美以突袭伊朗，油运地缘期权有望加速兑 现 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 交通运输行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好（维持） 交通运输行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 尹嘉骐 执业证书编号：S0860525120006 yinjiaqi@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 美军突袭委内瑞拉，油运供需望继续改 善：——美国突袭委内瑞拉事件点评 2026-01-09 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 美以突袭伊朗，加剧地缘冲突。2026 年 2 月 28 日，美国以色列先后对伊朗发动的 军事打击，后续引发伊朗大规模报复，中东地区局势急剧升级。2024 年 12 月以 来，美国持续加强对伊朗影子船队的制裁力度，美伊矛盾升级或驱动美国对伊朗制 裁进一步升级。我们尝试推演油运市场未来可能发生的三种情景，但考虑到地缘政 治的复杂程度，无法完全覆盖。若从最终结果来看，我们认为，油运景气在当前中 东局势影响下或继续提升，油运地缘期权有望加速兑现。 ⚫ ...

板块市场回顾 上周（2026/2/21-2026/2/27）交运指数上涨 3.3%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.1%，跑赢大盘 2.2%，排名 14/29。交运子板 块中航运板块涨幅最大(+11.9%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-1.8%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（2 月 16 日-2 月 22 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 8.06 亿件，同比- 77.8%,环比-64.7%；累计投递量约 6.3 亿件，同比-83.7%,环比-81.1%。在监管底线较明确、反内卷思路延续的背景 下，行业价格大幅下探概率不高，同时考虑去年同期基数偏低，当前价格同比改善仍有望对利润端形成支撑，看好龙 头企业份额持续提升，关注中通快递，极兔海外市场保持较高成长持续看好。 物流：化工品价格看涨，看好化工物流。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4041 点，同比-8.1%，环比-持平。本 周对二甲苯（PX）开工率为 93.25%，环比持平，同比+1.9pct；甲醇开工率为 87.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比+11.9pct； 乙二醇开工率为 66.2%，环比+0.9%，同比+6.3pct。原油价格上涨化 ...

这轮有色资源品的轰轰烈烈行情历历在目。 逆全球化地缘主义掣肘出海+双碳管控，催生第二类稀缺资源： （1）战略性：一是中国具备全产业链和成本优势领域，成功攫取海外原料和下游出口两端利润，打造中国供给定 价权战略制造，如电解铝、化工&石化、油运等；二是美国部分高精尖产业，如民航、燃机、芯片等，基于关税 和地缘 【长江金属&大化工&交运-联合深度】资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？ 这轮有色资源品的轰轰烈烈行情历历在目。 逆全球化地缘主义掣肘出海+双碳管控，催生第二类稀缺资源： （1）战略性：一是中国具备全产业链和成本优势领域，成功攫取海外原料和下游出口两端利润，打造中国供给定 价权战略制造，如电解铝、化工&石化、油运等；二是美国部分高精尖产业，如民航、燃机、芯片等，基于关税 和地缘而成为战略资源。 （2）全球性：一是逆全球化下各国制造业回流和战略补库，边际抬升制造业需求韧性；二是降息范式下，金融流 动性传导至实体修复，大宗轮动周期为"有色-化工-原油"，后续空间值得期待。 （3）价格低位：相比屡创新高的有色资源，电解铝、化工、炼化和航空价格处于历史相对低位，构筑极强安全边 际，且供给被约束的冶炼制造，利润率显著低 ...

消息面上，春节假期期间，油运市场租金延续上行趋势。中东至中国航线期租等值收益上涨6150美元， 至157358美元/天，创下2020年4月28日以来新高；超大型油轮整体期租等值收益上涨4626美元，至 131914美元/天。 中信建投证券指出，国际油运行业整体运行态势向好。一是结构性供给格局持续优化，韩国长锦商船 （Sinokor）等头部航运企业采取"囤船惜售"策略，主动优化运力投放节奏，改变了传统淡季船东竞价 的市场惯例。二是国际制裁带来放大效应，影子船队运营规模在1月收缩，大量原油运输需求转向合规 超大型油轮，使得合规运力供给相对偏紧。三是运输需求表现超出市场预期，在中国战略性采购支撑 下，叠加亚洲炼厂逐步转向长途及合规原油货源，吨海里运输需求保持稳步增长。四是长航程与地缘因 素形成溢价支撑，中东至亚洲、美国墨西哥湾至亚洲等主干航线运价溢价有所扩大，部分航线运距相应 延长。 航运概念24日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，中远海能、招商轮船、招商南油等涨停，海油发展、中集集 团、中远海特等涨超5%。 ...

