大气不稳定性越强,可预报性就越低
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-04 14:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to global warming, highlighting the challenges in accurately predicting extreme rainfall and the need for improved early warning systems [1][7]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Events - Recent extreme weather events include high temperatures in Wuhan and heavy rainfall in Beijing, prompting various weather warnings [1]. - The article emphasizes that global warming is leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and heatwaves [7]. Group 2: Challenges in Weather Prediction - Accurate prediction of extreme rainfall remains difficult due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and limitations in current observation systems and weather prediction models [2][3]. - A study on the 2021 Zhengzhou heavy rainfall revealed that even with advanced scientific methods, predicting the exact timing and location of extreme rainfall remains a challenge [2]. Group 3: Atmospheric Circulation and Its Impact - Atmospheric circulation significantly influences the distribution and intensity of precipitation, with specific patterns linked to extreme rainfall events in regions like Beijing [4]. - Historical data indicates that certain atmospheric circulation types have repeatedly led to extreme rainfall in the Beijing area [4]. Group 4: Broader Implications of Climate Change - Global warming is causing shifts in atmospheric circulation, leading to changes in precipitation patterns, such as the northward movement of the subtropical high-pressure system [7]. - The widening of the tropics and increased atmospheric instability due to global warming may result in more intense extreme weather events [7]. Group 5: Need for Improved Early Warning Systems - The article stresses the importance of a comprehensive early warning system that involves collaboration across various sectors, including government, research institutions, media, and the public [9][10]. - Effective communication and trust in warning systems are crucial, as false alarms can lead to public skepticism [10]. Group 6: Urban Planning and Adaptation - Current urban infrastructure often relies on historical data for rainfall predictions, which may not be sufficient under changing climate conditions [12]. - There is a need for cities to adapt their planning and infrastructure to account for increased rainfall intensity due to climate change, emphasizing the importance of both hardware and software solutions in urban management [12].
全球变暖下极端降雨预报难在哪?北大物理学院大气与海洋科学系教授张庆红谈预警链如何扛住“大考”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-02 09:24
Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to global warming, highlighting recent heavy rainfall in Beijing and its implications for disaster preparedness and response [1][9] - Zhang Qinghong, a professor at Peking University, emphasizes the challenges in accurately predicting extreme precipitation events, particularly those caused by small-scale convective systems [3][4] - The article notes that the predictability of extreme rainfall is constrained by current observational systems and weather prediction models, which are affected by the non-linear dynamics of weather systems [4][11] Group 2 - The T8 atmospheric circulation pattern is identified as a significant factor influencing summer rainfall in northern China, with historical data showing its correlation with extreme precipitation events [7][8] - The article mentions that the northward shift of the subtropical high-pressure system may lead to changes in rainfall patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, affecting regions like Beijing [9][10] - Zhang advocates for a collaborative approach to weather warning systems, involving government, research institutions, media, and the public to enhance the effectiveness of early warning mechanisms [13][15] Group 3 - The article highlights the need for urban infrastructure to adapt to increasing extreme weather events, suggesting that current designs based on historical data may not suffice [16][17] - Public participation in weather observation and reporting is emphasized as crucial for improving disaster response and enhancing predictive models [16][19] - The impact of hail on agriculture and renewable energy infrastructure is discussed, with a call for better understanding of hail formation processes to improve forecasting capabilities [17][19]