1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on November 12, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver, tin, and crude oil rose, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes declined. There were also fluctuations in stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The flow of funds into and out of different contracts varied [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations. For example, copper prices are affected by supply uncertainties and weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate prices are supported by supply - demand tightness; and crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical issues [9][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of November 12, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Silver, tin, butadiene rubber, SC crude oil, rapeseed oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and iron ore rose over 1%, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes had significant drops. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of funds, some contracts had inflows while others had outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Supply: With long - term contract negotiations approaching, there is uncertainty in long - term contract prices and settlement methods. In November, 5 smelters are expected to conduct maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The开工 rate of copper concentrate smelters decreased, while that of smelters using scrap copper or anode copper increased. Scrap copper supply is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The peak season was weaker than previous years, and downstream demand remained weak. Copper product开工 rates declined, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Supply: In October, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China decreased year - on - year, but domestic production continued to grow. The开工 rate increased [11] - Demand: Supported by the strong performance of energy - storage batteries, downstream procurement was smooth. The production of power, energy - storage, and consumer batteries increased, and new - energy vehicle sales also grew [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December but pause in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco lowered prices for Asian markets. US crude production reached a new high, and overall oil inventories increased slightly [12] - Demand: The peak consumption season ended, and market concerns about demand increased due to factors like the decline in the US manufacturing index [12] - Geopolitical factors: US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the US - Venezuela military stand - off, and the attitude of Indian oil companies towards Russian oil all affect the market [12][14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: The开工 rate decreased slightly last week, and November's production is expected to decline. Some refineries plan to resume production [15] - Demand: Downstream开工 rates mostly increased, but were restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, while southern demand is affected by rain [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: The开工 rate of PP enterprises increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The proportion of standard - grade production increased [16][17] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate was at a low level in the same period. Orders had limited follow - up, and the market lacked large - scale purchases [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The开工 rate increased, and new production capacity was put into operation or in trial operation [18] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate decreased. Although the agricultural film season was in progress, the peak season was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The开工 rate increased and was at a relatively high level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and some enterprises' maintenance was about to end [20] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate declined slightly. Exports are expected to weaken, and social inventory increased [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal imports increased, but domestic production decreased. Policy - driven production cuts and environmental protection warnings made the supply in a tight - balance situation [21] - Demand: Steel mills'开工 and iron - water production decreased, and downstream demand was weak [22] 3.2.9 Urea - Supply: Factory复产 and new production increased the daily output, and high production is expected to continue this month [23] - Demand: Downstream high - price acceptance was average, but demand in the Northeast increased. The market was affected by export news, and inventory was decreasing [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is weak and volatile [3]. Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices have dropped from short - term highs, and asphalt has continued to decline due to poor fundamentals. The supply and demand of asphalt in China have both declined this week. The overall inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the cost is influenced by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the production plan of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The planned output of domestic asphalt refineries in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons. This week, both supply and demand of domestic asphalt declined. The decline in supply was mainly due to the active reduction of production capacity by some refineries and the suspension of production in some others [3]. - **Demand**: Affected by the capital situation and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China were sluggish. The demand in the north gradually stopped, and the downstream demand in the south increased and decreased intermittently. The overall demand declined. This week's total shipment volume was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the industry's shipment volume will further decline next week [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the factory and warehouse inventories in various regions of China showed a mixed trend of increase and decrease, and the overall inventory continued to be destocked. The destocking performance in East China was particularly prominent [3]. - **Cost**: At the beginning of this week, international oil prices rose slightly for three consecutive days due to multiple positive factors. In the later part of the week, oil prices fell for two consecutive days due to concerns about interest rate cuts, rising risk - aversion sentiment, and other factors. Overall, the oil price at the end of this week dropped compared with last week, and the average price this week also decreased compared with last week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is weak and volatile. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is weak and volatile, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3]. 2. Price - The document provides the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China) from 2025/01 to 2025/11 [5]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The document shows the asphalt crack spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [15]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024/01 to 2025/10 [16]. 4. Supply - **Production Plan Expectation**: It shows the monthly production plan and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in North China, South China, Shandong, and East China in different years [19][23][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It provides the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][35][37]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt production in China from 2018 to 2025 [42]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It provides the price, premium/discount, port inventory in China and Shandong of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [49][50]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [54][57]. - **Social Inventory**: It presents the social inventory in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [63]. - **Downstream开工率**: It provides the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [66][67][69]. - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: It shows the开工率 of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [72].

