1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural sector showed a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, with different trends and influencing factors for each sub - industry [1] - Different agricultural products have different outlooks, such as some are expected to oscillate, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to strengthen [1][2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Futures prices declined due to light pre - holiday spot trading and capital flight. Supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is ample. Palm oil is about to enter the destocking stage. Demand depends on biodiesel policies and export performance. It is recommended to consider buying hedging at low callback levels [1][5][6] - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by export expectations and South American weather, and are operating in the range of 1130 - 1160. Domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. After the festival, prices are expected to be weak. It is not recommended to chase up prices before the festival [7] - **Corn**: Affected by industry news and sentiment, futures are strongly volatile. After the festival, focus on traders' delivery and inventory replenishment rhythms [9] - **Pigs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to be weak before and after the Spring Festival. The industry is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and prices may pick up in the second half of the year [10] - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates slowly before the festival, maintaining an upward trend. The current trading logic is mainly macro - influenced, and the fundamentals are relatively weak but the expectations are good. The market is expected to remain volatile [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market maintains a high - level range - bound pattern. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium term [15] - **Cotton**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The price has rebounded slightly. After the festival, with the arrival of the peak demand season, the price may strengthen. In the long - term, it is expected to be volatile and strong [16] - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the expected global supply surplus in the new sugar - making season [17] - **Pulp**: The spot price is almost stagnant, and the futures fluctuate independently. The supply - demand is weak before the festival and is expected to improve after the festival. The futures are expected to be volatile [18] - **Double - Glue Paper**: The market is winding down at the end of the year, and the price rebounds with reduced positions. Before the festival, the trading is weak, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term and volatile and weak in the range [19] - **Logs**: The pre - holiday trading is basically stagnant. The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, and there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term without new positive factors [21] 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - **Oils and Fats**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Protein Meal**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Corn and Starch**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Pigs**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Sugar**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Pulp and Double - Glue Paper**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Logs**: Not provided with specific data analysis content 3.3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities all showed an upward trend on February 12, 2026. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.49%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.53%, the industrial products index increased by 0.42%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.29%. The agricultural product index increased by 0.44% on that day, with a 0.56% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.71% change in the past month, and a 0.20% increase since the beginning of the year [182][183]

农产品日报 | 2026-02-03 棉价内强外弱，郑糖低位整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14575元/吨，较前一日变动-95元/吨，幅度-0.65%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15806元/吨，较前一日变动-134元/吨，现货基差CF05+1231，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨， 较前一日变动-113元/吨，现货基差CF05+1495，较前一日变动-18。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，1月23日至1月29日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.44万吨，78.1% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为2.14万吨，皮马棉为0.30万吨。至同期，累计分级检验296.18 万吨，81.8%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为287.90万吨，皮马棉为8.28万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，最新一周美棉出口签约再度转弱，终 端需求受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看， 美棉已处于低估 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, the corn futures first rose and then declined, the live hog futures had small gains and large losses, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term. The spot prices of corn, live hogs, and eggs also showed different trends [7][8]. - For corn, the short - term spot may fluctuate weakly, the medium - term maintains a wide - range trading idea, and the long - term pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [16]. - For live hogs, the first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall, the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point, and the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. - For eggs, the short - term price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking, the medium - term may face a supply - demand imbalance after the Spring Festival, and the long - term price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Review - **Spot Review**: In January, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly stronger; the live hog price first rose and then declined; the egg price continued to rise supported by consumption [7]. - **Futures Review**: In January, the corn futures led the spot price and rose in shock; the live hog futures first rose and then fell, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8]. - **Strategy Review**: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs were verified by the market [9]. 3.2 Corn Variety - **Macro Logic**: Internationally, the macro - drive is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [13]. - **Industry Logic**: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, focusing on policies such as reserve purchases, directional rice/imported corn auctions, and grain import policies [13]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 period has turned to basic balance. In February 2026, the spot market may become lighter. Supply is affected by international and domestic factors, and demand is mainly from the breeding and deep - processing industries [14][15]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the spot may fluctuate weakly; medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea; long - term, focus on policy orientation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, the market is weak, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts have support levels; medium - and long - term, maintain an interval trading idea [17]. 