技术面：黄金月线周线多头趋势，4小时图金价沿着13日均线稳步上行。小时图昨日（10月8日）短线突破4000美元后略有加速，多头强 劲，日内下方关注3990美元的支撑。 黄金方面： 世界黄金协会的数据显示，今年全球ETF流入达到640亿美元，仅9月就创下了173亿美元的单月纪录。 9月的美联储会议纪要显示，大多数与会者支持进一步降息，投资者预计本月底的议息会议会再降25个基点，同时12月降息的概率也上升 至80%左右。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，全球政治经济的不确定性、地缘局势紧张，以及美联储独立性等诸多因素为黄金提供了强 劲支撑。 技术面：原油日线从6月19日开始自77.60美元震荡下行，高低点同时下降，后续或将进一步走低。昨日在62.8美元遇阻回落，下方关注 61.50美元的支撑，若跌破则有破低的风险。 铜方面： 铜价在9月底短线大涨之后，近两周维持震荡上行走势，多头强势。短线来看，近两日维持震荡走势，在未跌破4.95美元之前继续破高的概 率大，日内上方关注5.07美元的阻力。 日经225方面： 黄金小时图 原油方面： 从今年4月份以来，OPEC+加速增产一方面是为了争夺失去的市场份额，另一 ...

OPEC+公告称，OPEC+八个产油国将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | | 地缘扰动 | VS | OPEC+扩产，原油波动加剧。近期乌克兰接连袭击俄罗斯石 | 油出口港口和炼厂，油价下方存在支撑；库存方面，美国库存下降，油价 | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 下方有支撑；供需方面，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升， | 谨慎看空 | | | | | | | | | | ★ | 油价下行压力较大，重点关注 | 60 | 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。 | 策略：中长期向下，短期存地缘不确定性，空单继续持有同时购买看涨期 | | | | | | | | 权。 | 成本端原油转弱，仓单量处于历史高位压制盘面。成本端原油当前不确定 | | | | | | | | | | | 性较强，OPEC+增产预期压低油价；LPG | 估值修复，主力合约基差回归至 | LPG | 谨慎看空 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

美股三大指数09月29日收盘全线上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨0.15%；标准普尔500种股票指数上涨0.26%；纳斯达克综合指数 上涨0.48%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，亚马逊涨超1%，博通跌近2%。特斯拉涨0.64%，微软涨0.61%，Meta跌0.05%，苹果跌0.40%，AMD涨1.19%。美 股存储概念股集体上涨，希捷科技涨5.35%，美光科技涨4.22%，西部数据涨9.23%。 热门中概股普遍上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.03%，哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴、新东方涨超4%，理想汽车、京东涨超3%，百度、蔚来涨超2%。 01 特朗普称以色列同意结束加沙冲突"20点计划" 谢克尔盘中涨近2% 美东时间29日周一，与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在白宫会谈后，美国总统特朗普宣布，以方已同意美国提出的结束加沙冲突"20点计划"。消息公布后，以色 列谢克尔汇率刷新日高，美元兑谢克尔一度跌破3.2890，日内跌逾1.9%。 会谈当天，内塔尼亚胡还就以色列此前空袭多哈哈马斯领导层一事向卡塔尔道歉。卡塔尔此前将以方道歉作为恢复斡旋加沙冲突的先决条件。 02 WTI原油期货一度跌4% 据央视新闻 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，8月下旬以来，油运运价持续上行，一方面因中东货盘增加，另 外美洲货盘增加进一步带动中东区域运力紧张。供给端看，当前运价已经反映油运船舶紧张，中东地区 船货比近期达到历史低位，而考虑到已定载船舶短期内无法返回，后续船舶供给或更加紧张；需求端 看，中东用油旺季已过，OPEC+增产对于出口的传导仍会持续，且十月份OPEC+仍有小幅增产，而参 考历史年份运价表现，北半球冬季对油品需求往往持续三个月，因此后续旺季带来的货盘需求有望持续 或增加。 风险因素 向后看，四季度旺季有望延续当前景气行情：1)供给端看，当前运价已经反映油运船舶紧张，中东地区 船货比近期达到历史低位，而考虑到已定载船舶短期内无法返回，后续船舶供给或更加紧张；2)需求端 看，中东用油旺季已过，OPEC+增产对于出口的传导仍会持续，且十月份OPEC+仍有小幅增产，而参 考历史年份运价表现，北半球冬季对油品需求往往持续三个月，因此后续旺季带来的货盘需求有望持续 或增加。 持续的黑船制裁是油运供需改善的长期推动因素 中金认为，制裁对于油运影响并非一蹴而就，而是风险收益比降低后逐步体现的结果，今年美国对于俄 罗斯、伊朗原油 ...

ITG 国贸期 ITG 国留財 ITG 国贸 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸朝货 TTG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 rig 国贸期货 G 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 ITGE r ( ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 rt G 國留期货 TTG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 TTG 国贸期货 一四期货 -2015期货 | 1 C E H Hos | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度策略参考 发布日期:2025/09 | | 从业给后:F025127 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 股指长线继续看多,但国庆长假节前市场出现单边上涨格局的概 | | | | 震荡 | 率较低,建议控制仓位。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 金价短期或高位偏强震荡,但仍需警惕国庆长假 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】科威特石油部长Al Barra在接受当地媒体采 访时表示，该国原油产能为每日320万桶，根据OPEC+协议，科 威特将自10月起把原油产量提高至每日255.9万桶，部长同时强 调，OPEC+最新的增产决定与市场动态相关，未来增产措施可视 情况暂停或逆转；能源年鉴2025报告：石油仍然是最大的能源 来源，2024年满足了全球34%的能源总需求。尽管全球需求放 缓，但仍增长了0.7%，首次突破101百万桶/日的水平。评：对 未来供应过剩的担忧盖过了地缘政治紧张带来的影响，国际油 价连续第四天下跌。整体上，OPEC+从今年4月开始逐步增产， 10月将再次增产13.7万桶/日，其增产趋势增加了全球原油供应 量，非OPEC+产油国供应量也维持在高位，原油市场整体供应宽 松的格局使油价承压运行。逢高沽空为佳。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格55.8泰铢/公斤，杯胶价 格50.35泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格14500元/吨，制浓乳 胶价格16200元/吨；据统计，截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天 胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量46.12万吨（库存调整后上期总库 存46.47万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards single - sided trading; cross - regional spreads may widen [6][8]. - Medium - to long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply is complex. OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with Russia's supply affected by drone attacks, and non - OPEC+ countries showing significant supply growth [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation. Asia has strong demand, Europe faces seasonal decline, and the US has unexpected gasoline demand [7]. 3.2 Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio; overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission; the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has declined [14][20][25]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ core members' production and export situations vary. Some countries are increasing production, while others are facing supply disruptions. For example, the UAE has increased production capacity, and Russia's exports are restricted by attacks [10][11]. - Non - OPEC+ countries also have different supply situations. The US has reached a record - high production, and Brazil's exports to China are expected to hit a record [6][11]. 3.4 Demand - Global demand shows regional differences. China's demand is supported by the agricultural and construction seasons, and new export quotas may ease domestic oversupply. Europe's demand is affected by refinery maintenance, and the US has strong gasoline demand [7]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories have stabilized; European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased; domestic refined oil profit margins have declined [69][74][76]. 3.6 Price and Spread - North American basis fluctuates; monthly spreads have a slight rebound; SC is stronger than the external market, and monthly spreads have rebounded; net long positions have rebounded [80][81][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].