Report Summary - The report reviews the weekly situation of asphalt, covering macro - analysis, supply - demand analysis, and provides trading strategies and market outlooks [7][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a one - sided decline, hitting a new low for the year. It is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers, with the downstream entering the off - season and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [8][54] - The operation should avoid chasing short positions due to the large short - term decline. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [8][54] Summary by Directory 01 Report Abstract - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela, a significant increase in US EIA crude oil inventory, and OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026 [7] - Key data: As of November 5, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 29.7%, down 1.8 percentage points; as of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons; the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; the social inventory was 897,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons [7] 02 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Macro - improvement, geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand, OPEC+ production increase [11] 03 Macro Analysis - OPEC+ production adjustment: Increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026. It may relieve short - term supply pressure, but the long - term supply surplus expectation remains [12] - Geopolitical situation: The Gaza situation may heat up, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and US - Venezuela relations are tense. Geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil price fluctuations [13] - Fed policy and economic data: There is a divergence on a December rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected, indicating continued inflation pressure relief [16] 04 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The operating rate was 29.7% as of November 5, down 1.8 percentage points. Supply pressure is expected to decline [17][25] - Demand: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt shipment was 445,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The modified asphalt capacity utilization rate was 10.42%, down 4.6 percentage points from last week. Demand is facing weakening pressure [26][29] - Inventory: As of November 7, the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; as of October 24, the social inventory was 1,005,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [36][43] - Spread: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt processing dilution profit was - 593.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton. The basis was 321 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude ratio was 53.09 as of November 5 [52] 05 Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers. Avoid chasing short positions. Focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [54]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a significant upward trend, with an expected increase of 180 CNY/ton, translating to a rise of 0.14-0.16 CNY per liter, despite a reduction in the increase compared to the previous day [1] Group 1: Current Oil Price Situation - The domestic oil price is currently at a high level, with various regions reporting prices for 92-octane gasoline ranging from 6.64 CNY/liter in Xinjiang to 7.96 CNY/liter in Hainan, the highest in the country [5] - The next oil price adjustment window opens on November 10, with the potential for changes based on international oil price fluctuations in the coming days [4] Group 2: International Oil Price Dynamics - Recent volatility in international oil prices has been marked by a significant drop, with WTI crude oil falling by 2.23% to 60.17 USD/barrel and Brent crude down by 1.80% to 63.85 USD/barrel [3] - A slight rebound in oil prices was observed, with WTI crude rising to 60.34 USD/barrel, supported by a larger-than-expected decrease in API crude oil inventories [3] Group 3: Influencing Factors - The upcoming release of the EIA crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are critical variables that could impact oil prices [5][6] - OPEC+ production increase expectations and easing US-China trade tensions continue to suppress the potential for significant oil price increases, while geopolitical risks may still trigger supply concerns [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant oversupply of global crude oil, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices in the coming years [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - U.S. oil futures closed down 0.31% at $60.29 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures fell 0.42% to $64.05 per barrel [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The World Bank reports an increasing global crude oil oversupply [1] - Commodity prices are expected to decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026 [1] - The oversupply of crude oil is projected to reach a near-term high of 165% in 2026 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding potential production increases by OPEC+ are contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and a strategy combination of shorting crude oil and buying out - of - the - money call options should be considered [2] - For fuel oil, there is short - term support for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply will be loose; low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, but there are potential supports, and the opportunity to go long on the low - high sulfur spread can be considered [2] - The "peak season" demand for asphalt is weaker than expected, and the medium - to - long - term expectation of slower inventory reduction restricts the upside space [3] - The fundamentals of LPG have improved marginally, providing short - term support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC12 contract falling 0.81% during the day [2] - The US API crude and refined product inventories decreased more than expected last week, but the US sanctions on Russia have room for maneuver [2] - The easing of Sino - US trade games limits the intensity of sensitive oil sanctions and the upper limit of supply fluctuations [2] - Under the background of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and continuous inventory accumulation pressure, the rebound space of oil prices is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil still follows crude oil [2] - In the short term, the escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US intensifies the supply risk of high - sulfur fuel oil, and there is support from feedstock demand under the constraint of domestic crude oil quotas in the fourth quarter [2] - In the medium term, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose due to limited geopolitical risk fermentation, uncertain import policies, increased exports from the Middle East to Asia, and the end of the power generation peak season [2] - The low - sulfur market is weak, with abundant overseas supply and high Asian arrivals, but there may be support from diesel market transmission and seasonal increase in East Asian power generation demand in the fourth quarter [2] - There are signals of weakening relative strength between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market, and the opportunity to go long on the low - high sulfur spread can be considered [2] Asphalt - The asphalt futures fluctuated today [3] - The planned production of refineries in November decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [3] - Terminal demand in the north is blocked by cooling, while that in the south has improved due to better weather, and the terminal demand in Shandong is average [3] - The year - on - year high - growth rate of shipments since October is difficult to sustain [3] - The overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, restricting the upside space [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG performed relatively strongly in oil product futures today, with the main contract rising 1.2% [4] - The external market price stabilized and rebounded, and the commodity volume and import arrivals of liquefied gas decreased [4] - The improvement of chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant