智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，今年8月运价持续攀升，提前走出淡季，与2023、2024年同 期运价发生明显分化，拐点前置。近期伊朗、俄油以及委内供应减少，将增加未来合规原油需求。此 外，中东增产有望在需求旺季逐步放量，预计9-12月原油(尤其是合规原油)的需求将进一步改善，支撑4 季度旺季运价继续有强劲表现。VLCC TD3C-TCE单日跳涨23%，淡季运价突破5万美元/天。美股 FRO、ECO、DHT等跟随运价已开启上涨，AH股油运有望补涨。因相对位置低，补涨空间大，推荐招 商轮船(601872.SH)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 近期VLCC运价上涨原因 宏观层面，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上表示，尽管通胀仍备受关注，但就业市场风险上升可能使美联储 在9月降息。降息预期走强的背景下，顺周期需求预期改善，导致商品和运输价格上涨。微观层面，美 湾WTI原油对中东原油价差走阔，西-东贸易套利窗口打开，长运距运输增加，船队西行后中东运力偏 紧。运力偏紧情况下，中东9月货盘持续，供需失衡导致运价大涨。Suezmax油轮运价强劲运营，高达6 万美元/天，部分需求外溢VLCC市场。 淡季拐点前置，右侧来临，关注旺季 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持航空油运快递增持评级。1)航空：暑运客流高峰开始回 落，预计9 月中旬公商务恢复。提示短期需求波动不改长逻辑，"反内卷"将三重受益。2)快递：多地或 将跟进提价，监管力度决定持续性，反内卷将保障良性竞争。3)油运：油运运价上行关注旺季，风险收 益比具吸引力。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 航空：高客座率倒逼票价回升，飞机订购不改规划低增 暑运临近收官，上周客流仍维持高位，高客座率倒逼裸票价回升并高于2024年同期低基数。该行预计 2025年暑运客流同比增超3%，客座率同比提升约1pct，公商需求意外走弱致国内含油票价同比降约4- 5%。 2)单票收入：7月行业单票收入同比-5.3%，圆通/韵达/顺丰同比-7.2%/-3.5%/-14%，降幅收窄反映"反内 卷"有效缓和竞争压力。7月上旬国家邮政局强调将旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争;随后义乌底价率先要求 提升约0.2元;8月广东多地跟进上调底价约0.4元;该行预计后续多地将跟进提价。相较于2021年快递反内 卷，此次监管力度超预期。短期有利于缓和竞争压力，下半年有望开启盈利修复;后续邮管局监管力度 或决定提价持续性与未来盈利弹 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，进入8月以来受OPEC+持续增产、美国以印度进口俄油为由 加征关税以及短期货盘影响，VLCC运价持续回升。以CTFI指数中的CT1航线(中东湾(沙特阿拉伯·拉斯 坦努拉)至中国宁波)为参考，其运价自7月底的不到2万美元/天回升至8月22日的4.71万美元/天(准航 速)。原油运尤其是VLCC市场供给相对刚性，合规市场需求在OPEC+增产节奏加快、美国持续加强对 伊朗和俄罗斯原油制裁的背景下迎来边际利好，且行业四季度进入传统旺季，预计运价中枢有望抬升。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 8月行业淡季，VLCC运价持续回升 2025年1月中旬至5月，VLCC运价基本维持较高位运行，其中4月运价突破5万美元/天，淡季不淡；6月 13日起，受伊朗和以色列冲突影响，中东地区航运风险增加，船东心理预期也进一步支撑运价，VLCC 运价由13日的1.84万美元/天快速涨至6月24日的7.22万美元/天；此后受伊以冲突结束影响，市场情绪降 温，运价持续回调。但进入8月以来受OPEC+持续增产、美国以印度进口俄油为由加征关税以及短期货 盘影响，VLCC运价持续回升。以CTFI指数中的CT1航线(中东 ...

General Overview - The document outlines the work system for the Secretary of the Board of Directors of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation, aiming to enhance corporate governance and clarify the responsibilities and authority of the board secretary [2]. Appointment of the Board Secretary - The board secretary is nominated by the chairman and appointed or dismissed by the board [4]. - The company must appoint a board secretary within three months after the initial public offering or within three months after the previous secretary's departure [4]. Qualifications for the Board Secretary - The board secretary must possess good professional ethics, necessary financial, management, and legal knowledge, relevant work experience, and a qualification certificate recognized by the stock exchange [3]. - Individuals with certain disqualifying conditions, such as recent administrative penalties or public reprimands, cannot serve as board secretary [3]. Responsibilities of the Board Secretary - The board secretary is responsible for information disclosure, investor relations management, organizing board and shareholder meetings, and ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [13]. - The secretary must maintain confidentiality regarding undisclosed significant information and report any leaks immediately [13][18]. Support and Cooperation - The company is required to provide necessary support for the board secretary to perform their duties, and other executives must cooperate with the secretary [16]. - The board secretary has the right to access financial and operational information and attend relevant meetings [15]. Transition and Reporting - In case of vacancy, the board must promptly appoint an acting secretary and announce it [12]. - Upon dismissal or resignation, the board secretary must undergo a review and complete the handover of responsibilities [11].