油运：预防节后上行风险致板块大涨（GS交运氢能，0212） 为什么轮船海能双板：（1）我们认为核心是本身机构持仓不高的情况下，市场为预防节后股价上行风险而入场或 加仓——之前1月中旬至下旬产业大佬对春节期间运价的乐观展望是8-10万，当时大家持怀疑态度，认为一旦节间 保持此运价，节后股价上行风险很大，现在12万的运价导致大家节间预期乐观。 （2）轮船昨天大三角航线定载价格11.15万创新高、传sinokor重 油运：预防节后上行风险致板块大涨（GS交运氢能，0212） 为什么轮船海能双板：（1）我们认为核心是本身机构持仓不高的情况下，市场为预防节后股价上行风险而入场或 加仓——之前1月中旬至下旬产业大佬对春节期间运价的乐观展望是8-10万，当时大家持怀疑态度，认为一旦节间 保持此运价，节后股价上行风险很大，现在12万的运价导致大家节间预期乐观。 （2）轮船昨天大三角航线定载价格11.15万创新高、传sinokor重新启动此前未能取得进展的船舶采购谈判、美派航 母也有催化，但可能不是当前时点最核心的驱动。 市场关注度反而比之前提升：一方面，之前部分以1000e为阶段顶，如今已突破；一方面，部分领导开始关注美 股 ...

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to enter a "super cycle" with high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, driven by strong demand and limited supply growth [1] - During the 2026 Spring Festival, ticket prices are anticipated to rise, supported by a 6% year-on-year increase in air travel volume in early February [1] - The airline industry is projected to achieve significant profitability in Q1 2026, with a favorable ticket pricing trend and a decrease in oil prices [1] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping sector is experiencing high freight rates due to geopolitical tensions and increased oil production, with freight rates remaining above $120,000 [2] - The sentiment among shipowners is optimistic, contributing to sustained high freight rates, and the sector is viewed as having a long-term bullish outlook [2] - The aging fleet of oil tankers is expected to maintain a rigid supply of compliant capacity, supporting demand growth in the oil shipping market [2] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is projected to see a recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% in parcel volume for 2025, despite a slowdown in December [3] - The industry is experiencing a narrowing decline in unit prices, with a 2% decrease in December, indicating a potential easing of competitive pressures [3] - The "anti-involution" trend in 2026 is expected to exceed expectations, leading to a gradual recovery in price levels and sustained improvement in profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) has seen its stock price increase by over 60% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 5.04% to HKD 16.06, reflecting strong market performance and investor interest [1] Group 1: Company Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy has undergone significant business restructuring, establishing an integrated operational model encompassing oil, gas, chemicals, and storage [1] - The core business of oil transportation has consistently contributed over 80% of the company's revenue for the past decade, with foreign trade crude oil and refined oil transportation being the main profit drivers [1] - As of September 2025, the company's fleet capacity distribution is projected to be 83.2% for oil tankers, 16.5% for LNG carriers, 0.3% for chemical tankers, and 0.1% for LPG carriers [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Guotai Junan Securities highlights a two-phase development leading to a "super bull market" in oil transportation. The first phase is characterized by geopolitical conflicts that have restructured global crude oil trade, increasing shipping distances and driving up oil transportation demand for over three years [1] - The second phase is marked by a global increase in crude oil production, further boosting oil transportation demand [1] - Oil transportation rates have surged since September and are expected to remain high, with tanker profits projected to reach a ten-year high in Q4 2025 and for the entire year [1] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the oil transportation market will continue to exceed expectations, with potential benefits from falling oil prices [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil transportation industry, specifically the dynamics surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations and geopolitical tensions affecting freight rates [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - The Clarkson VLCC TD3C-TCE index reported a rate of $118,000 per day, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [1][2]. - The Middle East to China route maintained a freight rate of $127,000 per day, showing no change week-on-week, indicating sustained high rates in the market [1][2]. - The completion of cargo bookings for mid-February on the Middle East route has led to a gradual tightening of available shipping capacity as lower-tier capacity is being absorbed [1][2]. - Geopolitical risks are rising, which has positively influenced market sentiment and freight rates [1][2]. U.S.-Iran Negotiation Insights - As of February 6, the U.S.-Iran negotiations have not reached a consensus, leaving the geopolitical situation complex [2]. - The U.S. has intensified sanctions, with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announcing sanctions against 15 entities and 14 vessels involved in illegal trade of Iranian oil, refined products, and petrochemicals [2]. Geopolitical Factors Impacting Oil Transportation - Two potential scenarios are outlined regarding geopolitical risks: 1. If geopolitical tensions escalate, such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, insurance rates and risk premiums could significantly increase freight rates. Additionally, if Iranian oil exports are hindered, Asian buyers may seek compliant market alternatives, boosting demand in those markets [2]. 2. Conversely, if geopolitical risks ease, similar to the situation with Venezuelan oil transitioning to compliant markets, the potential for sanctions on Iran to be lifted could lead to a clearing of shadow fleets and a shift from black to white oil [2]. Market Outlook - The outlook for the oil transportation market remains positive, with expectations for upward trends in freight rates driven by supply dynamics and amplified by geopolitical factors. Recommendations include investing in companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation [2].

