Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season provides some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to factors such as weak exports and high inventory. However, if Indonesian production decreases, the situation may reverse, and the strategy is to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the 2025/26 season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are negative factors such as weak downstream demand and high domestic production, some negative news has been digested [16][17]. - Egg prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with near - term contracts focusing on premium/discount and far - term contracts reflecting de - capacity expectations. In the medium term, as demand weakens, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [18][19]. - Hog prices are expected to be bearish before the Spring Festival due to oversupply. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to concerns about US soybean demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, while the US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [2]. - **Strategy View**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. As the de - stocking season begins, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased compared to the same period last month, and the production situation was mixed. The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to be volatile and weak in the near term. On Thursday, domestic oil prices declined. Domestic spot basis prices were stable [6]. - **Strategy View**: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed prices, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of high inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season. In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. The production of Indian sugar mills has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the new season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year. The USDA monthly report showed an increase in global cotton production in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was low, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: Due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production, there is selling - hedging pressure. However, some negative news has been digested, and cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: On the previous day, national egg prices were stable or declined. The market supply was generally sufficient, and the terminal market digestion speed was partly stable and partly slowed down. It is expected that today's egg prices will be weakly stable with a few declines [18]. - **Strategy View**: The egg futures market has rebounded in advance, but the spot price increase has not met expectations, resulting in an enlarged premium. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium term, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [19]. Hogs - **Market Information**: On the previous day, domestic hog prices mainly increased, with some areas stable or slightly decreased. The market supply was normal, but demand was limited, and slaughter enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. It is expected that today's hog prices may be stable or decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: The current hog price rebound is driven by frozen product storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will lead to a bearish pattern before the Spring Festival. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [3][5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, and production showed a mixed trend. Palm oil is expected to trade sideways, and a shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [7][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [11][12]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [14][15]. - Egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [17][18]. - Pig prices were half stable and half falling. The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans rose sharply, and Brazilian soybean premiums increased by 4 - 5 cents per bushel. Domestic soybean meal spot prices decreased slightly by 20 yuan/ton, and trading and pick - up were good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 234.92 tons, up from 207.76 tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the next two weeks, rainfall is expected to resume in the under - rained areas of the Brazilian soybean - growing region, and the planting progress has reached 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the previous month, and the first 15 days saw a 10% decrease. Production showed a mixed trend. On Monday, domestic palm oil prices traded sideways, with stable spot basis [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is expected to trade sideways. A shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices also decreased. In October, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased compared to the September forecast. As of November 13, the cumulative cotton inspection in China increased year - on - year. The spinning mill operating rate increased slightly week - on - week but was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [14]. - **Strategy**: Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. Supply was sufficient, and market trading was inactive [17]. - **Strategy**: The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices were half stable and half falling. After continuous price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the US soybean monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped and then stabilized. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices also declined, with the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widening and the monthly spread of both showing a downward trend. The international soybean market is generally in a state of relatively loose supply, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure. The market's focus on soybean meal may be on the repair of crushing profit, and in the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and the supply side still faces pressure [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the release of the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped but then stabilized due to optimistic expectations for subsequent exports. The price of Brazilian soybeans rebounded slightly. The domestic soybean meal price declined due to the downward pressure from the cost side and the full reflection of previous good news. Rapeseed meal also declined, affected by the fall of soybean meal and its own loose supply - demand situation. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widened, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The monthly supply - demand report for US soybeans is generally positive, but the price increase space is limited. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future trends will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply has an increasing impact, with Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent crushing and export have increased. The overall international soybean market supply is relatively loose [4] - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and increased提货量. The inventory remains high. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the supply of rapeseed is low, and the supply pressure still exists [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation has recently stabilized. The end of the US government shutdown and the Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals to the market, causing the US soybean futures price to rise. The resumption of the soybean export qualifications of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - economic factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean monthly supply - demand report is positive, but the fundamental support is limited. Without significant improvement in exports, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and will generally fluctuate. The focus of the soybean meal market may be on the repair of crushing profit. In the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Soybean meal outperforms rapeseed meal, and the monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to decline [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to wait and see in the short term - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [10]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - **Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - **CFTC Positions**: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory**: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - **Import Supply: Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing**: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - **Cost, Income and Breeding Profit**: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply of soybeans is expected to remain loose in the medium term, and the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. - For oils and fats, supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increasing demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreasing export volume expectations of Indonesia, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term [5][6][7]. - For sugar, considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the overall outlook is bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, both domestic and international factors suggest that the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [16][17][18]. - For pigs, due to factors such as excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly. The USDA report was postponed due to the government shutdown. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal futures were stable, and the spot price rose slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume from October 4th to 10th was 1.357 million tons. As of October 2nd, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium term, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies, while in the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which will increase the demand for palm - based biofuels. Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September might decrease by 2.5% compared to August. On Thursday, domestic oils and fats rose significantly, mainly stimulated by the news of Indonesia's B50 plan [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories, increasing demand, and decreasing export volume expectations, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a stable decline [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,528 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. In September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The purchase price of seed cotton was lower than last year, and the downstream demand was weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic demand and high export pressure in the US, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price generally declined. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve significantly, and the market confidence is low [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The slaughter enterprises had the intention to lower the purchase price, and the pig price was expected to continue to decline slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [21].