3.3 Live Hog Variety - **Macro Logic**: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy orientation [43]. - **Industry Logic**: The breeding market structure may change under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies. The reduction of the sow inventory of leading group enterprises has basically been achieved, and the large - scale decline of the sow inventory in the next few months is unlikely [43]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply is affected by factors such as sow inventory, new - born piglets, production efficiency, and slaughter weight; demand is weak after the Spring Festival [44]. - **Market View**: The first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall; the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point; the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. 3.4 Egg Variety - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and in the second half of the year, pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices [69]. - **Industry Logic**: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, and the scale rate is expected to increase [70]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The current capacity reduction is less than expected, and it is difficult to start a cycle - type market driven by over - culling [71]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking; medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance may intensify after the Spring Festival; long - term, the price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain a short - selling idea for near - term contracts; medium - and long - term, the capacity may be difficult to clear effectively in the first quarter, and breeding enterprises are recommended to lock in profits through far - term contracts [73].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn, wheat, and soybean production forecasts for January 2026, indicating an increase in supply and a tightening of the global supply-demand gap for corn [7][36] - The report highlights that the domestic market is currently active due to the traditional peak selling season for corn, with strong price support expected [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 65.15 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 13.05 million tons [14] - Global corn consumption is projected at 1.3 billion tons, up 48.21 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.62 million tons [14] - The ending stock for global corn is estimated at 290.91 million tons, a decrease of 3.79 million tons from 2024/25, but an increase of 11.76 million tons month-on-month [14] - The corn stock-to-use ratio is 19.3%, down 1.16 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.75 percentage points month-on-month [14] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, an increase of 41.36 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 4.36 million tons [36] - Global wheat consumption is projected at 823.91 million tons, up 13.05 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.94 million tons [36] - The ending stock for global wheat is estimated at 278.25 million tons, an increase of 18.25 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 3.38 million tons [36] - The wheat stock-to-use ratio is 26.7%, up 1.20 percentage points from 2024/25 and up 0.27 percentage points month-on-month [36] Soybeans - Global soybean production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.47 million tons from 2024/25, but with a month-on-month increase of 3.14 million tons [6] - Global soybean consumption is projected at 423 million tons, up 9.63 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.29 million tons [6] - The ending stock for global soybeans is estimated at 124 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 2.04 million tons [6] - The soybean stock-to-use ratio is 20.4%, down 0.26 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.30 percentage points month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pig farming sector, recommending continued investment in this area due to low valuations and expected profitability [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pig prices to 13 CNY/kg, with self-breeding and self-raising operations achieving profitability for two consecutive weeks [4]. - The white feather breeding stock update for 2025 is projected at 1.5742 million sets, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [5]. - The pet food market in urban China is expected to reach 312.6 billion CNY in 2025, growing by 4.1% year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices have rebounded to 13 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.7%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has risen to 128.89 kg, with a decrease in the proportion of heavier pigs [4]. - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising operations has reached 43.35 CNY per head, marking a significant recovery since December 2025 [4]. - The report forecasts a new wave of price declines post-Spring Festival, indicating potential capacity reduction in the pig farming industry [4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather breeding stock update for 2025 is 1.5742 million sets, with 55% from self-breeding and 45% from imports. The price of yellow feather chicken has increased by 2.6% week-on-week [5]. - The average price of chicken products is reported at 9,250 CNY/ton, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [5]. Pet Industry - The urban pet market is projected to grow to 312.6 billion CNY in 2025, with dog and cat markets at 160.6 billion CNY and 152.0 billion CNY, respectively [6]. - The number of pet dogs and cats in urban areas is expected to reach 126.32 million, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [8]. - Pet food remains the primary consumption category, accounting for 53.7% of the market share, with a projected market size of approximately 167.9 billion CNY in 2025 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product sector is under pressure due to limited supply - demand improvement. For different products, the market conditions vary, and short - term and long - term trends need to be considered separately [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton. In December 2025, India's textile exports were 1.77 billion US dollars, down 1.62% year - on - year, while clothing exports increased to 1.504 billion US dollars, up 2.89% year - on - year. The total textile and clothing exports in December 2025 increased slightly by 0.40% to 3.274 billion US dollars. From April to December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 26.531 billion US dollars, slightly down 0.26% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the large - scale listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak, so short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the downward space is limited. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton season had a significant increase in production, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, downstream orders are weak, and the industrial chain inventory, especially the grey fabric inventory, has increased significantly. The annual supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - The strategy for cotton is neutral. In the short term, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] 3.2 Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (0.75%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,195 yuan/ton, unchanged. In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, up 26.6% from the same period in 2024. From April to December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative yield was 74.7 tons/hectare, down 4.6% from the same period in the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. In the short - term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar, but the global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season suppresses the market. In the long - term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi are fully operational, supply is seasonally increasing, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high [4] Strategy - The strategy for sugar is neutral. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, the domestic inventory pressure may not have peaked, and there is a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the sugar price should be treated with an idea of oscillating and bottom - building [6] 3.3 Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,000 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly organized. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation, the terminal effective demand was insufficient, and the raw material procurement of downstream paper mills was cautious, resulting in a long - term high inventory in domestic ports [7] Strategy - The strategy for pulp is neutral. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and the foreign - exchange price has increased, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The January 2026 USDA soybean and corn supply - demand reports are generally bearish. After the release of the reports, soybean prices dropped rapidly. The unexpected adjustments in export data and increases in inventory are the main bearish factors [1]. - The quarterly inventory data of soybeans and corn as of December 1, 2026 are also bearish [4][18]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean - **US 24/25 Season**: The residual value in the soybean balance sheet was adjusted from 32 to 23 million bushels, and the ending inventory increased from 316 million to 325 million bushels [2]. - **US 25/26 Season**: The planted and harvested areas increased by 100,000 acres each. The yield per acre remained at 53, and the total output increased from 4.253 billion to 4.262 billion bushels. The crush demand increased from 2.555 billion to 2.57 billion bushels, and the export target decreased from 1.635 billion to 1.575 billion bushels. The ending inventory increased from 290 million to 350 million bushels [2]. - **Global**: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's soybean output increased by 3 million tons to 178 million tons. The crush, domestic demand, and exports increased, and the ending inventory increased by 400,000 tons. Argentina's output remained at 48.5 million tons, and Paraguay's output remained at 11 million tons. The total output of the three major South American producers is expected to increase by 4.69 million tons year - on - year. China's imports and crush in the 25/26 season remained at 112 million tons and 108 million tons respectively. The global ending inventory increased from 122.37 million tons to 124.41 million tons [3]. - **Quarterly Inventory**: As of December 1, 2026, the US soybean quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than the market forecast of 3.25 billion bushels [4]. Corn - **US 24/25 Season**: The supply side remained unchanged. The feed & residual demand decreased by 12 million bushels, and the food, seed, & industrial demand decreased by 8 million bushels. The total demand decreased by 20 million bushels, and the ending inventory increased from 1.532 billion to 1.551 billion bushels [16]. - **US 25/26 Season**: The planted area increased from 98.7 million to 98.8 million acres, and the harvested area increased from 90 million to 91.3 million acres. The yield per acre increased from 186 to 186.5 bushels, and the total output increased from 16.752 billion to 17.021 billion bushels. The feed & residual demand increased by 100 million bushels, and the food, seed, & industrial demand decreased by 10 million bushels. The ending inventory increased from 2.029 billion to 2.227 billion bushels [16]. - **Global**: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's beginning inventory increased by 1.5 million tons, the output remained at 131 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 1.5 million tons. Argentina's beginning inventory increased by 300,000 tons, the output remained at 53 million tons, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. The outputs of Russia, South Africa, and Ukraine remained unchanged. The global ending inventory increased from 279.15 million tons to 290.91 million tons [17][18]. - **Quarterly Inventory**: As of December 1, 2026, the US corn quarterly inventory was 13.282 billion bushels, higher than the previous year's 12.075 billion bushels and the market forecast of 12.962 billion bushels [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views - Cotton: 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease with a slight increase in ending stocks; US cotton has inventory pressure in the short - term, but is in a low - valuation range in the long - term; domestic cotton production increases, demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward [2] - Sugar: 25/26 global sugar production is abundant with an excess situation; short - term decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted; long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic; domestic sugar supply pressure remains, and short - and medium - term prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, European demand improves, domestic demand is insufficient but shows marginal improvement; short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,035 yuan/ton yesterday, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous day; 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton; as of January 3, 2025/26 Brazilian cotton planting was 31.2% complete, up 6.1 percentage points from the previous period and 0.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated upward yesterday; globally, 25/26 cotton production and demand both decreased, and US cotton inventory pressure increased. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly, sales progress accelerated, demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bullish. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks should be watched out for [2] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,281 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous day; Guangxi Nanning sugar spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar and molasses in December, a 2.8% increase from December 2024 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated and closed higher yesterday; globally, 25/26 sugar production is abundant with an excess situation. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and supply pressure remains [3] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward, and short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,596 yuan/ton yesterday, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous day; Shandong Chilean silver star softwood pulp spot price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import wood pulp spot market was mainly strong with individual fluctuations [4] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices were narrowly sorted yesterday. Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European demand continues to improve, while domestic demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and downstream demand is expected to increase marginally [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand may show a mild recovery. