VLCC 有效运力呈现隐形收缩趋势，2024-2025 年新船交付几乎真空， 大量老旧船舶流入影子船队，对主流合规市场贡献小，新船订单更多是 置换而非新增，有效运力三年内增速有限。 制裁与影子船队是支撑大周期运行的重要因素，欧盟和英国联合制裁影 子船队，美国加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，引发租家抢订合规船只的需 求，逐步减少老旧不合规船只。 至 4 倍。这些变化进一步推高了运价。 当前高位运行是否具有持续性？ 对话油轮专家：运价持续突破，后续市场如何展望？ 20251123 摘要 俄乌冲突重塑全球原油贸易格局，导致俄罗斯至欧洲的短程贸易转向远 东和印度等长航线，显著拉长平均航程，推高吨海里数，成为油运市场 运价上涨的关键因素。 VLCC 有效运力收缩明显，上周可追踪的 VLCC 货盘成交量达 67 艘，高 于年内平均水平，中东未来 30 天可用 VLCC 船位紧张，供给偏紧支撑 运价高位运行，且市场对高景气度持续性抱有信心。 地缘政治风险放大油运市场波动，俄罗斯原油出口转向中东、印度和美 国，欧盟对俄原油禁运及价格上限政策持续升级，进一步拉长运输距离， 显著增加吨海里数，推高整体运价。 VLCC 市场核心驱动因素 ...

周期论剑｜跨年周期策略展望 20251123 摘要 尽管当前市场普遍谨慎，但我们仍坚决看好中国市场前景。首先，从调整幅度 来看，上证指数回撤 5%，创业板回调 12%，科创 50 下跌近 20%，恒生科技 下跌约 22%。这种调整时间和空间与历次牛市主线回调期间相当，恐慌抛售风 险已充分释放。其次，随着进入 12 月份，对政策端催化作用的预期增加，有 望建立新的经济增长预期。此外，近期监管举措积极，如中金公司合并信息发 钢铁行业需求逐渐见底，供给端受反内卷政策及供应收缩影响下降，西 芒杜铁矿投产有望降低成本，明年资本开支将大幅下降，看好钢铁龙头 公司的逢低布局机会。 电煤中长期合同定价机制市场化改革，增强了煤炭企业在周期底部的盈 利确定性。三产中的新兴产业业态是煤炭需求端的核心驱动力，看好 26 年以后的整体需求端。 布、16 只硬科技 ETF 迅速获批等，都显示出稳定资本市场的决心。最后，美 联储 12 月降息概率从 30%-40%升至 70%以上，这些因素使得市场在下周进 入较好的布局阶段。 市场投资风格是否会发生变化？应如何布局？ 市场投资风格将从之前关注杠铃策略或单纯估值扩张转向质量策略和紧急投资 策 ...

全球市场回调，周期怎么看？20251123 摘要 上周风险资产下跌，上证指数跌破趋势线，但美联储释放宽松信号后美 股修复，短期内市场大幅下跌风险降低。交运板块受中日航线减班影响， 但三大航受影响较小，春秋航空和吉祥航空调整幅度较大，华夏航空未 受影响。 快递行业 10 月数据和中通三季度财报利好，圆通、申通提价，圆通量 增速最快，韵达下滑。中通财报稳住股价，预计反内卷趋势持续至 2026 上半年，四季度及明年一季度财报或亮眼，推荐圆通、申通。 油运板块运价创多年新高后回调但坚挺，旺季或超预期，运价仍有上涨 空间，看好招商轮船和海能 H。极兔国际管理层持续回购股份，增强投 资者信心，看好其在东南亚及新兴市场成长性。 化工板块 CCPI 指数与上周持平，WTI 和布伦特原油期货下跌，化工产 值指数下跌。四季度为需求淡季，涨价可持续性待明年一季度验证。涤 纶长丝、黏胶短纤、农化等子行业各有特点，关注相关龙头企业。 六氟磷酸锂价格大幅上涨，电解液及添加剂价格也快速上涨，储能需求 拉动盈利，预计 2026 年明显修复，推荐新宙邦及联化科技。有机硅行 业达成减产共识，价格上涨，预计 2026 年供需明显改善，关注龙头公 ...

