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【建投年报】断裂与重生:全球农业供给过剩时代
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 23:19
Core Viewpoint - The global agricultural sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with supply growth outpacing demand growth due to geopolitical factors and domestic policies in major producing countries [3][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Supply Dynamics - Countries like Russia and Brazil are seizing opportunities to expand agricultural production, leading to a higher growth rate in supply compared to demand [3]. - The U.S. and Canada are focusing on strategic self-sufficiency in agricultural products, heavily relying on subsidy policies to support new demand [3][5]. - The overall agricultural production for 2025 is expected to show weakness, with many primary agricultural products experiencing seasonal price fluctuations [5]. Group 2: Crop Production Trends - The production of key crops such as corn, soybeans, and sugar is projected to fluctuate, with corn production expected to reach 1,286.225 million tons by 2025/2026, reflecting a 20.55% increase over ten years [4]. - Sugar production is forecasted to face significant oversupply, with global sugar production expected to reach 193 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 2.745 million tons by 2025/2026 [12][11]. Group 3: Market Strategies and Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of cross-commodity research to understand market dynamics and identify investment opportunities, particularly in undervalued commodities like sugar and corn [5][9]. - The U.S. biofuel policy is highlighted as a significant factor influencing agricultural demand, with differing approaches between the U.S. and Indonesia impacting market dynamics [5][6]. Group 4: Livestock and Feed Demand - The livestock sector is facing challenges with capacity reduction, as companies are adopting debt and cost-cutting strategies to expand market share [8]. - Feed demand is projected to stabilize in 2025, despite a decline in pig feed due to ongoing losses in the pig farming sector [37][38]. - The overall feed demand is expected to decrease by approximately 3% in 2026, with significant implications for corn and other feed grains [38][41].