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to Bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The downstream spindle capacity expansion has increased domestic cotton consumption. With high production and consumption expected in the new year and low cotton imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Considering the possible significant decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, the medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be bullish. However, short - term price increases driven by funds may lead to high - level corrections [2]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar market is facing downward pressure. Although the current valuation is low, the worst period of domestic pressure has not yet arrived, and there may be another bottom - seeking. However, the overall decline is expected to be limited, and the short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5]. - Pulp: Overseas supply disruptions continue, and the US dollar quotes are rising. With the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expected, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upward space depends on the actual improvement of demand and the digestion of port inventory [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,442 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 787; the national average price was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 960. - Market Information: As of December 18, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the expected annual export volume, and had shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01%. The CCI in India had cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, with 39% from Telangana. Converted to lint, it was about 998,000 tons [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small. In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory increased slightly. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, the short - term supply pressure was high, and global textile consumption was weak. The signing progress of US cotton exports was slow, and the ICE US cotton was expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, US cotton was in a low - valuation range, with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers [1]. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly. As the sales progress of new cotton accelerated, the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased. On the demand side, with the approaching of the two festivals, yarn mills and traders stocked up actively, but downstream orders declined, finished product sales slowed down, and inventory in the industrial chain, especially in the grey fabric segment, increased significantly, showing a marginal weakening trend [1]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5257 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 73; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 57. - Market Information: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year. As of mid - December 2025, Uttar Pradesh had produced 3.586 million tons of sugar, an increase of 306,000 tons from the same period last year. Maharashtra had 197 sugar mills in operation, with a sugar production of 4.861 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 62%. Karnataka's sugar production had also increased by about 12% compared with the same period last year [3]. Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: In the 25/26 season, global sugar production was abundant, and the global sugar market was in a definite surplus. In the short term, due to the accelerated harvest in Brazil, limited exports from India, and the just - started harvest in Thailand, the downward space of raw sugar was limited, but the surplus pattern restricted its rebound momentum, and there was no sign of a trend reversal in the short - to - medium - term. In the long - term, there were uncertainties in weather and the sugar - making ratio next year. Some institutions predicted a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area was expected to shrink, so the long - term sugar price should not be overly pessimistic [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: Domestic sugar production was expected to increase for the third consecutive year. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi had gradually started production, and the supply showed a seasonal increase. On the import side, the profit of out - of - quota imports from Brazil remained high, and imports increased in the second half of the year, increasing the supply pressure. However, the control policy on syrup had become stricter this year, and the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was expected to further decrease next year [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5530 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 60. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 355. - Market Information: The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with individual prices fluctuating. The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted slightly downward in a narrow range. Traders in the imported softwood pulp spot market were willing to sell but were reluctant to sell at low prices due to profit considerations, so most prices remained stable, with only individual grades in the Shandong market adjusting by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In the imported hardwood pulp spot market, traders were actively raising prices due to rising arrival costs and tight available supplies, with high - end prices in the Guangdong market rising by 50 yuan/ton. The imported unbleached pulp market was trading smoothly, with prices remaining stable. The price of imported chemimechanical pulp increased in some areas with slightly tight supplies, with prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong rising by 50 yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There had been continuous news of overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed its Crofton paper mill in British Columbia, Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a 650,000 - ton softwood pulp capacity temporarily shut down on December 15 and was expected to gradually resume production on January 7 next year. In addition, its subsidiary Finnforest was preparing for a major production cut at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7]. - Demand: In November, the wood pulp inventory at European ports continued to decline, and demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, and downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with low procurement willingness, resulting in high port inventory. However, port inventory had been declining in recent weeks, and the continuous expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year would create marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials, which might support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The m2605 soybean meal contract is in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The foreign market shows that the tight fundamentals of US soybeans in the new year still support the price of CBOT soybeans, but the expected high - yield of South American new crops suppresses its price. