Core Insights - The flu activity in southern China is on the rise, with experts predicting an earlier flu season this year compared to previous years [1] - The market for flu vaccines is currently dominated by quadrivalent vaccines, while trivalent vaccines are nearly absent from the self-paid market, leading to a price war among vaccine providers [1][5] Vaccine Availability and Pricing - In Chengdu, several community health centers offer quadrivalent vaccines at a price of 118 yuan per dose, while a specific quadrivalent vaccine from Zhonghui Biological is priced at 349 yuan per dose [2] - The production strategy of vaccine manufacturers has shifted towards quadrivalent vaccines due to higher profit margins, resulting in a significant decrease in the availability of trivalent vaccines in the self-paid market [5][6] Market Dynamics - In 2023, the total number of flu vaccine batches approved for release was 288, with quadrivalent vaccines accounting for 163 batches and trivalent vaccines for 101 batches [7] - The quadrivalent vaccine has become the dominant product in the flu vaccine market, reflecting a trend of increasing consumer preference for vaccines perceived to offer better protection [8] Price Trends - The price of quadrivalent vaccines has dropped significantly, with some prices falling from three-digit to two-digit figures, impacting the profit margins of vaccine manufacturers [10] - For instance, the price of a trivalent vaccine was recorded at 5.5 yuan per dose, marking a new low in the public flu vaccine market [9] Industry Challenges - The flu vaccine market faces challenges such as low vaccination rates and fluctuations in demand, which can lead to "big years" and "small years" in terms of vaccine uptake [11] - The current flu strains circulating, particularly the H3N2 strain, may lead to lower immunity levels in the population, emphasizing the importance of vaccination [12]

Group 1 - Recent announcements from vaccination points in cities like Guangzhou, Xi'an, Changzhou, and Jinan indicate a phase of tight supply or shortage of certain flu vaccines [1][3] - Different community health centers report varying shortages, with some lacking quadrivalent flu virus split vaccines and others facing shortages of quadrivalent flu subunit vaccines [1][3][5] - The demand for quadrivalent split flu vaccines has surged due to their lower price, leading to temporary supply tightness [3][5] Group 2 - As of November 5, 2023, some health centers reported limited availability of quadrivalent subunit flu vaccines, with quadrivalent split flu vaccines completely out of stock [5][6] - The increase in vaccination demand is attributed to the earlier onset of the flu season, with local disease control centers placing orders based on regional needs [6][9] - The supply of quadrivalent subunit flu vaccines is constrained by production capacity, as only Jiangsu Zhonghui Biological provides this type, with an annual production capacity of 4 million doses [9] Group 3 - The overall flu vaccine supply in China is gradually increasing, with the number of approved flu vaccines reaching 26 by July 2025, including 12 quadrivalent vaccines [7][11] - The flu vaccination rate in China remains significantly lower than in the U.S., with only 3.8% during the 2022-2023 flu season compared to 49.3% in the U.S. [11] - Forecasts suggest that China's flu vaccination rate could rise to approximately 9% to 9.5% by 2029 and further to about 15% to 15.5% by 2033, approaching levels seen in Western countries [12]