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农林牧渔行业点评报告:8月USDA农产品报告上调全球玉米、水稻产量,下调大豆、小麦产量
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-15 09:44
农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 15 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期,后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.14 《政策强催化与基本面共振渐成,生 猪低位积极布局 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《集团降重叠加二育出栏,全国猪价 承压—行业周报》-2025.8.3 8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉米、水稻产量,下 调大豆、小麦产量 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽(分析师) 朱本伦(联系人) chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520030001 玉米:2025/2026 年全球产量、消费量环比上调 (1)USDA 上调全球玉米产量。USDA(美国农业部)发布 8 月全球农产品 2025/2026 年供需预测报告,与 7 月预测报告相比,8 月报告上调玉米产量,主 要系美国、乌克兰玉米收获面积扩大。(2)供需情况:产量方面,2025/2026 年 全球玉米产量环比调增 2492 万吨至 12.89 亿吨。贸易方面,2025/2026 年出口量 环比调增 505 万吨至 2.01 亿吨。消费量 ...
美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告数据分析专题:中国再度下调2026年牛肉产量,牛价景气预计向上-20250815
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-15 08:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]
郑棉延续震荡,纸浆冲高回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:05
Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]
美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告数据分析专题:豆供需报告整体中性,海内外肉牛及原奶景气有望共振-20250616
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-16 14:31
种植链农产品:全球大豆上半年丰产预估维持,底部看好大周期布局。 1)玉米:国内供需平衡趋于收紧,玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA6 月 供需报告供需报告预计 25/26 产季全球玉米产量较 5 月预估调增 1 百万 吨(约+0.08%),总使用量较 5 月预估调增 1.4 百万吨(约+0.11%), 最终全球期末库销比较 5 月预估环比调减 0.23pcts 至 21.57%;中国玉 米 25/26 产季供需预估环比持平,预计中国期末库销比同比减少 5.97pcts 至 56.75%。目前国内玉米价格已处于历史周期底部位置,中 长期供需平衡趋于收紧,后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2)大豆:6 月 USDA 预估全球 25/26 期末库存略增,期末库销比预估同比减 少。USDA6 月供需报告 25/26 产季全球大豆产量环比 5 月预估持平,总 使用量环比调增 10 万吨(约+0.02%),最终全球期末库存环比调增 97 万吨(约+0.78%),全球期末库销比同比调减 0.81pcts、环比调增 0.22pcts 至 29.54%。总体 2025 上半年全球大豆供应充裕,考虑到贸易 政策扰动影响,预计价格维持底 ...