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient before the end of the year, and the supply gap in the first quarter is expected to be limited. The demand from the downstream feed and aquaculture industry still provides support, and the spot basis is expected to strengthen gradually with inventory digestion [3]. - The RM605 rapeseed meal contract is also in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Globally, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed in 2025/26 is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In the domestic market, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed increases the import cost, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the off - season of downstream aquaculture and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The recent continuous purchase of US soybeans by China and the limited guidance of the December USDA report suggest that the CBOT is expected to operate in the range of 1100 - 1150 cents. The USDA report shows that the estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 remains unchanged from November, and the production forecasts of Argentina and Brazil are also maintained. The US soybean price was weakly volatile this week, supported by China's purchase and affected by the neutral - bearish USDA report and the expected high - yield in South America [15][16]. - As of the week ending December 05, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.45 dollars per bushel, a 2.00% decrease from the previous week and a 13.95% increase from the same period last year. As of November 13, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 80.66 tons, and the export shipment was 155.28 tons, a 67% increase from the previous week and a 24% increase from the four - week average [17]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's soybean sowing is nearing completion, with a sowing progress of 90.3% as of December 6. Argentina's sowing progress is 4.7%, lagging behind last year by 53.8%. The La Nina phenomenon has appeared, and the expected precipitation in Argentina in the next two weeks is decreasing. The export volume of Brazilian soybeans in December is expected to reach 333 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal is expected to reach 188 tons [31][32][33]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 to reach 1.771238 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 561.31 tons or 3.3%, and the sowing area to reach 4893.56 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 158.95 million hectares or 3.4% [33]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The estimated yield of new Canadian rapeseed has further increased, and the export pressure persists, leading to a continued weakening of international rapeseed prices. In 2025/26, the global rapeseed production increased by 300 tons month - on - month and 2027 tons year - on - year, with a growth rate of 10.7%, mainly due to the yield increase in Canada and the EU. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio have reached recent highs [63][64]. - As of November 23, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 65% from the previous week to 9.95 tons. From August 1 to November 23, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 192.84 tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. The commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 137.43 tons [64]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In the short term, the state - reserve release rhythm affects market sentiment, but the near - term supply pressure limits the upward space of the market. The far - month contracts are still trading on the expectations of high - yield in South America and US soybean demand. China imported 810.7 tons of soybeans in November 2025, a decrease of 137.30 tons from October and a 13.32% increase from November 2024. In 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans from January to November was 10378.14 tons, a 6.89% increase year - on - year [76][77]. - The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in December 2025 is 904.8 tons, 800 tons in January 2026, and 400 tons in February. The estimated arrival of imported rapeseed at coastal areas in December 2025 is 12 tons, and the same amount is expected in January and February 2026 [78]. 3.5 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - This week, the startup rate of oil mills continued to decline, and rapeseed pressing basically stopped. As of December 5, the actual soybean pressing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 205.58 tons, a decrease of 14.50 tons from the previous week and 8.98 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual startup rate was 66.55%. The estimated pressing volume in the 50th week (December 6 - 12) is 221.16 tons, and the estimated startup rate is 60.84% [93][94]. - The rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons this week, with a startup rate of 0%. The estimated rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills next week is 0 tons, and the estimated startup rate is 0% [94]. 3.6 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans shows different trends for different origins and shipping periods. The soybean crushing profit also varies by contract and origin. The import cost and freight of soybeans from different regions such as Argentina, the US West Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and Brazil are presented in the report, and the data is updated daily [100][105]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the pressing profit of rapeseed are also provided, with daily - updated data [107]. 3.7 Inventory - The inventory of soybean meal at major national oil mills has slightly decreased, but the overall inventory pressure still needs to be digested. The rapeseed inventory has continued to decline. As of December 5, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 715.52 tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from the same period last year [107][108]. - The rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country totaled 47.08 tons, a decrease of 2.96 tons from the previous week [108]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The downstream procurement and sales have warmed up, with spot purchases mainly driven by rigid demand, and the far - month basis has seen some trading volume. As of December 11, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 33.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.73 tons. The spot trading volume was 3.45 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 58.09 tons. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 96.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.93 tons [122][123]. - The monthly feed production and prices of livestock and poultry feed, as well as the prices and breeding profits of livestock and poultry, are presented in the report, showing the downstream demand situation [128][134]. 3.9 Basis and Spread - The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and contracts is provided. The average spot - futures price difference in coastal main markets this week was 290 - 340 yuan per ton, an increase of 103 - 133 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of December 12, the basis of the May soybean meal contract in Rizhao was 305 yuan per ton, and the basis of the May rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 158 yuan per ton [143]. - The month - to - month and variety spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the spreads between the January, May, and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, are also presented in the report [174].