Q&A 2026 年 VLCC 运价的主要逻辑是什么？ 2026 年 VLCC 运价的主要逻辑不仅包括传统的供需平衡和淡旺季因素，还涉 及地缘政治对影子船队物理安全屏障的击穿。近期，委内瑞拉、伊朗和俄罗斯 等国家的局势变化导致灰色供给和需求被迫正规化，从而推高运价。过去几年， 约 20%的油轮运力在灰色市场运营，这些影子船队依赖于特定势力范围内的物 理安全屏障。然而，自 2020 年以来，这些屏障正从多个方向被击穿，例如美 军抓捕马杜罗、伊朗国内动荡以及乌克兰在黑海对俄罗斯影子船队发起攻击。 这些事件使得灰色供给逐渐退出市场或转为正规化，从而导致合规运力收紧， 合规溢价扩大。 近期 VLCC 运价走势如何？ 对话油轮专家：委内事件如何影响油运市场？20260112 摘要 灰色供给受地缘政治冲击被迫正规化，合规运力收紧，推高 VLCC 运价。 美军行动、伊朗动荡及乌克兰袭击削弱影子船队，促使灰色运力退出或 转向合规，合规溢价扩大。 VLCC 运价在 2025 年末经历急跌后反弹，交易量增加消耗运力，春节 前备货需求启动，预计未来几周运输需求将增加，支撑运价。 委内瑞拉局势变化，美国恢复原油贸易并限制石油收入，要 ...

消息面上，据报道，美国能源部长赖特在迈阿密一次能源会议上阐述了特朗普政府设想的方案，即美国 将无限期控制委内瑞拉石油的流通和销售，以及由此产生的收入。赖特在会上表示："我们不会像现在 这样封锁石油，而是会让市场自由流动，让石油流入美国炼油厂和世界各地，从而带来更好的石油供 应。"国金证券认为，这会让原油从黑船市场向合规市场转移，利好合规市场需求，且拉长油运运距。 中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.42%，报11.09港元，成交额2.43亿港元。 国泰海通证券指出，过去一周，假期后中东美湾货盘逐步增加，有船东加大租船提高供给控制力，船东 对后市预期乐观而放缓报价，中东-中国航线VLCCTCE快速回升至近6万美元。提示短期运价影响因素 众多，建议关注运价中枢趋势，把握淡季市场分歧与布局时机。该行预计油运景气有望继续超预期上 行，全球原油增产将继续驱动油运需求超预期增长，油轮加速老龄化与影子船队制裁将保障合规运力供 给刚性持续。地缘局势将可能提供意外期权。 ...

交运- 2025 年运价再创新高，2026 年期待超级牛市 20260109 摘要 2024 年下半年油运市场面临压力测试，但 2025 年上半年景气度显著 回升，主要得益于油价中枢回落、炼厂开工率上升以及美国对伊朗制裁 升级，使得合规市场供需改善，产能利用率接近阈值。 2025 年 8 月起，油运市场景气快速飙升，VLCC TCE 运价翻倍至 10 万 美元以上，主要驱动力包括 OPEC+加速增产、委内瑞拉大幅增产以及 美国加强对俄罗斯和印度的制裁，促使印度减少俄油进口转向合规原油。 未来几年，全球原油增产趋势将持续，OPEC+预计在 2026 年 10 月完 成增产计划，委内瑞拉也将大幅增产，同时美国制裁促使部分国家增加 合规原油进口，有望继续提升行业景气水平。 灰色市场变化对合规市场具有利好逻辑，美国加强对影子船队及相关国 家的制裁，降低了灰色船队运输效率，改善了合规市场供需状态，例如 2025 年初美国加码对伊朗及全球影子船队的制裁。 地缘局势变化对油运行业有显著影响，若未来美国放松对委内瑞拉、俄 罗斯和伊朗等国的制裁，这些国家的灰色市场原油出口可能转为合规市 场，增加合规市场的运输规模。 Q&A 2 ...

记者丨赵云帆 编辑丨朱益民 地缘政治激化，全球油价猛涨，本周，国际油价全周累计上涨，其中美油期货主力合约价格累计上涨3.14%；布油期货主力合约价格累计上涨4.26%，全球 油轮股本周也开启暴涨！ 在全球地缘政治局势的扰动下，本周包括A股油运公司在内的全球油轮市场出现了难得一见的迅猛行情。 截至1月9日收盘，A股VLCC（超大型油轮）企业招商轮船（601872.SH）本周累计上涨9.47%，中远海能（600026.SH）累计上涨8.82%，中远海能H股 （01138.HK）本周涨幅为8.79%。 更靓丽的走势则出现在美股市场，其中大型油轮企业DHT控股，Frontline、CMB.TECH三家公司截至美国时间周四收盘分别上涨14.4%，18.7%和 19.85%。 A股油轮双雄释放积极信号 800亿巨头业绩预增200% 尽管地缘局势混乱导致运价震荡，A股两家超大型邮轮巨头股价却相对坚挺。其中招商轮船股价于1月9日最高触及10.08元/股，创下2015年7月以来的新高。 两大巨头也在近期主动释放积极经营信号。 1月8日，招商轮船业绩预告显示，公司预计2025年实现归母净利润60亿至66亿元，同比增约17%到29 ...

