检测行业结构转型升级

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检测服务:结构转型升级,竞争格局拐点或临近
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 09:32
Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth phase for the testing industry, with a revenue forecast of 487.6 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [6][20]. Core Insights - The testing industry is entering a phase of steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.0% from 2022 to 2024, following a significant slowdown in growth due to various economic pressures [6][20]. - The number of testing institutions is projected to decline for the first time in nearly 20 years, suggesting a potential turning point in the competitive landscape [6][21]. - The focus of demand is shifting towards technology, manufacturing, high-end consumer goods, biomedicine, and software information testing, indicating a structural transformation in the industry [7][29]. Summary by Sections Space - The total revenue for national testing institutions is expected to reach 487.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, down from 9.2% in 2023 [6][20]. - The industry has experienced a significant slowdown in growth due to pressures in traditional sectors like environmental and food testing, as well as real estate [6][20]. Field - The revenue share of ten advanced industries in testing services has increased from 21.4% to 26.3% from 2017 to 2024, while traditional industries have seen a slight decline [7][29]. Structure - By the end of 2024, private testing institutions are expected to number 33,900, accounting for 63.9% of the total, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.2% over the past decade [10][29]. Efficiency - The per capita output value in the testing service industry is projected to rise to 313,000 yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [9][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on comprehensive testing leaders with clear internal operational turning points, particularly in high-end manufacturing and technology research testing [11][29]. - Companies to watch include Su Shi Testing, Huace Testing, and Xince Standards, among others, which are positioned to benefit from demand recovery and operational improvements [11][29].