cooling in many places [4] - The storage rates of ports and refineries have decreased, and the marginal improvement of fundamentals provides short - term support [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which has impacted the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a decline in gold prices [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot gold fell to a three-week low, dropping to below $3900 per ounce at one point, and ultimately closing down 0.73% at $3952.71 per ounce [1] - Citigroup has lowered its short-term price targets for gold and silver, reducing the 0-3 month gold price forecast from $4000 to $3800 per ounce, and the silver price forecast from $55 to $42 per ounce [1] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices declined as investors weighed the impacts of sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ production increases, with WTI crude oil closing down 2.23% at $60.05 per barrel, and Brent crude oil down 2.77% at $63.87 per barrel [1] Group 3: Employment Data - ADP released the U.S. national employment report, estimating an average of 14,250 new jobs added per week over the four weeks ending October 11 [1] Group 4: Political and Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. federal government remains in a "shutdown" as the Senate rejected a temporary funding bill for the 13th time [1] - Tensions in the Middle East continue as Israel claims Hamas violated a ceasefire agreement, leading to multiple airstrikes on Gaza, while Hamas denies the violation and has postponed the transfer of hostage remains [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. Specifically, the price of crude oil is expected to return to a volatile state due to OPEC+'s production increase plan and concerns about weak demand; the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are also expected to be volatile due to various factors such as supply and demand and cost [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The WTI December contract closed down $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%. The Brent December contract closed down $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC2512 closed at 464.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.5 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.75%. OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply. The market's concern about weak demand continues to suppress oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will return to a volatile state in the short term [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 closed up 1.8% at 3,275 yuan per ton. Due to weak downstream demand and sufficient recent supply, the Asian low-sulfur market structure has weakened. The Asian high-sulfur market is expected to remain stable. In the short term, the absolute prices of FU and LU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3,295 yuan per ton. From the perspective of refinery production schedules in early November, the supply pressure will be alleviated. In the short term, the absolute price of BU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,616 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.17%; EG2601 closed at 4,109 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.78%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are generally good, with an average production and sales estimate of about 70%. The fundamentals of TA and EG have improved. In the short term, the prices of polyester products are expected to be volatile [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 rose 45 yuan per ton to 15,380 yuan per ton, and the main NR contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 12,540 yuan per ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. Macroscopically, the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, and it is expected that rubber prices will be strongly volatile [3] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan per ton. In the short term, the port supply is still relatively high, and the short-term rebound of crude oil has a positive impact on the valuation of chemicals. Therefore, the performance of methanol may tend to be volatile [4] - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,560 - 6,650 yuan per ton. In the short term, the production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short-term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile stage [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price of the PVC market in East China fluctuated slightly. The supply remains at a high level, the domestic demand has slowed down, and the export is expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under the suppression of high inventory [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 28, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [6] 3.3 Market News - Market participants said that OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December to regain market share. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply [10] - Morgan Stanley said that the fundamentals of the oil market are expected to return to balance from an oversupply state in the second half of next year [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, paraxylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][23] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][33][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][61][62] - **Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [69][70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. The suspension of the meeting between Trump and Putin cast a shadow over the negotiation prospects due to differences in the Ukraine war. The US Energy Department's plan to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve signaled low oil prices, and the significant draw in API crude oil inventory stimulated the price rebound. However, the market still faces many macro - shocks such as Sino - US trade negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to the Ukraine issue, and the US Energy Department plans to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR. Trump rejected the Democrats' meeting request. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.47 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $61.24 per barrel. The basis was 29.53 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 (expected to increase by 0.288 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels in the week ending October 10. As of October 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased, and as of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level, and SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, with long - term investors advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to Russia's refusal to immediately cease fire in Ukraine, and a White House official said Trump has no plan to meet Putin in the near future [5]. - The EU Trade Commissioner invited China's Commerce Minister to visit Brussels to find an "urgent solution" to China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to solve the Anshi Semiconductor issue, and both sides exchanged views on the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [5]. - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has accelerated crude oil purchases from the Middle East due to uncertain Russian crude oil exports to India, and has bought at least 2.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf region recently [5]. - UBS expects oil prices to stabilize around the current level, but if trade tensions escalate, oil prices may face pressure. UBS believes the oil market is in a supply glut, but not as extreme as the IEA's forecast [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields, and the mitigation of Trump's tariff threats [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and there is a medium - to - long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.09 ( - 0.16%), SC crude oil increased by 1.70 (0.39%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.19 (0.31%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.65 (1.07%), WTI decreased by $0.28 ( - 0.49%), Oman crude oil decreased by $1.32 ( - 2.08%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.29 (0.47%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [19].