证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：2025-022 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 关于召开2025年第二次临时股东会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： (三)投票方式：本次股东会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合的方 式 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东会网络投票系统 二、 会议审议事项 本次股东会审议议案及投票股东类型 投票股东类型 网络投票起止时间：自2025 年 9 月 9 日 至2025 年 9 月 9 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股 东会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过互 联网投票平台的投票时间为股东会召开当日的 9:15-15:00。 (六)融资融券、转融通、约定购回业务账户和沪股通投资者的投票程序 涉及融资融券、转融通业务、约定购回业务相关账户以及沪股通投资者 的投票，应按照《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号 — 规范运 作》等有关规定执 ...

持有有限 股东性 持股比 持股 质押、标记 或冻结 股东名称 售条件的 质 例(%) 数量 的股份数量 股份数量 国有法 中国长江航运集团有限公司 29.99 1,440,017,683 0 无 0 人 中国工商银行股份有限公司 国有法 南京下关支行 人 中国太平洋人寿保险股份有 限公司－传统－普通保险产 其他 1.98 95,180,603 0 无 0 品 香港中央结算有限公司 其他 1.34 64,135,198 0 无 0 中国建设银行股份有限公司 国有法 江苏省分行 人 中国太平洋财产保险股份有 限公司－传统－普通保险产 其他 0.89 42,499,913 0 无 0 品－013C－CT001 沪 中国长城资产管理股份有限 国有法 公司 人 中国人寿保险股份有限公司 －传统－普通保险产品－ 其他 0.80 38,620,000 0 无 0 招商银行股份有限公司－南 方中证 1000 交易型开放式 其他 0.75 35,880,734 0 无 0 指数证券投资基金 中国太平洋人寿保险股份有 其他 0.59 28,164,271 0 无 0 招商局南京油运股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告摘要 限公司－ ...

资源品牛市，继续看好 20250824 摘要 中国高收益无风险资产稀缺，叠加资本市场改革提升可投资性，吸引超 高净值、高净值人群及实业资本入市，推动股市上涨。散户入市意愿虽 低，但未来或随无风险收益率下沉及改革推进而增加。 中国经济转型在人工智能、集成电路等领域取得进展，降低经济不确定 性，增强市场信心。无风险收益下沉促使资金涌向股票等资产管理需求 旺盛领域，推动市场整体上行。 预计 2025 年中国市场上升动力来自经济转型加速、无风险收益下沉和 资本市场改革。即使市场短暂调整，整体趋势仍然向好。 美联储降息预期升温，中美或进入宽松共振期。中国可能通过中国版 QE（央行购买长端国债）投放流动性，而非 LPR 降息，利好周期品投 资机会。 推荐关注金融（券商、银行、保险）、成长股（港股互联网传媒、创新 药、国防军工、算力、国潮品牌）、零售化妆品及周期品（有色金属、 化工、钢铁、建材）等板块。 中国经济转型对股市有何影响？ 中国经济转型加快，在人工智能、集成电路、创新药物以及国防军工领域取得 了显著进展。这些积极表现降低了中国经济的不确定性，提高了经济能见度。 随着这些领域的发展，中国经济的不确定性逐步下降，使得 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Steel Industry**: - Despite record high pig iron production, the decline in metallurgical coke and iron ore prices, along with increased steel billet exports, has not translated into growth in end demand, leading to a continuous drop in steel prices. Rebar profit margins are near breakeven levels [1][3] - Investment in steel stocks should focus on fundamental indicators and supply-demand relationships. After an initial valuation recovery, stocks fell in late March due to a lack of supporting fundamentals. It is recommended to preemptively invest in second-tier stocks benefiting from falling coke and iron ore prices, such as Liugang, Shougang, and Sansteel Mingguang, with significant profit growth expected in 2025 [1][13] - **Energy Metals**: - Strategic resources like rare earths and tungsten are affected by export control policies, with tungsten prices strengthening. The demand for humanoid robots and stabilization of macro demand are expected to drive a recovery in the rare earth market, with companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth being noteworthy [1][14][16] - The cobalt market is poised for a second wave of price increases due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum being highlighted [1][17] - Nickel prices are supported around $15,000 due to Indonesia's measures to strengthen pricing power, with a planned export ban from the Philippines in June 2025 potentially tightening supply [1][18][19] - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: - The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant downward trend due to weak fundamentals, with prices dropping below previous support levels. However, it is believed to have reached a cyclical bottom, making it a good time for long-term investments [1][20] - **Construction Materials**: - The construction materials sector is stable, with a slight improvement in new home sales. Investment opportunities include domestic alternatives and companies like Keda Manufacturing and China National Materials, which are expected to benefit from AI demand and high-end chip packaging materials [1][21] Key Insights and Arguments - **Steel Production vs. Demand**: - High pig iron production does not necessarily indicate strong downstream demand, as evidenced by the ongoing decline in steel prices. Factors such as lower prices for raw materials and increased exports of semi-finished products contribute to this disconnect [1][5][6][7] - **Investment Strategy**: - The steel sector's key indicators include steel prices and gross profit per ton. If these do not align, it hampers the potential for performance recovery. Investors should closely monitor these metrics to adjust strategies accordingly [1][10][11] - **Future Recommendations**: - For 2025, it is advised to focus on second-tier stocks that will benefit from lower raw material costs, which will enhance profitability. Companies like Liugang and Shougang are expected to show significant profit growth [1][13] Additional Important Content - **OPEC's Impact on Oil and Aviation**: - OPEC's recent production increases are expected to benefit oil transportation and aviation sectors, with a projected 20% decrease in fuel costs leading to improved profitability in the aviation industry [4][22][24] - **Chemical Industry Opportunities**: - The chemical sector is seeing opportunities due to the gradual lifting of export restrictions on fertilizers, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Luxi Chemical being highlighted for potential gains [4][26] - **Market Dynamics**: - The coal market is currently under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, but upcoming seasonal demand may stabilize prices. Recommendations include focusing on low-cost producers like Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal [1][45][46][47] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries.

