| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6206 | -2 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6217 | 3 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 5336 6090 | -410 主力持仓量:纯苯(日,手) 0 市场价:纯苯:华北市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 13064 6180 | 371 50 | | | 市场价:加氢苯:江苏地区:主流价(日,元/吨 | | 市场价:加氢苯:山西地区:主流价(日,元/吨 | | | | | 市场价:纯苯:华南市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 6150 | 0 市场价:纯苯:东北地区:主流价(日,元/吨) | 6155 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 6225 | 0 | 5925 | 0 | | | ) 现货价:纯苯:韩国:离岸中间价(日,美元/吨 | | ) 现货价:纯苯:中国:到岸价(CFR):中间价(日 | | | | | | 736 | ...

塑料产业日报 2025-08-25 本方面，美联储9月降息预期升温，俄乌会晤推进有限，近期国际油价反弹，但OPEC+增产影响抑制油价上 行空间。技术上，L2601关注7450附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 里木石化、茂名石化计划重启，产量、产能利用率预计环比上升。农膜需求季节性提升，但由于农产品利 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 润收窄，棚膜订单跟进有限。此外，高温、强降雨天气频发也对棚膜需求造成扰动。包装膜刚需为主。成 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 ...

关注弱需求背景下原油运输合规市场结构变化，短期OPEC+增产效果持续传导至货盘需求，中期维度 关注伊朗原油出口变化对合规需求的影响 伊朗原油作为非合规市场需求主要的原油来源，挤占合规市场需求，关注未来伊朗原油出口变化，2025 年1月短暂筑底后恢复至日均150万桶以上，期待地缘事件推动合规市场边际增量的兑现。未来若伊朗制 裁趋严，有望推动黑船出清&合规市场需求增加，弱需求背景下合规需求的结构优化有望推动旺季运价 抬升。 OPEC+增产有望持续传导至货盘端，与旺季需求共振形成运价上行的有力支撑 OPEC+计划9月增产54.7万桶/天，提前一年完成原定计划，2025年7月欧佩克原油产量环比增长26.2万 桶/天。考虑补偿减产环比变化的背景下，2025年7月、8月、9月OPEC+的净配额增量分别为38.6万桶/ 日、50.2万桶/日、52.8万桶/日，后续增产实际落地情况若保持加速，料将推动货盘数量显著增加。近 期中东地区货盘集中增加，推动短期地区供需关系不匹配，部分VLCC日运价水平超过5万。根据 Clarksons，2025年8月21日，VLCC TD3C(中东-中国)TCE为50298美元/天，环比前一日增长 ...

中信证券研报称，根据Clarksons数据，2025年8月24日当周VLCC TCE环比增长31.7%至45800美元/天， 其中VLCC TD3C（中东-中国）TCE 环比增长15.7%。VLCC运价自8月初以来连续环比三周高增长，且 同比增速转正。我们认为淡季的运价环比持续改善反映供给端紧张程度和OPEC+增产的效果逐步显 现，旺季临近有望进一步提振。OPEC+计划9月增产54.7万桶/天，提前一年完成原定计划，有望推动 VLCC货盘数量显著增加，与旺季需求形成共振。供给端，被制裁运力增加叠加老龄化加速带来的效率 损失，未来黑市和灰市贸易窗口若进一步缩窄，有望加速老旧船舶的出清，将加剧供给端强约束。总体 来看，短期OPEC+增产效果持续传导至货盘需求，中期关注伊朗原油出口变化对合规需求影响。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic energy chemical market showed mixed performance on August 22, with fuel oil futures experiencing fluctuations, opening at 2723.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2808.00 CNY before closing with a gain of 2.10% [1] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to ample supply and competitive pricing, leading to a decline in spot premiums to a four-month low, while high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by stable downstream demand despite concerns over seasonal demand decline [1] - New Singapore region inventories are expected to accumulate significantly in August due to the arrival of Western arbitrage cargoes, with more low-sulfur blending components anticipated to flow into the Asian market from the Suez region [1] Group 2 - The international crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound movement this week, with supply and demand dynamics providing some support, while the domestic heavy oil market stabilizes after recent gains, with cautious trading sentiment [2] - The trading range for fuel oil futures is noted to be between 2730-2780 CNY for FU2510 and 3430-3480 CNY for LU2511, indicating a cautious approach from market participants [2]