中信证券：当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 11月23日，十大券商最新策略观点新鲜出炉，具体如下： | 券商 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 | | 华安证券 | AI主线"至暗时刻" 但长期信心坚定不移 | | 国金证券 | 打铁还需自身硬 | | 信达证券 | 风格切换可能会越来越强 关注低位价值板块 | | 中泰证券 | 本轮科技行情远未结束 在短期回调后有望延续 | | 兴业证券 | 中国资产有望迎来修复 | | 非金证券 | 短期继续均衡配置补涨的成长和低估值价值行业 | | 申万宏源 | 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" | | 浙商证券 | 切勿盲目杀跌 盯券商、等待弹性重扩张 | | 东吴证券 | 资金主线有望向AI应用等方向切换 | 全球风险资产的波动表面是流动性问题，本质是风险资产对于AI单一叙事过于依赖，当产业发展速度（尤其是商业 化）跟不上二级市场的节奏时，适当的估值修正也是一种纾解风险的方式。北京时间周四（11月20日）晚，美国非农 就业数据的公布以及年内美联 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares indices opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.35%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.03%, and ChiNext Index up 1.79% [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities continues to recommend cyclical sectors such as aviation, oil transportation, and road infrastructure, citing improved industrial production and export conditions, as well as a moderate recovery in consumer data [2] - The aviation sector is expected to see continued recovery in revenue levels due to low supply growth, industry self-regulation, and a low base effect [2] - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+/Americas production increases and low oil prices [2] - The road infrastructure sector is seen as having upward potential due to attractive dividend yields and increased insurance fund allocations [2] Group 3: Industry Focus - CITIC Construction Investment is optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry, expecting demand to recover by year-end and improvements in fundamentals and valuations [3] - The blood products sector is highlighted for its focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma station construction and industry consolidation [3] - The vaccine industry is monitored for sales improvements of key products and progress in innovative pipelines, with policies and international expansion expected to drive further development [3] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is undergoing steady transformation, with attention on multi-faceted catalysts for growth [3] - The pharmaceutical distribution sector shows stable revenue growth, with a focus on receivables and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations yesterday, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closing in the green. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion, a decrease of 200.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the highest gains included precious metals, military industry, and aquaculture, while sectors such as Hainan, gas, and film and television box office experienced declines. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25% [1]. Investment Recommendations Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities continues to recommend cyclical aviation, trading in oil transportation, and allocation in highways. The firm notes that external uncertainties have settled, leading to a recovery in industrial production and export sentiment, along with a mild rebound in consumer data. Specifically, they expect: 1. Aviation: October ticket prices continue to improve, supported by low supply growth and a low base, indicating a sustained recovery in industry profitability. 2. Oil Transportation: Multiple favorable factors, including OPEC+/U.S. production increases and low oil prices, are expected to maintain high activity levels in the oil transportation sector. 3. Highways: With insurance funds beginning year-end allocations, the highway sector is anticipated to have upward potential due to attractive dividend yields [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry, anticipating a recovery in demand by year-end and subsequent improvements in fundamentals and valuations. They highlight: - The easing of short-term base pressure and accelerated channel inventory clearance. - The potential for innovative areas to create a second growth curve, with significant brand extension opportunities for Chinese medicine consumer goods. - Attention to the blood products sector regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma stations and industry consolidation, as well as the vaccine sector's product sales and innovation pipeline [3]. Tianfeng Securities - Tianfeng Securities suggests focusing on the recovery opportunities in the liquor sector, noting a "volume increase, price drop" trend during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival. Key points include: - Traditional e-commerce platforms saw major liquor prices fall below critical levels due to inventory pressures, while emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin experienced growth. - Liquor companies are actively combating counterfeiting and stabilizing prices through authorized and unauthorized listings. - The industry is shifting from price wars to value reconstruction, emphasizing high-quality products and refined channel operations. The current dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [4].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，华泰证券研报表示，近期外部不确定性落地，工业生产及出口景气度回升，消费数据温 和回暖，看好：1. 航空：10月票价延续改善趋势，考虑到供给低增速+行业反内卷+低基数，行业收益 水平的回暖有望延续。2. 油运：OPEC+/美洲增产+跨区域油价差套利+低油价带动补库+地缘事件扰动 等多重利好共振下，油运板块高景气有望延续。3. 公路：保险资金年末开启配置"开门红"，市场风险偏 好有所震荡，叠加AH公路股息率均有吸引力，板块仍有上行空间。此外，持续推荐具备自身Alpha的部 分个股。 ...