记者丨 赵云帆 编辑丨朱益民 地缘政治激化，全球油价猛涨，本周，国际油价全周累计上涨，其中美油期货主力合约价格累计上涨3.14%；布油期货主力合约价格累计上涨 4.26%，全球 油轮 股本周也开启暴涨！ 另一巨头中远海能，也公告加大资本开支计划，展示其对油轮运输市场的信心。公告显示，公司将召开临时股东大会，审议包括新造四艘11万 吨级油轮，12艘MR型和2艘LR1型油轮的议案。 运价或再度迎来上涨 自去年12月底以来， 运输产自委内瑞拉原油的"影子舰队"VLCC（即因欧美制裁被排除于合规运力之外的油轮）遭到美国方面集中追捕和扣押 。截至今年1月7日，遭到扣押的"影子船队"数量已经合计达到四艘。 在全球地缘政治局势的扰动下，本周包括A股油运公司在内的全球油轮市场出现了难得一见的迅猛行情。 截至1月9日收盘，A股VLCC（超大型油轮）企业招商轮船（601872.SH）本周累计上涨9.47%，中远海能（600026.SH）累计上涨8.82%，中 远海能H股（01138.HK）本周涨幅为8.79%。 | | Al父易荣略 F9 | (?) WP | | 9.83 +0.23 +2.40% | | | | | 招商轮船 ...

