Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions between Pakistan and India could potentially lead to a nuclear conflict if not managed properly [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Military Tensions** - Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif stated that continued escalation by India may result in nuclear war [1] - India's Defense Minister Singh expressed a desire to avoid escalation but indicated that India would not back down if Pakistan takes action [1] - **Recent Incidents** - Reports from Lahore, Pakistan, indicated the sound of anti-aircraft fire and air raid alerts, suggesting heightened military readiness [1] - A drone was shot down and crashed, and small-scale skirmishes occurred in the Kashmir region [1]

Group 1 - President Putin stated that Russia has sufficient strength and means to conclude the special military operation that began in 2022 in a way that meets Russia's requirements [1] - Putin emphasized that there is no need for Russia to use nuclear weapons in the conflict, indicating a desire to avoid escalation [3] - The Russian government announced a ceasefire from May 8 to May 11 during the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, expecting Ukraine to reciprocate [3][4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected the ceasefire proposal, insisting on a minimum of 30 days for any ceasefire to allow for meaningful diplomatic opportunities [4] - Zelensky expressed skepticism about Russia's commitment to the ceasefire, citing recent military actions and attacks by Russian forces [4] - Former U.S. President Trump indicated uncertainty about the U.S. role in mediating the conflict, suggesting that there may be a point where the U.S. would withdraw from negotiations if no progress is made [5]

金十整理：印巴冲突局势梳理——从"恐袭"到"水资源武器化" 开战风险已上升 一、导火索 4月22日，印控克什米尔发生一起恐怖袭击，造成25名印度公民和1名尼泊尔公民死亡。 二、印度指控与制裁 1. 印度认定袭击由巴基斯坦支持的武装组织策划。 2. 4月23日，印度宣布多项针对巴基斯坦的措施，包括： ①暂停《印度河河水条约》：首次单方面切断巴基斯坦80%的农业用水，威胁其经济命脉。 ②关闭边境口岸：切断两国陆路交通，驱逐巴方外交官并限制公民入境。 ③军事戒备升级：印度总理莫迪中断外访，要求军队进入高度警戒状态。 ①经济与交通：对印关闭领空、暂停双边贸易、暂停并取消印度公民签证。 ②军事准备：部署兵力至克什米尔，加强边境巡逻，启动核威慑预案。 ③资源威胁：巴铁道部长警告将切断印度能源供应（如天然气管道），称"断水即宣战"。 四、军事动态与核风险 1. 局部冲突频发 ①海-印度试图通过航母优势压制巴方，巴方依托陆基导弹形成非对称威慑。 ②陆-印军称印巴军队28日夜至29日连续第五晚在克什米尔地区实控线一带交火。 三、巴方回应 1. 否认与反指控：强调印度指控毫无根据，呼吁成立国际委员会独立调查，指责印媒"诋毁巴基斯 ...