油运旺季行情
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中金:中东区域运力或加剧 油运旺季景气行情有望持续
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 08:29
Core Viewpoint - The shipping rates for oil have been on the rise since late August, driven by increased cargo from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to tighter capacity in the Middle East region [1][2] Supply Side Analysis - Current shipping rates reflect a tight supply of oil tankers, with the ship-to-cargo ratio in the Middle East reaching a historical low. The supply of vessels is expected to become even tighter as already booked ships cannot return in the short term [2][3] Demand Side Analysis - The peak oil consumption season in the Middle East has passed, but the impact of OPEC+ production increases on exports will continue. OPEC+ is expected to slightly increase production in October, and historically, winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere lasts for about three months, suggesting that demand for cargo may continue to increase [2][3] Long-term Factors - Ongoing sanctions against black ships are seen as a long-term driver for improving oil shipping supply and demand dynamics. The cumulative impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports is a significant variable pushing shipping rates higher [3] Investment Opportunities - The company maintains its profit forecasts, target prices, and valuations unchanged. Given the ongoing supply tightness and marginal demand improvement, there are favorable opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy (01138), China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975.SH) [4]