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.26%，报15.43港元，成交额1.05亿港元。 消息面上，特朗普2月3号发文称已与印度总理莫迪达成共识，印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油，转而大幅增 加从美国采购能源等产品；美印双方达成贸易协议，美国对印度的对等关税将从25%下调至18%。财通 证券认为，后续伴随政策落地，印度将停止购买俄油，国内需求转向合规原油，有望进一步支撑合规市 场运价。中期来看，伴随上游扩产&地缘事件&制裁收紧利好供需，运价中枢有望保持上涨。 国泰海通证券指出，2026年以来地缘局势紧张，船东情绪高涨，且有海外船东加大租船控制市场，近期 油运运价维持高位。上周中东-中国VLCCTCE维持在12万美元以上高位。提示船东情绪仍将可能持续影 响短期运价，建议关注运价中枢同比上升趋势，该行预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比大增数倍。重点提示 油运不是短炒地缘局势，而是具有"超级牛市"长逻辑。看好全球原油增产继续驱动油运需求增长，油轮 加速老龄化将保障合规运力供给刚性持续。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a strong demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with an upward trend in ticket prices expected to continue. The report suggests a long-term investment strategy based on a "super cycle" logic [3][4]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, with expectations for tanker profits to increase significantly year-on-year in Q1 2026, indicating a potential "super bull market" [3][4]. - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by a reduction in competitive pressure and a gradual increase in price levels [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, 2026, with a year-on-year increase in passenger flow of 2% as of February 6, 2026. Air travel saw a 6% increase, while rail travel decreased by 1% [4][10]. - The report highlights that the aviation market's load factor and ticket prices are both showing positive year-on-year growth. The limited increase in train and bus services is expected to benefit airline revenue management [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability during the Spring Festival season, with Q1 2026 expected to show industry-wide profitability due to favorable ticket price trends and a decrease in oil prices [4]. Oil Shipping - The report notes that geopolitical tensions have kept shipping rates elevated, with tanker utilization rates remaining high since August 2025 due to increased oil production and stricter sanctions on Russian oil [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) on the Middle East to China route has maintained above $120,000 per day [20]. - The report emphasizes that the oil shipping sector is not merely a short-term play on geopolitical events but has a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global oil production increases and the aging of tanker fleets [4]. Express Delivery - The report indicates that the express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year growth in parcel volume of 13.6% for 2025, although December's growth slowed to 2% due to high operational costs and a warm winter [4]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in industry pricing, with December's average revenue per parcel decreasing by only 2% year-on-year, suggesting a potential easing of competitive pressures [4]. - The report recommends focusing on leading express companies that are optimizing their business structures and building differentiated competitive advantages, such as SF Express and ZTO Express [4].