油运专题 - 旺季运价怎么看？20250806 摘要 2025 年上半年 OPEC 实际产量增加不明显，主要因"产量补偿计划" 抵消部分增产，但预计 9 月后增产效果将更明显，刺激游轮运输需求。 OPEC 计划年底考虑进一步增产 160 万桶/日，加上已复产的 220 万桶/ 日，将持续刺激原油海运贸易，对游轮运输产生积极影响。 美国可能对购买俄油国家实施二级关税制裁，若伊朗完全脱离俄油供应 链，中东将成主要替代来源，利好 VLCC 船队。 中东冲突若导致政策变化，将强烈催化短期运价，预计今年旺季运价可 达 8-18 万以上，明年中枢水平可能达 6-7 万。 美国对俄油和伊朗油贸易的制裁，导致影子船队需求增加，二手老旧 VLCC 交易活跃，加剧运力紧张。 国内大型国营电厂仍依赖合规原油供应，叠加 OPEC 增产放量，国内炼 厂将顺周期补库，石化需求预期向好。 关注美俄贸易政策和制裁情况，大规模制裁将催化短期股价。9 月中东 增产量将在出口量上体现，四季度 OPEC 增产表述将决定明年运价走势。 Q&A 目前油运市场的供给情况如何？ 从供给角度来看，新造船数量非常有限。2025 年仅有 7 艘新造船交付，而过 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that the average tariff rate in the U.S. will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% due to new tariffs announced by Trump [1] - Deutsche Bank's independent analysis suggests that the new average tariff rate could exceed 18% [1] - If Trump continues to implement additional trade measures, the overall average tariff rate in the U.S. could increase by up to 6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the dollar may soon trade as a "high-risk" currency, but the permanent shift in its safe-haven appeal has not yet been observed [2] - Citigroup analysts believe that Trump's tariffs will abruptly close the window for copper exports to the U.S., potentially lasting through the remainder of 2025 [3] - Barclays warns that proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals could lead to significant price increases and shortages, impacting consumers directly [7] Group 3 - UBS has closed its long positions in U.S. Treasuries, waiting for higher yields to re-enter the market [5] - Standard Chartered reports that reserve managers appear to be deliberately increasing their dollar holdings amid pressures on the currency [6] - Singapore's OCBC Bank predicts a shift towards a more fragmented global order, leading to sustained inflation and a weaker dollar over the next five to ten years [9] Group 4 - The Dutch Cooperative Bank notes a rebound in the dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the medium term [10] - Citic Securities highlights opportunities in the copper sector as prices are expected to return to fundamental levels amid low inventories [11] - Citic Jian Investment reports ongoing global fund rebalancing, with continued outflows from U.S. equities [12]