在全球地缘政治局势的扰动下，本周包括A股油运公司在内的全球油轮市场出现了难得一见的迅猛行 情。 截至1月9日收盘，A股VLCC（超大型油轮）企业招商轮船（601872.SH）本周累计上涨9.47%，中远海 能（600026.SH）累计上涨8.82%，中远海能H股（01138.HK）本周涨幅为8.79%。 更靓丽的走势则出现在美股市场，其中大型油轮企业DHT控股，Frontline、CMB.TECH三家公司截至美 国时间周四收盘分别上涨14.4%，18.7%和19.85%。 自去年12月底以来，运输产自委内瑞拉原油的"影子舰队"VLCC（即因欧美制裁被排除于合规运力之外 的油轮）遭到美国方面集中追捕和扣押。截至今年1月7日，遭到扣押的"影子船队"数量已经合计达到四 艘。 去年12月10日，美国在委内瑞拉附近海域首次扣押"斯基珀号"油轮，指控其涉及"非法石油运输网络"。 12月20日，第二起扣押行动再度于委内瑞拉附近海域执行。 市场分析认为，随着"影子船队"在不断的制裁行动下的可运输范围逐渐收缩，"合规"油轮运力或将逐渐 替代"影子船队"成为地缘政治激化地区的原油运力，这导致合规运力本身供给趋紧，运价或再度迎来上 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The U.S. military's raid on Venezuela is expected to boost oil shipping demand. Since December 2025, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, limiting oil exports. Following the raid on January 3, 2026, it was announced that Venezuela may transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., potentially easing sanctions and increasing compliant market shipping volumes [7] - Short-term oil exports from Venezuela may remain constrained, but long-term legalization could enhance compliant market shipping demand. Venezuela's oil production is projected to account for about 1% of global output by 2025, with oil shipping exports making up around 2% of global exports. Currently, 17% of these exports go to the U.S., with over 50% shipped to Asia via shadow fleets [7] - The tightening of sanctions since 2025 has improved oil shipping supply and demand dynamics. The U.S. has intensified sanctions on Iranian shadow fleets, increasing the proportion of sanctioned VLCCs from 8% to 17%. This is expected to further reduce Iranian oil export efficiency, while OPEC+ production increases may help balance the market [7] - Oil shipping rates are anticipated to rise significantly in 2025 due to ongoing crude oil production increases and continued sanctions on shadow fleets. The oil shipping market is expected to recover, with potential for better-than-expected conditions in 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026, not rated) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872, not rated) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping industry has experienced a four-year upward trend, with expectations that tanker profitability could reach a ten-year high by 2025. The capital market shows significant divergence regarding future trends in oil shipping, indicating potential opportunities for investment [1]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Long-term Logic - The first phase of the oil shipping boom is driven by geopolitical conflicts, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has restructured global oil trade and increased average shipping distances, leading to a significant rise in demand [1]. - The second phase is anticipated to be driven by global oil production increases, particularly with OPEC+ expected to commence production increases in April 2025, transitioning from a reduction to an expansion phase in global oil supply [1]. - The aging fleet of oil tankers, combined with stricter environmental regulations and sanctions on shadow fleets, is expected to maintain a rigid supply of compliant market capacity, supporting continued demand growth in the oil shipping sector [1]. Group 2: 2025 Outlook - The oil shipping market is projected to experience a significant recovery in 2025, with tanker capacity utilization expected to rise to threshold levels, making rates sensitive to marginal supply and demand changes [2]. - The average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCTCE) are estimated to reach $51,000 in 2025, surpassing the $36,000 forecast for 2023-2024, indicating a potential ten-year high in tanker profitability [2]. - The oil shipping industry has been on an upward trajectory since 2022, marking four consecutive years of growth [2]. Group 3: Gray Market and Compliance - The tightening of sanctions by the U.S. on Iran and shadow fleets has led to a decline in operational efficiency for these fleets, while the shift of India from Russian oil to compliant crude is expected to benefit the compliant market [3]. - Recent U.S. measures against Venezuela may impact its oil exports, potentially driving an increase in compliant oil production and benefiting the compliant market supply [3]. - Future geopolitical developments, particularly regarding sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, could significantly expand the compliant oil shipping market and reduce the operational space for shadow fleets, accelerating the dismantling of older tankers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping industry has experienced a continuous uptrend for four years, with expectations for a super bull market driven by supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Long Logic - The first phase of the oil shipping boom is driven by geopolitical conflicts, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has restructured global oil trade, increasing average shipping distances and demand by over 10% [1]. - The second phase is anticipated to be fueled by global oil production increases starting from April 2025, as OPEC+ shifts from a production cut cycle to an increase cycle, which is expected to boost oil shipping demand [1]. - The aging fleet of oil tankers, combined with stricter environmental regulations and sanctions on shadow fleets, will likely maintain a rigid supply in the compliant market, supporting continued demand growth [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2025 - In the second half of 2025, oil shipping rates are expected to surge, potentially reaching a ten-year high in tanker profitability, with estimates for VLCC TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) at $51,000, up from $36,000 in 2023-24 [2]. - The oil shipping market will face pressure tests in late 2024 due to geopolitical oil prices and Iranian production increases, but a significant recovery is expected in early 2025 as oil prices stabilize [2]. - The combined effects of OPEC+ and South American production increases, along with India's shift to compliant oil imports, will drive high tanker utilization rates and elevated shipping rates [2]. Group 3: Focus on the Grey Market - The tightening of sanctions by the U.S. on Iran and shadow fleets has led to a decline in operational efficiency for these fleets, benefiting the compliant oil market [3]. - The recent U.S. measures against Venezuela are expected to impact its oil exports, potentially driving compliant oil production and benefiting the compliant market [3]. - Future geopolitical developments, such as the potential lifting of sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, could significantly expand the compliant oil shipping market and reduce the grey market's operational space [3]. Group 4: Seasonal Risks and Investment Recommendations - The oil shipping industry has seen a four-year upward trend, with expectations for tanker profitability to reach a ten-year high in 2025 [4]. - The capital market shows significant divergence regarding future trends in oil shipping, indicating potential for substantial gains [4]. - The recent seasonal price adjustments in the oil shipping market are in line with expectations, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investment during the off-season [4].

| | | 全球VLCC运价创2008年来的新高。 2025年一季度，运价受OPEC增产预期和红海冲突初现影响，从年初4万美元/天升至5-6万美元/天；二 季度维持在6万美元/天左右。 三季度因中东夏季用油高峰，运价回落至4万美元/天附近；但进入四季度后，运价从9月的6.5万美元/ 天飙升至12月的12.5万美元/天（中东-中国航线），部分航线甚至达到21.8万美元/天的极端高位，创 下2008年以来的新高。 委内瑞拉是全球石油资源最丰富的国家，已探明石油储量超过3000亿桶，占全球已探明储量的17%。 当地局势的剧烈变动，从马杜罗被捕到可能的政权更迭，不仅改变了南美的地缘政治格局，更是对全 球能源市场产生深远影响。 目前其直观影响体现在油运运价方面，1月3日当天波罗的海原油运价指数飙升5%，美湾-加勒比航线 VLCC（超大型原油运输船）日租金更是单日上涨22%。 映射到国内市场，谁又会是受益者呢？ "黑船队"供给受限，VLCC运价高企 实际上在2025年内，VLCC运价走势呈现明显的"阶梯式上涨"特征。 而国内VLCC龙头此前在投资者关系活动记录明确指出： 随着美国制裁委内瑞拉持续加码，推动全球 原油运输向 ...