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery trend in ticket prices due to low supply growth, industry self-regulation, and a low base effect [1] - The overall revenue levels in the aviation sector are anticipated to improve [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation sector is projected to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+/U.S. production increases, cross-regional price arbitrage, low oil prices boosting inventory replenishment, and geopolitical disturbances [1] Group 3: Highway Sector - The highway sector is expected to have upward potential as insurance funds begin year-end allocations, and the market's risk appetite experiences fluctuations [1] - The attractive dividend yields of AH highway stocks contribute to the sector's appeal [1] Group 4: Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with traditional e-commerce platforms seeing prices fall below critical levels due to dealer inventory pressures and platform subsidies [2] - Emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin are showing growth, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards "buy now, drink now" [2] - Major liquor companies are initiating anti-counterfeiting actions to stabilize prices and balance online and offline channel interests [2] Group 5: Traditional Chinese Medicine Sector - The traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to see demand recovery by year-end, with inventory levels clearing up [3] - There are opportunities for fundamental and valuation improvements in the sector [3] - The innovation sector is seen as a potential second growth curve for traditional Chinese medicine companies [3] Group 6: Blood Products and Vaccine Industries - The blood products sector is focused on the "14th Five-Year" plan for plasma station construction and industry consolidation [3] - The vaccine industry is monitoring sales improvements of key products and progress in innovative pipelines, with policies and international expansion expected to drive further development [3]

Group 1: Aviation and Transportation - The aviation sector is expected to continue its recovery due to improved ticket prices in October, low supply growth, and a low base effect [1] - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+ production increases, cross-regional price arbitrage, and geopolitical events [1] - The highway sector shows potential for upward movement as insurance funds begin year-end allocations, and highway stocks offer attractive dividend yields [1] Group 2: Alcohol Industry - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase and price drop" phenomenon, with traditional platforms seeing prices fall below key thresholds due to inventory pressures [2] - Emerging retail channels are growing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards immediate consumption [2] - The industry is advised to transition from price wars to value reconstruction, focusing on high-quality products and refined channel operations [2] Group 3: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Pharmaceuticals - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to see demand recovery by year-end, with inventory pressures easing [3] - The blood products industry is focusing on the "14th Five-Year" plan for plasma stations and industry consolidation, with increased demand for specific products [3] - The vaccine sector is monitoring sales improvements and innovation pipeline developments, with policies and international expansion likely to drive growth [3]

每经AI快讯，华泰证券研报表示，近期外部不确定性落地，工业生产及出口景气度回升，消费数据温 和回暖，看好：1.航空：10月票价延续改善趋势，考虑到供给低增速+行业反内卷+低基数，行业收益水 平的回暖有望延续。2.油运：OPEC+/美洲增产+跨区域油价差套利+低油价带动补库+地缘事件扰动等多 重利好共振下，油运板块高景气有望延续。3.公路：保险资金年末开启配置"开门红"，市场风险偏好有 所震荡，叠加AH公路股息率均有吸引力，板块仍有上行空间。此外，持续推荐具备自身Alpha的部分个 股。 ...