资金流向截至 08 月 13 日 15:27，国内期货主力合约资金流入方面，中证 1000 2509 流入 85.07 亿，中证 500 2509 流入 43.43 亿，沪深 300 2509 流入 37.5 亿； 资金流出方面，焦煤 2601 流出 13.03 亿，棕榈油 2509 流出 6.35 亿，沪金 2510 流出 6.13 亿。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 13 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 13 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，菜油涨超 3%，豆粕、豆二涨 近 3%，菜粕涨超 2%。跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超 5%，工业硅跌超 3%，焦煤跌 3%， 焦炭跌近 3%，多晶硅跌超 2%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约涨 1.02%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力合约涨 0.35%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约涨 1.78%， 中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约涨 1.76%。2 年期国债期货（TS）主力合 ...

| | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 E C | 贸商品指数日报 | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号: F3014717 | | | 郑建著 2025/08/13 Z0013223 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: | | | 周二（8月12日），国内商品期市收盘多数上涨,黑色系普遍上涨,焦煤上涨6.97%,铁矿石上涨 | | | 2.36%;新能源材料多数上涨,碳酸锂上涨2.00%;基本金属多数上涨,氧化铝上涨4.16%;油脂油料 多数上涨,棕榈油上涨3.13%;化工品多数上涨,橡胶上涨0.89%;能源品涨跌互现,低硫燃料油上涨 | | | 0.95%,原油上涨0.55%;贵金属普遍下跌,沪银下跌0.62%,沪金下跌1.12%;航运期货表现颁软,集 | | | 运指数(欧线)下跌1.48%。 | | | 热评:周二国内商品多数上涨,其中,工业品多数上涨、农产品涨跌互现。具体来看: | | | 1) 黑色系多数上涨。上周末唐山限产消息落地,叠加双焦期价延续上行趋势,螺纹热卷期价反弹1% | | | 左右,主力成交量环比收缩。上周五 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 原油 有望企稳 宝城期货 陈栋 在供应回升以及宏观情绪转弱的背景下，近期内外盘原油期货价格震荡走弱。其中，国内原油期货 2509 合约自 535 元/桶一线跌至 490 元/桶附近，累计下跌超 8%。 鉴于油价已经消化利空影响，预计后期油价或震荡企稳。 美联储降息预期升温 近期，宏观层面呈多空分歧局面。一方面，美国总统特朗普再度升级"关税战"，其要求对进口半导体 加征 100%关税。另一方面，美联储"鸽派"力量持续增强，今年 9 月美联储降息 25 个基点的概率上升至 91.5%。 基本面预期转弱 8 月初，OPEC+决定在 9 月增产 54.7 万桶/日。自 2025 年 4 月起，OPEC+的产量策略显著转向，从此 前的通过减产力挺油价转向增产以争夺市场份额。今年 4—8 月，OPEC+累计增产 191.9 万桶/日。在供应 压力持续增强的背景下，需求也面临季节性转弱的风险。 随着北半球夏季用油需求触及峰值，未来需求继续上升的空间有限。截至 8 月 1 日当周，美国炼厂开 工率为 96.9%，较前一周上升 1.5 个百分点，同比上升 ...

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data has severely hit the financial market, causing a notable decline in oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting on the weekend decided to continue increasing production in September, completely canceling the previous 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, which restricts the subsequent upward space of oil prices. In the short term, crude oil will oscillate at a low level. Currently, most of the negative news has been released. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs during the week and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. There is a possibility that the US may impose sanctions on Russian energy, triggering a round of upward movement due to geopolitical concerns. The short - term trading range is between 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US trade representative indicated that Trump's tariffs on dozens of countries may continue. US July employment growth was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [3]. - **Basis**: On August 1st, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.99 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.06 per barrel. The basis was 18.53 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25th increased by 1.539 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 1st, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29th, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term trading range is 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. 2. Recent News - OPEC+ reached an agreement at a video conference on Sunday to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, marking the early completion of the exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan implemented by eight member countries in 2023. The meeting lasted only 16 minutes. The organization will retain the option to re - evaluate the suspension of about 1.66 million barrels per day of production, depending on market conditions. OPEC+ has scheduled a follow - up meeting on September 7th [5]. - US President Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7th at 04:01 GMT [5]. - US July employment growth was weaker than expected, with the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased. The decline rates were - 2.83%, - 2.79%, - 0.73%, and - 2.81% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil all decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 1.87% to - 2.79% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories in the US increased in the week ending July 25th [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3][17][18].