丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 如何看待回落后的散运？ ——交运周专题 2025W47 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，干散运标的股价在一波上涨后迅速回调，我们认为前期上涨主要 301 法案落地影响，而 近期回落主要受福建板块情绪降温所致。虽然短期股价下行，但由于所处行业景气修复上行， 明年供给温和有限的背景下，需求三大催化因素 1）西芒杜投产改变铁矿石海运结构，2）美联 储降息释放大宗商品需求，3）俄乌战后重建和雅下水电建设拉涨大宗散货需求，提供行业上行 空间，行业中公司盈利有望随之改善。而从估值角度，当前船台紧张，新船价格维持高位，二 手船价随市场景气反弹，重置成本对估值有较强支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ...

Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to enter a "super cycle" with high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, driven by demand growth and recovery in passenger structure [1] - Domestic airlines are active, and international ticket prices have surged, leading to significant reductions in losses expected in Q4 and a turnaround for the year [1] - The estimated passenger load factor for international routes in September-October exceeded 80%, with a year-on-year increase of over 3 percentage points, driving ticket prices significantly higher than market expectations [1] - The continuation of visa-free policies and the development of international transit hubs are expected to enhance long-term profitability for airlines [1] - Recommendations include China National Aviation, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [1] Oil Shipping Industry - Recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America, along with U.S. sanctions on Russia, have positively impacted compliant VLCCs, leading to soaring freight rates [2] - The sentiment among shipowners is optimistic, with VLCC-TCE rates for Middle East to China routes reaching over $120,000, a new high [2] - The forecast for Q4 2025 indicates that oil shipping profits will reach a ten-year high, with expectations of continued demand growth outpacing supply [2] - Recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling [2] Express Delivery Industry - The growth rate of express delivery volume during the Double Eleven shopping festival has slowed, with over 13.9 billion packages delivered, a 9% year-on-year increase, down from 21% in 2024 [3] - The average daily volume reached 634 million packages, reflecting a marginal effect of the Double Eleven promotion on consumer spending [3] - Instant retail has had a limited diversion effect on traditional e-commerce express delivery, primarily focusing on local perishable and daily goods without significantly impacting long-distance delivery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, but the third quarter showed signs of recovery in the oil tanker industry, with improved performance in freight rates and operational metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 17.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year [1]. - For the third quarter alone, the company reported revenue of 5.47 billion yuan, a decline of 2.5% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 4.4% to 850 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The foreign trade oil transportation sector saw a narrowing decline in performance during the third quarter, with VLCC freight rates showing a recovery after a low in July [1]. - The average TCE for VLCC on the Middle East-China route was $35,000 per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, while the average TCE for Clarksons VLCC was $36,000 per day, up 11.7% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Operational Insights - The company continued to install scrubbers on five VLCCs in the third quarter, enhancing future profitability despite a reduction in operational days due to the sale of an aging VLCC [1]. - The domestic oil transportation segment reported revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 360 million yuan, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year, but with a gross margin improvement to 26.5% [1]. Group 4: LNG Transportation - The company expanded its LNG fleet to 55 vessels, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and achieved revenue of 630 million yuan from LNG transportation, down 3.7% year-on-year, but with a gross profit increase of 4.7% [1]. - The company has secured stable income through long-term contracts, with 32 vessels on order, contributing to profit growth in the LNG segment [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant rebound in VLCC freight rates due to OPEC+ production increases and other market dynamics, with average TCE rates for the Middle East-China route reaching $77,000 per day in September and October, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.3% [2]. - Projected earnings for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 4.84 billion, 6.17 billion, and 6.45 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.0, 11.0, and 10.5 times [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [3] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a recovery, with various segments showing potential for growth, particularly in shipping, infrastructure, aviation, and express delivery [7][19][22][20] Shipping - The shipping sector is seeing mixed price movements, with the SCFI for the US East route down 17.2% and the Southeast Asia route up 6.4% [11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the price increases in container shipping and the potential recovery in oil tanker rates due to improved US-China trade relations [16][12] Infrastructure - Key metrics indicate a decline in truck traffic and railway cargo, while port throughput has increased significantly, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [17][18] - The report emphasizes the potential for dividend stocks in the infrastructure sector, particularly in ports, which are currently undervalued [19] Aviation - The aviation sector shows a positive trend with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in passenger volume, driven by improved demand and a low base effect [22] - The report suggests that the industry is poised for profitability in 2026, with a focus on valuation recovery and potential investment opportunities in major airlines [22] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is benefiting from a reduction in price competition, with a notable increase in business volume and revenue [20] - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" policies are helping to stabilize prices and improve profitability in the sector [20] Logistics - The logistics segment is experiencing stable performance, with cross-border air freight prices showing a week-on-week increase [23] - The report notes the importance of monitoring the daily traffic at key ports and the implications for logistics operations [23]

Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in October due to weaker-than-expected inflation data, with the September CPI rising to 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.1% forecast[5][12] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.02%, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price decreased by 0.3%[6] Market Performance - Major stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 both up by 3.6%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%[6] - The S&P 500 Index increased by 1.9%, while emerging market stocks outperformed developed markets with a 2.2% rise[6] Commodity Trends - IPE Brent crude futures rose by 7.1% due to supply concerns from sanctions on Russia, while the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index increased by 3.7%[5] - COMEX copper prices saw a 2.4% increase, contrasting with a 3.3% decline in London gold prices[5] Investment and Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence, with strong performance in goods like automobiles and textiles, while services such as urban travel and movie ticket sales are declining[10] - Investment in infrastructure is improving, with special bond issuance exceeding 90% completion and cement shipment rates increasing[10] Foreign Investment Activity - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately 10 billion CNY in the last week, reversing a previous outflow of 11.3 billion CNY[35] - In Hong Kong, foreign capital inflow reached 9.5 billion HKD, with significant investments in software services and ETFs[36] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and plans to enhance consumer spending and investment in social welfare sectors[30] - The upcoming economic stimulus plan from Japan's new Prime Minister is expected to exceed 13.9 trillion JPY, aimed at supporting economic recovery[7]

Group 1 - COSCO Shipping Energy's stock price increased by 5.99%, currently trading at HKD 9.91, with a trading volume of HKD 158 million [1] - On October 15, COSCO Shipping Energy announced the completion of its A-share issuance to specific investors, issuing 694,444,444 shares at a price of RMB 11.52 per share, raising a total of RMB 7,999,999,994.88 [1] - According to Huayuan Securities, the oil industry fundamentals are improving as OPEC+ has accelerated production since April, with a potential increase in production quotas by 2.2 million barrels per day in September, which may lead to a decline in oil prices and boost oil trade demand [1]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is focusing on the recovery of business travel, with a high passenger load factor maintained during the post-holiday off-peak season. Domestic ticket prices continue to rise year-on-year [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration is strictly controlling the growth of flight slots, with a projected 1.6% reduction in flight slots for the winter season of 2025/26 compared to 2024/25, aligning with expectations of continued slot control [1] - Domestic flight slots are reduced by 1.8%, while international slots decrease by 1.6%. Domestic airlines are increasing flights by 1.8%, while foreign airlines are reducing flights by 7.2% [1] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - The VLCC-TCE rate on the Middle East to China route remains above $80,000, with shipowners feeling optimistic. China's countermeasures against the U.S. may lead to a preference for non-U.S. vessels, potentially reducing effective shipping capacity and increasing freight rates [2] - The outlook for oil shipping remains positive, with expectations for supply and demand to continue improving over the next two years. Profits for oil tankers are projected to reach new highs in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3: China-U.S. Trade Relations - China's countermeasures against U.S. 301 investigations aim to maintain fair competition in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets, encouraging the U.S. to correct its discriminatory practices [3] - Exemptions for Chinese-built vessels in the countermeasures are expected to enhance long-term confidence among Chinese shipping owners, preserving China's competitive edge in shipbuilding [3] - The countermeasures will directly impact U.S. shipping companies, with potential short-term disruptions but no significant increase in industry costs anticipated. Compensation measures may be introduced to alleviate operational pressures on Chinese shipping companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - Company successfully completed a private placement of A-shares, raising a total of 8 billion yuan, which will be used to optimize its fleet and enhance its competitive position in the oil transportation market [1][2]. Group 1: Fundraising and Share Issuance - The company announced a private placement of 694 million shares, representing 14.6% of the pre-issue total share capital, at a price of 11.52 yuan per share [1]. - The total amount raised is 8 billion yuan, with a net amount of 7.98 billion yuan after expenses [1]. Group 2: Fleet Optimization - The funds raised will primarily be used for existing new ship orders, including 6 VLCCs, 2 LNG carriers, and 3 Aframax crude oil tankers, which will enhance the company's leadership in both domestic and international oil transportation markets [2]. - The company currently owns 43 VLCCs, with an average fleet age of 11.5 years, and 14 of these vessels are over 15 years old, indicating a need for fleet renewal [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The oil transportation market is expected to remain favorable due to limited new VLCC supply and the aging fleet, with nominal capacity growth near zero [3]. - Seasonal demand is anticipated to coincide with non-seasonal factors, such as increased trade barriers and geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply, which will benefit compliant oil transportation [3]. - OPEC+ has resumed production increases, which is expected to boost oil transportation demand [3]. - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve is likely to support oil demand through a contango structure, further benefiting oil transportation [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.31 billion yuan, 6.18 billion yuan, and 6.45 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.2, 9.7, and 9.3 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The recent private placement will optimize the fleet, with the company issuing 694 million shares at a price of 11.52 yuan per share, raising a total of 8 billion yuan [2][13]. - The funds raised will be primarily used for existing new ship orders, including 6 VLCCs, 2 LNG carriers, and 3 Aframax tankers, enhancing the company's competitive position in the oil transportation market [13]. - The controlling shareholder subscribed for 50% of the new shares, indicating confidence in the company's prospects [13]. - The oil transportation market is expected to experience a favorable environment due to limited supply and seasonal demand, with several catalysts anticipated in the fourth quarter [13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 477,078 million shares, with a current share price of 12.52 yuan [9]. - The company’s net asset value per share is 7.69 yuan, with a 12-month high of 13.80 yuan and a low of 9.74 yuan [9]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 5.31 billion, 6.18 billion, and 6.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2, 9.7, and 9.3 times [13]. - The total revenue is expected to grow from 23.24 billion yuan in 2024 to 26.02 billion yuan in 2027 [19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the supply of VLCCs is limited, with near-zero growth in nominal capacity, and the aging fleet will continue to restrict supply [13]. - Factors such as increased global trade barriers and OPEC+ production policies are expected to positively impact oil transportation demand [13].