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The August report adjusts global production forecasts for 2025/2026, increasing corn and rice production while decreasing soybean and wheat production [12] - The USDA report indicates that the increase in global corn production is due to expanded harvesting areas in the US and Ukraine, while the decrease in soybean production is attributed to reduced harvesting areas in the US and lower yields in the EU and Serbia [12][54] - The report highlights a general trend of fluctuating agricultural commodity prices, with specific attention to the impacts of weather and geopolitical factors on production and pricing [12][54] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The global corn production for 2025/2026 is adjusted upward by 24.92 million tons to 128.9 million tons, with exports increased by 5.05 million tons to 20.1 million tons [13][14] - Domestic consumption is projected to rise by 13.39 million tons to 128.9 million tons, while ending stocks are expected to increase by 10.46 million tons to 28.3 million tons [13][14] Soybean - The global soybean production for 2025/2026 is adjusted downward by 1.29 million tons to 42.6 million tons, with exports decreased by 190,000 tons to 18.7 million tons [26][27] - Domestic consumption is expected to decrease by 70,000 tons to 42.5 million tons, and ending stocks are projected to decline by 1.17 million tons to 12.5 million tons [26][27] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/2026 is adjusted downward by 1.65 million tons to 80.7 million tons, with feed consumption reduced by 1.28 million tons to 15.5 million tons [36][39] - Domestic consumption is expected to decrease by 1.09 million tons to 81 million tons, while ending stocks are projected to decline by 1.44 million tons to 26 million tons [36][39] Rice - The global rice production for 2025/2026 is adjusted upward by 190,000 tons to 54.1 million tons, with consumption increased by 350,000 tons to 54.2 million tons [54][55] - Ending stocks are expected to decrease by 58,000 tons to 18.7 million tons, reflecting a tighter supply situation [54][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5][10][11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a positive cycle, particularly in beef and dairy markets, with potential upward price movements in 2025 [5][8][10] - The report highlights a generally neutral outlook for soybean supply and demand, with expectations of price stability in the near term [2][28] - The overall supply of corn is tightening, leading to a forecast of moderate price increases [1][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA June report estimates a global corn production increase of 1 million tons (approximately +0.08%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.4 million tons (approximately +0.11%) [1][18] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.94% to 275.24 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.23 percentage points to 21.57% [18][19] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [21][22] Soybeans - The USDA June report indicates that global soybean production for the 25/26 season remains unchanged from May estimates, with a slight increase in total usage by 100,000 tons (approximately +0.02%) [2][28] - The final global ending stocks are projected to increase by 970,000 tons (approximately +0.78%) to 125.3 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2][29] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain stable at the bottom of the market in the first half of 2025 [30][37] Wheat - The USDA June report forecasts a global wheat production increase of 70,000 tons (approximately +0.01%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.8 million tons (approximately +0.22%) [3][45] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 2.97 million tons (approximately -1.12%) to 26.276 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.44 percentage points to 32.45% [3][45] - The wheat market is expected to remain in a loose supply-demand balance, with prices likely to stabilize at the bottom [3][45] Sugar - Short-term sugar imports are expected to increase, with market prices likely to remain weak due to ample supply [4][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Brazilian weather and sugar production progress, as well as potential geopolitical risks affecting supply [4][16] Cotton - The report indicates that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes, with a projected decrease in global production and demand [4][18] - The final stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease by 1.16 percentage points to 65.22%, indicating a loose supply-demand balance [4][18] Beef - The report predicts an upward trend in U.S. beef prices for 2026, with a significant reduction in supply expected [5][20] - Domestic beef prices are expected to remain strong despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [5][23] Dairy - The report suggests that the dairy market may experience a reversal in 2025, driven by reduced production and increased overseas consumption [8][25] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to supply constraints and reduced imports [8][27] Pork - The U.S. pork market is expected to see a slight increase in demand, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply growth [8][29] - Domestic breeding stock levels are expected to remain stable, supporting profitability in the pork sector [8][30] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is projected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand expected to improve [9][32] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are expected to weaken, allowing for a gradual recovery in supply [9][32] Eggs - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in egg supply starting in the second half of 2025, with overall supply expected to remain ample [9][36] - Domestic egg prices are projected to face downward pressure due to high supply levels [9][37]